welp, nvm your calculation says its good thing (cant edit my post)
DV 2021 ALL SELECTEES
- Thread starter Trintous
- Start date
welp, nvm your calculation says its good thing (cant edit my post)
coffeemonster
Well-Known Member
Britsimon says EU is at least 50k here. That was early in the process so it's unlikely to be the highest number. And in this video from yesterday it looks like he has EU55k (that's marked as a "guess" but obviously it's an educated guess)
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah, its over 55k.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
THe response rates, denial rates, derivative growth rates (adds at least 10% numbers) are key to those sorts of calculations. I think your 50% number is optimistic (but no one knows because this year will be different to older years with new procedures and rules). But as I have said in my videos, so are the aspects such as COVID, the election and so on.
Masda
Member
it is bad actually, it means that there is fewer gaps between numbers. In normal year without Trump and Pandemic maximum cut off with this type of draw for EU would be 20k. Visa Quota would be fulfilled early for EU.
coffeemonster
Well-Known Member
But just to be clear though, it isn't that low, it's actually quite high (> 55k as mentioned above).
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Number if holes doesn't matter, and as pinted out, the OP has some incorrect assumptions.
Myself, husband and youngest child interviewed and have received our (DV2020) green cards (outside of the US). Our 17yr old was in the US on a student visa when we interviewed, so did not interview and does not have a visa. Am I able to still organise an interview for her? As she is a minor we won't be able to leave her behind when we make our permanent move to the US.
Bettydv 2021
New Member
I have heard of 92*** and 97*** and i think they are both from Kenya
They are really high numbers
Bettydv 2021
New Member
Yeah,and maybe we have higher than those.
PhantomHigh
Active Member
Congratulations!!!!
PhantomHigh
Active Member
Hello everybody!
Glad to be on this thread.
Congratulations for all Asia winners and I hope to hear anyone from AS getting document submission email
My CN: 2021AS17XXX
Glad to be on this thread.
Congratulations for all Asia winners and I hope to hear anyone from AS getting document submission email
My CN: 2021AS17XXX
usimdo
New Member
I hope you are right but I have never heard about anything more than 39xxx in DV2021. There is also a table in google docs filled by Russian and exUSSR community where selected applicants fill they data to track process. I see there maximum is 39xxx case too. I can not paste URL due to forum restriction. Sorry.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Russia and some of the ex ussr countries (Ukraine, Uzbekistan) normally get cut off in allocations because of the large numbers of applicants, and judging by the number of selectees this year (between 5300 and 6000 for these three) it looks like this has happened again. Because of that, you will not see a full spread across all possible case numbers for these countries, so they are not a good guide as to what the highest CN is. This is explained in more detail (and probably much more clearly than I have done) both somewhere on this forum in the past and somewhere on the britsimonsays website - sorry I do not have time to search those references right now.
usimdo
New Member
To be honest, this poll from some open FB Group does not look very reliable as most of voters might not have a case number at all, just randomly voted to see percents .. But again, I might be wrong, I just do not see anyone who can say "My number is higher then EU 395xx ".
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
You can’t just randomly decide to accept what some internet people say and discard others. Again- if your total sample is FSU it is skewed down. Anyway all will be revealed when it becomes possible to scrape the numbers from CEAC.
Masda
Member
I agree with you. I have not seen any real people with case number more than 39k . In Turkish excel file the highest number is 39k as well. We have a telegram group with 400 participants. We are in touch in daily basis. Nobody have seen more than 39k for EU yet.