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DV 2021 ALL SELECTEES

aldv33k said:
Hi guys, I am from Albania (Europe) just found this great forum, first of all wish healthiness to everybody.

I am the principal applicant/winner for dv2021, my case number is 33k. for the moment I have not done any steps or process for form ds-260.

if somebody can assist or can advise what is appropriate to do in this situation. Thanks for your time and consideration.
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well as i think it is better to at least fill it and prepare it (submitting the DS260 is up to you when you can see it appropriate )
there are many websites and youtube videos you can watch
but first read this from Britsimon http://britsimonsays.com/completing-the-ds260-for-dv-lottery-entrants/
as it has the information you are looking for

Regards
 
Chunky2k said:
I doubt there is quota for each region
But no country can have over 7% of the total visas available
Click to expand...
there is a regional quota, as with the overall aim of DV the point is to tip the balance of favor for those from regions that send fewer immigrants to the US, and that’s why it is easier to get selected in some regions (hello OC) than others. You can read link posted above, also I seem to recall someone had explained it quite well on the Wikipedia page for DV.
 
Sarah S said:
Anyone know about second draw? If it happens this time, how and why that will happen ? Is it out of selectees.
Click to expand...

When we talk about a second draw, it is when more selectees are added, starting from the highest case number on the first draw. Because this year already has enough selectees, there will not be a second draw this year.
 
What is the highest EU case number for 2021? I've seen 39k+ as highest.

Knowing highest case, we can figure out density of cases in each thousand.
And knowing approximate success rate ( arount 50% according to CEAC datasets ) we can count mathematical highest case for EU region ( same can be done for other regions, I'm just interested in EU, sorry ).

My calculation:
45002 number of selected
1.95 derivatives coefficient
19710 quota of EU region per visas according to Brit last YouTube - EU - analysis
39500 approximate maximum number I have seen so far
0.5 - i'm not certain, this was a roughly taken from the CEAC data sets looking at 19 and 20 years for the early numbers. I.e. for 10 approved cases, 1 or 2 refuses and 8-9 no answers from applicant.

(19710 / ((( 45000 / 1.95 ) / 39000) * 0.5) * 1.95) =
.
.
.
34163 cases
 
usimdo said:
What is the highest EU case number for 2021? I've seen 39k+ as highest.

Knowing highest case, we can figure out density of cases in each thousand.
And knowing approximate success rate ( arount 50% according to CEAC datasets ) we can count mathematical highest case for EU region ( same can be done for other regions, I'm just interested in EU, sorry ).

My calculation:
45002 number of selected
1.95 derivatives coefficient
19710 quota of EU region per visas according to Brit last YouTube - EU - analysis
39500 approximate maximum number I have seen so far
0.5 - i'm not certain, this was a roughly taken from the CEAC data sets looking at 19 and 20 years for the early numbers. I.e. for 10 approved cases, 1 or 2 refuses and 8-9 no answers from applicant.

(19710 / ((( 45000 / 1.95 ) / 39000) * 0.5) * 1.95) =
.
.
.
34163 cases
Click to expand...

clueless here, so is it good or bad news ( highest case number being this low)
 
Last edited:
usimdo said:
What is the highest EU case number for 2021? I've seen 39k+ as highest.

Knowing highest case, we can figure out density of cases in each thousand.
And knowing approximate success rate ( arount 50% according to CEAC datasets ) we can count mathematical highest case for EU region ( same can be done for other regions, I'm just interested in EU, sorry ).

My calculation:
45002 number of selected
1.95 derivatives coefficient
19710 quota of EU region per visas according to Brit last YouTube - EU - analysis
39500 approximate maximum number I have seen so far
0.5 - i'm not certain, this was a roughly taken from the CEAC data sets looking at 19 and 20 years for the early numbers. I.e. for 10 approved cases, 1 or 2 refuses and 8-9 no answers from applicant.

(19710 / ((( 45000 / 1.95 ) / 39000) * 0.5) * 1.95) =
.
.
.
34163 cases
Click to expand...

THe response rates, denial rates, derivative growth rates (adds at least 10% numbers) are key to those sorts of calculations. I think your 50% number is optimistic (but no one knows because this year will be different to older years with new procedures and rules). But as I have said in my videos, so are the aspects such as COVID, the election and so on.
 
gmeteor said:
clueless here, so is it good or bad news ( highest case number being this low)
Click to expand...
it is bad actually, it means that there is fewer gaps between numbers. In normal year without Trump and Pandemic maximum cut off with this type of draw for EU would be 20k. Visa Quota would be fulfilled early for EU.
 
Masda said:
it is bad actually, it means that there is fewer gaps between numbers. In normal year without Trump and Pandemic maximum cut off with this type of draw for EU would be 20k. Visa Quota would be fulfilled early for EU.
Click to expand...

But just to be clear though, it isn't that low, it's actually quite high (> 55k as mentioned above).
 
Masda said:
it is bad actually, it means that there is fewer gaps between numbers. In normal year without Trump and Pandemic maximum cut off with this type of draw for EU would be 20k. Visa Quota would be fulfilled early for EU.
Click to expand...

Number if holes doesn't matter, and as pinted out, the OP has some incorrect assumptions.
 
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