Britsimon
Super Moderator
It doesn't matter what you answer for those questions. Yes would be the most accurate answer in your scenario.
DV 2020 All Selectees
- Thread starter Sm1smom
- Start date
It doesn't matter what you answer for those questions. Yes would be the most accurate answer in your scenario.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
You should investigate transferring to a US college because the qualification you receive will be more easily recognized in the USA. At the interview you can say you will look into that option to finish your education.
WBA
Active Member
About Banned countries, the first selection is random so since the countries banned from entering USA are well known they should exclude them from entering the lottery but we are not there yet. To be fair with them it is frustrating to get selected randomly which is not easy them be denied the visa at the interview, I would not like it if it happens to me.
I'm taking Iran as example but this is applicable for all 8 banned countries, since Iran is in Asia, I would assume there will be more chance to get a visa for other countries in Asia since Iran will not get any. right?
I'm taking Iran as example but this is applicable for all 8 banned countries, since Iran is in Asia, I would assume there will be more chance to get a visa for other countries in Asia since Iran will not get any. right?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Be aware that if you get a green card, you will lose it again if you just stay outside of the US for longer than a year withiut a re-entry permit. A re-entry permit gives you two years outside the US, but requires that be in the US to apply for it and do the biometrics (usually means you need to be in the US for about 4 weeks, maybe longer). The fee for this permit is $575 plus $85 for biometrics.
Agree with britsimon that best case is transferring to the US, so that your college degree is better recognized and it will be easier to find your first job after graduation. Depending what stage of your studies are, you can look at community colleges or instate public colleges for lowest cost.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Why would they ban them from entry based on eligibility from birth country, when the entrants can get a visa if they have a second passport? It’s up to the entrant to figure out eligibility, just like in any other case. We always get selectees who later discover they aren’t eligible, for various reasons.
WBA
Active Member
I think I didn't explain well, I'm just trying to understand.
Let's take the example of an Iranian with only one citizenship, their birth country is Iran, will they be denied at the interview?
Aidyn
Well-Known Member
And if the ban is lifted at any time during the DV year then there is no problem
WBA
Active Member
I would not like it if I get to the interview then be told you do not qualify based on this ban rule when it is know well before
Giovanna
Active Member
Good evening. I have a doubt.
I am in the process to complete the forms. On the I 485 I am probably missing 1 address history. At the time I was an aupair pair I had a rematch so I changed families and of course addresses. Now, i don t remember if I did put the "rematch address" in the Ds 260.
1) Is it safer to unlock the Ds 260 in order to check what i wrote in the history addresses or it is something no very important?
I am in the process to complete the forms. On the I 485 I am probably missing 1 address history. At the time I was an aupair pair I had a rematch so I changed families and of course addresses. Now, i don t remember if I did put the "rematch address" in the Ds 260.
1) Is it safer to unlock the Ds 260 in order to check what i wrote in the history addresses or it is something no very important?
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
That’s a bad example.
I believe most (if not all) Iranians and other selectees under the travel ban order are already aware of the ban being in place prior to going in for their interview, it’s not like they only find out after going for the interview.
In addition, preventing them from submitting an eDV entry form will be a disservice to those of them who are currently in the US on some other form of NIV and can successfully complete the AOS process, or those who can utilize the dual citizenship clause to overcome the ban.
WBA
Active Member
LOL, I think I was not clear.... I'm not looking for preventing them from entering the eDVDoesn’t change the pointyou can’t just ban people from entering when you don’t know if they have a legitimate avenue to claim a visa.
I'm just saying it is frustrating for them
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Really? So why did you say
And then answered britsimon with no “correction” when he said
Hard to backtrack when your post history is there. Anyway it’s a pointless argument because no-one is going to “exclude” those countries from entering. And they are all grown adults who can understand the basis of eligibility, so like every other DV entrant let them make the decision on their own factors.
My CN is AS23XXX and so far i haven't heard back from KCC, i submitted my DS-260 on July 14th..Anybody from Asia received Documents request from KCC after DS-260? Please share with your CN range and date of DS-260 submission. I am getting little impatient.
I am also interested to hear from someone within this CN range in asia region ..
I have two questions.
The first one is about the expected cutoff number for EU in DV2020. I know these type of questions are cumbersome and it would be better to just wait and see since we can't change our situation anyway. But for me, this guessing game is just part of the fun
Britsimon mentioned on his blog post that he considers all case numbers in Europe above 45k to be high and thus in danger of not getting invited to an interview. I am curious if this number shouldn't be lower. Let's assume 52k visas are available (50k + 2k from NACRA), 40% (similar to DV18 and DV19) or 20.8k of these will go to Europe. There are 14k cases and roughly 31k selectees in Europe. Let's assume the selectees are evenly spread out across case numbers and also that the case numbers are uniformly distributed which is not exactly true. Then we have 20.8k/31k = 70% of all selectees/case numbers in Europe will get a visa. We can make our calculations more precise by factoring selectees who won't respond. In DV 18/19 we saw a no response rate of around 20%. I assume that it will be lower this year since more there are more participants and also selectees from Eastern Europeans who are more eager to actually move forward. Let's assume 10% no response rate (worst case). The number of visas will be distributed among 31k - 3.1k = 27,9k. Thus, 20,8k/27,9k = 74% will receive a visa. If we take the first 74% the cutoff number for EU will around 41,5k. If we assume a no response rate of 15% => 31k-4,65k = 26.3k => 20.8k/26.3k => 80% will get a visa.
On top, I assume that there are more holes towards higher case numbers which makes the situation for higher case numbers even worse. Intentionally broken link: h ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lshia067qJy9QKKDqB7Fi9YLgnt2RJtwwPdP0Ebj4Po/edit#gid=0 This board shows Turkish case numbers, they are clearly not uniformly distributed. The sample size is 300 which is not too small. Because of the skewed distribution, I would subtract 2k more which results in a worst-case cutoff number of 39,5k. All I want to say is that 45k might be a bit too optimistic. Unfortunately, I am pretty much at this position
The second question is about DV 260 + F1 visa. Do you guys know of any cases in which a person could get an F1 visa after submitting an F1? I want to do a semester abroad in the US beginning in August next year. But I will probably already have submitted the DS 260 before I can apply for an F1.
The first one is about the expected cutoff number for EU in DV2020. I know these type of questions are cumbersome and it would be better to just wait and see since we can't change our situation anyway. But for me, this guessing game is just part of the fun
Britsimon mentioned on his blog post that he considers all case numbers in Europe above 45k to be high and thus in danger of not getting invited to an interview. I am curious if this number shouldn't be lower. Let's assume 52k visas are available (50k + 2k from NACRA), 40% (similar to DV18 and DV19) or 20.8k of these will go to Europe. There are 14k cases and roughly 31k selectees in Europe. Let's assume the selectees are evenly spread out across case numbers and also that the case numbers are uniformly distributed which is not exactly true. Then we have 20.8k/31k = 70% of all selectees/case numbers in Europe will get a visa. We can make our calculations more precise by factoring selectees who won't respond. In DV 18/19 we saw a no response rate of around 20%. I assume that it will be lower this year since more there are more participants and also selectees from Eastern Europeans who are more eager to actually move forward. Let's assume 10% no response rate (worst case). The number of visas will be distributed among 31k - 3.1k = 27,9k. Thus, 20,8k/27,9k = 74% will receive a visa. If we take the first 74% the cutoff number for EU will around 41,5k. If we assume a no response rate of 15% => 31k-4,65k = 26.3k => 20.8k/26.3k => 80% will get a visa.
On top, I assume that there are more holes towards higher case numbers which makes the situation for higher case numbers even worse. Intentionally broken link: h ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lshia067qJy9QKKDqB7Fi9YLgnt2RJtwwPdP0Ebj4Po/edit#gid=0 This board shows Turkish case numbers, they are clearly not uniformly distributed. The sample size is 300 which is not too small. Because of the skewed distribution, I would subtract 2k more which results in a worst-case cutoff number of 39,5k. All I want to say is that 45k might be a bit too optimistic. Unfortunately, I am pretty much at this position
The second question is about DV 260 + F1 visa. Do you guys know of any cases in which a person could get an F1 visa after submitting an F1? I want to do a semester abroad in the US beginning in August next year. But I will probably already have submitted the DS 260 before I can apply for an F1.
Aidyn
Well-Known Member
There is so much not right with this I am not sure where to begin... I suggest you go and read a lot more on Simons blog about the process.I have two questions.
The first one is about the expected cutoff number for EU in DV2020. I know these type of questions are cumbersome and it would be better to just wait and see since we can't change our situation anyway. But for me, this guessing game is just part of the fun
Britsimon mentioned on his blog post that he considers all case numbers in Europe above 45k to be high and thus in danger of not getting invited to an interview. I am curious if this number shouldn't be lower. Let's assume 52k visas are available (50k + 2k from NACRA), 40% (similar to DV18 and DV19) or 20.8k of these will go to Europe. There are 14k cases and roughly 31k selectees in Europe. Let's assume the selectees are evenly spread out across case numbers and also that the case numbers are uniformly distributed which is not exactly true. Then we have 20.8k/31k = 70% of all selectees/case numbers in Europe will get a visa. We can make our calculations more precise by factoring selectees who won't respond. In DV 18/19 we saw a no response rate of around 20%. I assume that it will be lower this year since more there are more participants and also selectees from Eastern Europeans who are more eager to actually move forward. Let's assume 10% no response rate (worst case). The number of visas will be distributed among 31k - 3.1k = 27,9k. Thus, 20,8k/27,9k = 74% will receive a visa. If we take the first 74% the cutoff number for EU will around 41,5k. If we assume a no response rate of 15% => 31k-4,65k = 26.3k => 20.8k/26.3k => 80% will get a visa.
On top, I assume that there are more holes towards higher case numbers which makes the situation for higher case numbers even worse. Intentionally broken link: h ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lshia067qJy9QKKDqB7Fi9YLgnt2RJtwwPdP0Ebj4Po/edit#gid=0 This board shows Turkish case numbers, they are clearly not uniformly distributed. The sample size is 300 which is not too small. Because of the skewed distribution, I would subtract 2k more which results in a worst-case cutoff number of 39,5k. All I want to say is that 45k might be a bit too optimistic. Unfortunately, I am pretty much at this position
The second question is about DV 260 + F1 visa. Do you guys know of any cases in which a person could get an F1 visa after submitting an F1? I want to do a semester abroad in the US beginning in August next year. But I will probably already have submitted the DS 260 before I can apply for an F1.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I have two questions.
The first one is about the expected cutoff number for EU in DV2020. I know these type of questions are cumbersome and it would be better to just wait and see since we can't change our situation anyway. But for me, this guessing game is just part of the fun
Britsimon mentioned on his blog post that he considers all case numbers in Europe above 45k to be high and thus in danger of not getting invited to an interview. I am curious if this number shouldn't be lower. Let's assume 52k visas are available (50k + 2k from NACRA), 40% (similar to DV18 and DV19) or 20.8k of these will go to Europe. There are 14k cases and roughly 31k selectees in Europe. Let's assume the selectees are evenly spread out across case numbers and also that the case numbers are uniformly distributed which is not exactly true. Then we have 20.8k/31k = 70% of all selectees/case numbers in Europe will get a visa. We can make our calculations more precise by factoring selectees who won't respond. In DV 18/19 we saw a no response rate of around 20%. I assume that it will be lower this year since more there are more participants and also selectees from Eastern Europeans who are more eager to actually move forward. Let's assume 10% no response rate (worst case). The number of visas will be distributed among 31k - 3.1k = 27,9k. Thus, 20,8k/27,9k = 74% will receive a visa. If we take the first 74% the cutoff number for EU will around 41,5k. If we assume a no response rate of 15% => 31k-4,65k = 26.3k => 20.8k/26.3k => 80% will get a visa.
On top, I assume that there are more holes towards higher case numbers which makes the situation for higher case numbers even worse. Intentionally broken link: h ttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lshia067qJy9QKKDqB7Fi9YLgnt2RJtwwPdP0Ebj4Po/edit#gid=0 This board shows Turkish case numbers, they are clearly not uniformly distributed. The sample size is 300 which is not too small. Because of the skewed distribution, I would subtract 2k more which results in a worst-case cutoff number of 39,5k. All I want to say is that 45k might be a bit too optimistic. Unfortunately, I am pretty much at this position
The second question is about DV 260 + F1 visa. Do you guys know of any cases in which a person could get an F1 visa after submitting an F1? I want to do a semester abroad in the US beginning in August next year. But I will probably already have submitted the DS 260 before I can apply for an F1.
So you are underestimating the no responses, ignoring refusals and endless AP, and with these flawed assumptions coming up with a low number to scare yourself. Feel free to do that if you wish, but you are wrong. In time you will see that.
As for your F1 idea, that will be pointless as you will have interviewed by then. But yes it is "possible" (but harder) to get a NIV approval after a DS260 submission.