DV 2018 OC Selectees

[EmilyW]

17xx is a risky number. In 2014-15, that number wouldn't have gotten to interview because they selected too many people for both those years. They seem to have selected another big group this year, so there is a risk that that number won't get to interview. But, maybe KCC know something we don't. I really hope so cos when they over-select, it just leads to disappointment for alot of people.

In terms of the DS260, we know it takes around two months for them to process the DS260, or thereabouts. That includes background checks etc. Then it basically sits there until your number gets current. You won't receive any further information until your number becomes current and your interview is scheduled.

 

[Britsimon]

Thanks Emily, but I've been through that website extensively, and it doesn't explain anything about Visa Bulletins or half the information you guys have come up with on these forums. That's how I ended up here in the first place. It also doesn't provide any information regarding timelines once the DS260 form has been submitted.

Could you please help with the questions above? I'm really having difficulty getting any responses for what I thought were quite simple questions...

Thanks again

I have answered your questions on another thread. Post once and wait for answers please.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Thanks Emily, but I've been through that website extensively, and it doesn't explain anything about Visa Bulletins or half the information you guys have come up with on these forums. That's how I ended up here in the first place. It also doesn't provide any information regarding timelines once the DS260 form has been submitted.

Could you please help with the questions above? I'm really having difficulty getting any responses for what I thought were quite simple questions...

Thanks again

The visa bulletin itself explains how it works....

Further up in each bulletin they note that "current, [means] numbers are authorized for issuance to all qualified applicants" and then in the DV specific section it says "For [month], immigrant numbers in the DV category are available to qualified DV-2017 applicants chargeable to all regions/eligible countries as follows. When an allocation cut-off number is shown, visas are available only for applicants with DV regional lottery rank numbers BELOW the specified allocation cut-off number:"

To me that looks pretty clear and well explained.

 

[JN1399]

Hey all! I have another quick question. I've been reading that KCC grants an interview where your present address is listed on your DS-260, regardless of where you actually say you want to interview. I presently live in the U.S. and have been out of my home country (NZ) since I was 16. However, I did want to interview in Auckland so I said I didn't want to do AOS processing and instead selected Auckland as the location of my interview. Do you think that this will be fine and they'll grant me the Auckland interview, even though my present address is listed in the U.S.? Thanks in advance!

 

[wax]

Hi everyone

1st time post.

not very well versed in all the rules, but trying to learn!

My girlfriend of 10 years and i have been casually applying for the last few years.

She is now my fiancé and has been selected number 2018OC000010XX.

We got engaged in november of 2016 and have planned to get married at the end of september 2017.

I have read the post at britsimonsays.com/marital-status-getting-married-dv-lottery-process/

So looks like the logical thing to do is wait till after we are married to fill out the ds260.

My question is. if we wait that long does that effect our chances of being selected to go further? Or should she just apply right away?

Many thanks!!

 

[MLGJ]

will give you an idea of the number of issued visas.
Be careful with the published selectees count – you can't see selectees from a "2nd draw".
Lastly, don't spend too much time looking at historic visa bulletins. They're fun, but little more. In DV-2016 they raised the cut-off for a while without having any case numbers to make current.

Hi Roger,
I saw your Regional Quotas table in another thread and that you estimate the quota for OC at around 1500. The final number of visa issuances for each year always seems to be half or less than half of this. Understandable in the years that went current (where it appears they have under-selected), but for 2014 and 2015 where they didn't go current is there a theory as to why more CNs didn't get through the process if they still had more to go to fill the quota?
Many Thanks
ML

 

[SusieQQQ]

Hi everyone

1st time post.

not very well versed in all the rules, but trying to learn!

My girlfriend of 10 years and i have been casually applying for the last few years.

She is now my fiancé and has been selected number 2018OC000010XX.

We got engaged in november of 2016 and have planned to get married at the end of september 2017.

I have read the post at britsimonsays.com/marital-status-getting-married-dv-lottery-process/

So looks like the logical thing to do is wait till after we are married to fill out the ds260.

My question is. if we wait that long does that effect our chances of being selected to go further? Or should she just apply right away?

Many thanks!!

She's already "selected", and with a fairly high number it probably won't delay your interview to submit then. Definitely easier all round if you wait till after marriage to submit.

 

[DV4ROGER]

@MLGJ

The number 1580 in the table

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/2016-ceac-data-published.329711/page-2#post-2449086

refers the a total of 100,000 issued visas for the world – you have to read it as a percentage. The table simply translates the law INA 203(c) into numbers.

The number of diversity visas in DV-2018 should be somewhere between 50,000 and 55,000, so OC can "expect" around 1.58*52,500 = 830 visas. To illustrate the possible accuracy of the predictions:
In DV-2014 OC garnered 761 of the 52,342 issued DV visas, a quota of 1.454%. The above table predicted the OC quota to be 1.458%.

Real world DV-20## programs do not painstakingly follow the 203(c) script. You have botched selections, possibly resulting in visa transfers between regions (described in the law), troubling high numbers of no-shows in Africa, keeping the AF quota notoriously down. You have massive fraud in Ukraine troubling the EU quota (mass deletion of allocated visa numbers late in the year), or hundreds (?) of Iranian AP cases awaiting clearance, which makes the year a bumpy ride for AS region. (@Britsimon, Have I forgotten something?)

OC is a "nice" region, easy to predict, and the year doesn't seem to be under selected, so I don't expect many visas to be transferred. Therefore, the predicted 830 visas for OC by the end of the fiscal year sound about right to me.

 

[Britsimon]

@MLGJ

The number 1580 in the table

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/2016-ceac-data-published.329711/page-2#post-2449086

refers the a total of 100,000 issued visas for the world – you have to read it as a percentage. The table simply translates the law INA 203(c) into numbers.

The number of diversity visas in DV-2018 should be somewhere between 50,000 and 55,000, so OC can "expect" around 1.58*52,500 = 830 visas. To illustrate the possible accuracy of the predictions:
In DV-2014 OC garnered 761 of the 52,342 issued DV visas, a quota of 1.454%. The above table predicted the OC quota to be 1.458%.

Real world DV-20## programs do not painstakingly follow the 203(c) script. You have botched selections, possibly resulting in visa transfers between regions (described in the law), troubling high numbers of no-shows in Africa, keeping the AF quota notoriously down. You have massive fraud in Ukraine troubling the EU quota (mass deletion of allocated visa numbers late in the year), or hundreds (?) of Iranian AP cases awaiting clearance, which makes the year a bumpy ride for AS region. (@Britsimon, Have I forgotten something?)

OC is a "nice" region, easy to predict, and the year doesn't seem to be under selected, so I don't expect many visas to be transferred. Therefore, the predicted 830 visas for OC by the end of the fiscal year sound about right to me.

Nope you haven't forgotten anything - but the 830 quota certainly causes a knot in the stomach. It's hard to imagine those 830 coming from more than about 550 cases. That is 550 cases who respond and are approved out of about 2200 selected cases. OC is a nice region, but it's going to be a tough year again (like DV2015)

 

[DV4ROGER]

Nope you haven't forgotten anything - but the 830 quota certainly causes a knot in the stomach. It's hard to imagine those 830 coming from more than about 550 cases. That is 550 cases who respond and are approved out of about 2200 selected cases. OC is a nice region, but it's going to be a tough year again (like DV2015)

Absolutely.

 

[Lucile_park]

Hi awf - I stretched my win out for years.

Selected May
Interview September the year after - 16 months
Activation trip on last day - 6 months after that
Permanent move - 12 months after that

Hi all, this year was my first application and I have been very lucky to have been selected for further processing. Congrats to everyone selected. Reading through the thread it seems I have a low-ish number (OC-7XX). I wanted to ask for any advice on how I could stretch out my timeline. Looking at historical data it seems as though my interview may come up about February/ March 2018. My understanding is then it is basically 6 months from there until I have to switch on my visa (so around July/August 2018). I then have a further 12 months until I need to return. This takes me to about August 2019. I am hoping to stretch things out so that I am arriving around May 2020 (at the end of the 12 months period). Any advice on how I could potentially do this? Would submitting my DS260 around April 2018 help...or do I risk missing out as visas may have been all exhausted by the time they process my application? Thanks in advance.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Hi all, this year was my first application and I have been very lucky to have been selected for further processing. Congrats to everyone selected. Reading through the thread it seems I have a low-ish number (OC-7XX). I wanted to ask for any advice on how I could stretch out my timeline. Looking at historical data it seems as though my interview may come up about February/ March 2018. My understanding is then it is basically 6 months from there until I have to switch on my visa (so around July/August 2018). I then have a further 12 months until I need to return. This takes me to about August 2019. I am hoping to stretch things out so that I am arriving around May 2020 (at the end of the 12 months period). Any advice on how I could potentially do this? Would submitting my DS260 around April 2018 help...or do I risk missing out as visas may have been all exhausted by the time they process my application? Thanks in advance.

You could apply for a re-entry permit when you activate your visa; this will require you to spend probably a few weeks in the US to get it sorted out,but then allows you to stay out up to 2 years. I can't personally see how you can make a permanent move on your dates any other way: latest possible interview month for you is sept 2018 which means you need to activate by latest march 2019, making may 2020 impossible as a return without a re-entry permit.

 

[MLGJ]

@MLGJ

The number 1580 in the table

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/2016-ceac-data-published.329711/page-2#post-2449086

refers the a total of 100,000 issued visas for the world – you have to read it as a percentage. The table simply translates the law INA 203(c) into numbers.

The number of diversity visas in DV-2018 should be somewhere between 50,000 and 55,000, so OC can "expect" around 1.58*52,500 = 830 visas. To illustrate the possible accuracy of the predictions:
In DV-2014 OC garnered 761 of the 52,342 issued DV visas, a quota of 1.454%. The above table predicted the OC quota to be 1.458%.

Real world DV-20## programs do not painstakingly follow the 203(c) script. You have botched selections, possibly resulting in visa transfers between regions (described in the law), troubling high numbers of no-shows in Africa, keeping the AF quota notoriously down. You have massive fraud in Ukraine troubling the EU quota (mass deletion of allocated visa numbers late in the year), or hundreds (?) of Iranian AP cases awaiting clearance, which makes the year a bumpy ride for AS region. (@Britsimon, Have I forgotten something?)

OC is a "nice" region, easy to predict, and the year doesn't seem to be under selected, so I don't expect many visas to be transferred. Therefore, the predicted 830 visas for OC by the end of the fiscal year sound about right to me.

Ahhhh. Sorry, my mistake. I read it as a whole number rather than a percentage. I see now you have 100,000 at the bottom of your table, which I obviously chose to ignore before :0)
So around 830 visas. So few - thanks for crushing my tiny glint of DV hopes and dreams (joke). And thank you for clearing up my misunderstanding. I will now put all this on the back burner and get on with life!

 

[wax]

She's already "selected", and with a fairly high number it probably won't delay your interview to submit then. Definitely easier all round if you wait till after marriage to submit.

what about the timeline. does it matter when you have your interview? Or are all the interviews done then collated then they go through the numbers lowest to highest to see who gets their visa?
is that right?

 

[Lucile_park]

You could apply for a re-entry permit when you activate your visa; this will require you to spend probably a few weeks in the US to get it sorted out,but then allows you to stay out up to 2 years. I can't personally see how you can make a permanent move on your dates any other way: latest possible interview month for you is sept 2018 which means you need to activate by latest march 2019, making may 2020 impossible as a return without a re-entry permit.

Thanks SusieQQQ for that advice. That looks like a good solution. Has anyone has experience/ success with submitting a re-entry permit?

 

[Maria Ortiz]

Hi Guys!
We´ve selected for this year DV lottery, but reading all post i see that all of you got OC. Ours is SAxx...is thats something bad?....Besides i´ve trying to e-sign but it says that my case number is not the same when i sign in?
Can somebody give me some info?...thanks!!!

 

[EmilyW]

This is an Oceania thread, with all selectees coming from the Oceanic (OC) region. Your SA refers to South America which is your region of selection.

 

[Maria Ortiz]

ooo thanks EmilyW!!!

 

[SusieQQQ]

what about the timeline. does it matter when you have your interview? Or are all the interviews done then collated then they go through the numbers lowest to highest to see who gets their visa?
is that right?

Interviews are scheduled in case number order. I suggest you visit britsimonsays.com as he details a lot there how to read the visa bulletin, when interviews get scheduled etc. and probably has answers to all the questions you didn't know you had too

 

[Britsimon]

what about the timeline. does it matter when you have your interview? Or are all the interviews done then collated then they go through the numbers lowest to highest to see who gets their visa?
is that right?

Interviews are scheduled in case number order. I suggest you visit britsimonsays.com as he details a lot there how to read the visa bulletin, when interviews get scheduled etc. and probably has answers to all the questions you didn't know you had too

http://britsimonsays.com/dv2018-basic-questions/