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DV 2018 OC Selectees

Thanks SusieQQQ. I was actually looking for just the selectees. That link has all entries received. And the link below it has selectees but derivatives are included. Doesn't seem to be a list of just the selectees for each year. Unless I'm reading it wrong...? The reason I'm asking is I'm interested to know how many OC CNs there have been each year. There's a lot of talk about this being a high year for CNs. Whats usual?
 
Thanks SusieQQQ. I was actually looking for just the selectees. That link has all entries received. And the link below it has selectees but derivatives are included. Doesn't seem to be a list of just the selectees for each year. Unless I'm reading it wrong...? The reason I'm asking is I'm interested to know how many OC CNs there have been each year. There's a lot of talk about this being a high year for CNs. Whats usual?

Oh, they don't bother with that breakdown (sorry I thought you meant the breakdown of the entries). Once selected the number of visas has to include the derivatives, and the lattter changes through the year...people get married and have kids, they get divorced, kids age out, someone doesn't want to accompany, etc. So there's no point in breaking down the selectees in terms of entrants vs derivatives that I can see... You can get an idea by applying the ratio of entrants/derivatives to the total selectees, it won't be exact but it'll be a decent approximation given that it is random selection. But in any case it won't really help with what you want it for because you'd also need to know how many holes were in the case numbers.
 
Thanks SusieQQQ. I was actually looking for just the selectees. That link has all entries received. And the link below it has selectees but derivatives are included. Doesn't seem to be a list of just the selectees for each year. Unless I'm reading it wrong...? The reason I'm asking is I'm interested to know how many OC CNs there have been each year. There's a lot of talk about this being a high year for CNs. Whats usual?

I have the data, but you don't need it to understand the problem. DV2015 had around 3500 OC selectees and a max selected number of just over 2300. 3500 is far to0 many for the regional quota and in that year the VB topped out at 1490.

This year the max selected number is over 24XX - so unless there are more disqualified entries than normal (which is possible because of the photo rule), that means we probably have over 3500 selectees again - too many. Unfortunately we can no longer get the CEAC data that gives us precise counts, but when they publish the per country selectees we will know how many holes (disqualified entries) there are - and get an idea if the over selection is reality. The published selected numbers are normally available by June.
 
The reason I'm asking is I'm interested to know how many OC CNs there have been each year. There's a lot of talk about this being a high year for CNs. Whats usual?

DV-2015: 3498 selectees/2111 cases
DV-2016: 1500 selectees/908 cases

That's approx. 1.65/1.66 selectees per case.

There is no official publication about the number of cases. Britsimon used to extract the CEAC database to count these.
When they publish (maybe in the June Visa Bulletin this month) the number of selectees, simply divide it by 1.65 to have an idea.
The case number 2018OC24## indicates that there are more than 2200 cases competing in DV-2018 OC region.
Case numbers up to OC1500 usually suffice to exhaust the quota (the number of visas allotted to the region by law; not published). To get higher OC needs help from other regions whose unused leftover visas could be reallocated to OC.
 
Hi Guys.
First time entrant and got selected! OC CN15XX - so bit unsure as to how likely I am to getting an interview. I'm not getting my hopes up.
I mainly wanted to ask about what happens if you get the GC - restrictions on travel, how long you have to spend in the USA etc? Could someone link me to a more appropriate thread if this isnt the place. Cheers
 
I have the data, but you don't need it to understand the problem. DV2015 had around 3500 OC selectees and a max selected number of just over 2300. 3500 is far to0 many for the regional quota and in that year the VB topped out at 1490.

This year the max selected number is over 24XX - so unless there are more disqualified entries than normal (which is possible because of the photo rule), that means we probably have over 3500 selectees again - too many. Unfortunately we can no longer get the CEAC data that gives us precise counts, but when they publish the per country selectees we will know how many holes (disqualified entries) there are - and get an idea if the over selection is reality. The published selected numbers are normally available by June.
You're too fast for me.
 
DV-2015: 3498 selectees/2111 cases
DV-2016: 1500 selectees/908 cases

That's approx. 1.65/1.66 selectees per case.

There is no official publication about the number of cases. Britsimon used to extract the CEAC database to count these.
When they publish (maybe in the June Visa Bulletin this month) the number of selectees, simply divide it by 1.65 to have an idea.
The case number 2018OC24## indicates that there are more than 2200 cases competing in DV-2018 OC region.
Case numbers up to OC1500 usually suffice to exhaust the quota (the number of visas allotted to the region by law; not published). To get higher OC needs help from other regions whose unused leftover visas could be reallocated to OC.

And we know that EU is around 40XXX, AS is at least 11XXX, SA is high and OC is high. So - I suspect AF is also high (although will have suffered badly with photo disqualifications). Therefore, I don't see where unused quota is coming from...
 
And we know that EU is around 40XXX, AS is at least 11XXX, SA is high and OC is high. So - I suspect AF is also high (although will have suffered badly with photo disqualifications). Therefore, I don't see where unused quota is coming from...
Quite.
 
Oh, they don't bother with that breakdown (sorry I thought you meant the breakdown of the entries). Once selected the number of visas has to include the derivatives, and the lattter changes through the year...people get married and have kids, they get divorced, kids age out, someone doesn't want to accompany, etc. So there's no point in breaking down the selectees in terms of entrants vs derivatives that I can see... You can get an idea by applying the ratio of entrants/derivatives to the total selectees, it won't be exact but it'll be a decent approximation given that it is random selection. But in any case it won't really help with what you want it for because you'd also need to know how many holes were in the case numbers.

Gotcha, thank you! I'm on a learning curve :0)
 
I have the data, but you don't need it to understand the problem. DV2015 had around 3500 OC selectees and a max selected number of just over 2300. 3500 is far to0 many for the regional quota and in that year the VB topped out at 1490.

This year the max selected number is over 24XX - so unless there are more disqualified entries than normal (which is possible because of the photo rule), that means we probably have over 3500 selectees again - too many. Unfortunately we can no longer get the CEAC data that gives us precise counts, but when they publish the per country selectees we will know how many holes (disqualified entries) there are - and get an idea if the over selection is reality. The published selected numbers are normally available by June.

Thanks Simon, very helpful info.
 
DV-2015: 3498 selectees/2111 cases
DV-2016: 1500 selectees/908 cases

That's approx. 1.65/1.66 selectees per case.

There is no official publication about the number of cases. Britsimon used to extract the CEAC database to count these.
When they publish (maybe in the June Visa Bulletin this month) the number of selectees, simply divide it by 1.65 to have an idea.
The case number 2018OC24## indicates that there are more than 2200 cases competing in DV-2018 OC region.
Case numbers up to OC1500 usually suffice to exhaust the quota (the number of visas allotted to the region by law; not published). To get higher OC needs help from other regions whose unused leftover visas could be reallocated to OC.

Thanks Roger, all very helpful info.
 
Hi all, congratulations to all OC selectees this year. Just joining onto this thread now :)

I'm the super high OC case number that everyone is using as the max. benchmark OC24**. Have been waiting 8 years for this and looks like I'll probably luck out again. Was so excited to see that letter come up and then saw the case number...

Congrats to everyone with the lower case numbers though! Excited to see your journeys begin.
 
OC16XX here! Thought I'd check-in on this thread. Being outside the "safe" number limit, I'll be looking forward to reading the analysis and forecasts by the experts over the coming months. Congrats to everyone!
 
Low OC1300's checking in. Never really thought I'd be selected and am now having to do a lot of research into exactly how everything works!

From reading up on things, it seems like I'm likely to get an interview - is that right, or is it too early to know yet?

Also, am I correct in thinking that if I'm interviewed in (say) July 2018, I could travel to the US 6 months later (say January 2019), stay for a couple of weeks and activate my permanent residency and then go back to Australia for up to 12 months (returning to the US in at the end of 2019) without too much trouble?

Like I said, for some reason I never really expected to be selected, so now would like as much time as possible to get everything in order before I move. :)
 
Low OC1300's checking in. Never really thought I'd be selected and am now having to do a lot of research into exactly how everything works!

From reading up on things, it seems like I'm likely to get an interview - is that right, or is it too early to know yet?

Also, am I correct in thinking that if I'm interviewed in (say) July 2018, I could travel to the US 6 months later (say January 2019), stay for a couple of weeks and activate my permanent residency and then go back to Australia for up to 12 months (returning to the US in at the end of 2019) without too much trouble?

Like I said, for some reason I never really expected to be selected, so now would like as much time as possible to get everything in order before I move. :)

Yes that plan would be about right.
 
Hello everyone, is it safe to assume if I was successful in the lottery that my photos were fine? I remember there being a slight shadow in the background of mine but it was maybe slightly more prominent than some acceptable photo examples I saw online. My application was a spur of the moment decision so I didn't have enough time to get it professionally done
 
Hello everyone, is it safe to assume if I was successful in the lottery that my photos were fine? I remember there being a slight shadow in the background of mine but it was maybe slightly more prominent than some acceptable photo examples I saw online. My application was a spur of the moment decision so I didn't have enough time to get it professionally done

Yes, safe.
 
Hi Guys.
First time entrant and got selected! OC CN15XX - so bit unsure as to how likely I am to getting an interview. I'm not getting my hopes up.
I mainly wanted to ask about what happens if you get the GC - restrictions on travel, how long you have to spend in the USA etc? Could someone link me to a more appropriate thread if this isnt the place. Cheers

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/af...bilities-green-card-holder-permanent-resident

No restrictions on travel other than you must live in the US in order to maintain residency / have it count towards citizenship. If you do end up spending alot of time outside of the US, you could up in front of an immigration judge and have to plead your case as to why should be let back in.
 
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