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DV 2018 OC Selectees

Britsimon said:
Around 1.6 or a little higher.

OC is pretty easy to understand.

We know the max case is around 2600 (based on feedback).
We know the disqualification rate for OC is about 7% or a little less (based on recent years).
Assume the derivative rate is 1.6. (based on recent years).

So - 2600 case numbers, of which 7% get disqualified would give 2418 cases.

2418 x 1.6 = 3868 which works out pretty darn spot on to the 3863 they announced.
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And for those that like numbers - again, this is all quite easy in OC.

Using DV2015 OC response rate and the issued rate can show roughly how many visas they would need to serve the the 3863 people selected.

Response rate from DV2015 - 46%
Issued rate from DV2015 - 72.75%

So - that means 46% of the 2418 cases (calculated above) will respond - 1112 cases.
72.75% of the 1112 would be approved based on DV2015 approval rate - 834 cases.

The derivative rate grows a little during the year (babies, and marriage) - so the 834 cases would need at least 1400 visas for everyone to be happy.

The quota is around 800.
 
So what you're telling me is that there is hope for my CN2200 given that there is some weird skewness/kurtosis effect of disqualifications, non-responders and single people concentrated at CN0-2000?

Any low CN OC'ers want to get married any time soon? o_O
 
Relax, I'm kidding. Although, what if we hit it off on a whirlwind romance and end up living in New Jersey with 2 kids and 2 cats. What a story
 
scepticpsych said:
Relax, I'm kidding. Although, what if we hit it off on a whirlwind romance and end up living in New Jersey with 2 kids and 2 cats. What a story
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I'm sorry I cannot relax with such a suggestion - we've had situations of people posting in the past and asking to know if there's any selectee interested in getting married.

There's a recent case of a DV2018 hopeful who ended up not selected and came back to ask (in the family immigration forum) if anyone was open to sponsoring and filing a petition on his behalf which he was willing to pay for.

We do not want some gullible or unscrupulous person to read your post and decide that's a good way to go, so it was important for me to note that is not condoned in this forum.
 
Britsimon said:
And for those that like numbers - again, this is all quite easy in OC.

Using DV2015 OC response rate and the issued rate can show roughly how many visas they would need to serve the the 3863 people selected.

Response rate from DV2015 - 46%
Issued rate from DV2015 - 72.75%

So - that means 46% of the 2418 cases (calculated above) will respond - 1112 cases.
72.75% of the 1112 would be approved based on DV2015 approval rate - 834 cases.

The derivative rate grows a little during the year (babies, and marriage) - so the 834 cases would need at least 1400 visas for everyone to be happy.

The quota is around 800.
Click to expand...

Oh - and just for the final piece of illustration.

Since the 1400 would be the amount of visas approved over the entire case number range, we can divide the 1400 by 26 to find out how many visas are approved per 100 case numbers. That comes out at 53.8.

So - 53.8 approvals per 100 cases.

Now divide the quota of 800 by 53.8 (x 100) and you would find an estimated cutoff. 1487 is that number. Spookily close to the cutoffs in previous years - because we have used numbers from previous years to get this number. It just proves out the logic and tells us that if responses and approval rate is similar to previous years, the cutoff will be similar too.
 
Britsimon said:
Oh - and just for the final piece of illustration.

Since the 1400 would be the amount of visas approved over the entire case number range, we can divide the 1400 by 26 to find out how many visas are approved per 100 case numbers. That comes out at 53.8.

So - 53.8 approvals per 100 cases.

Now divide the quota of 800 by 53.8 (x 100) and you would find an estimated cutoff. 1487 is that number. Spookily close to the cutoffs in previous years - because we have used numbers from previous years to get this number. It just proves out the logic and tells us that if responses and approval rate is similar to previous years, the cutoff will be similar too.
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Where does the number 26 come from? The quota of 800 you're referring to refers to cases, not visas am I correct? The 800 cases can have any number of derivatives then (unless they reach the upper limit of 3500). Does this mean that the number of derivatives is not really a relevant factor then?

Nevertheless, I think Britsimon's last 3 posts are pretty definitive then for those with higher CNs (say 1800-2600) and if previous years are a reliable indicator. I'm assuming that for previous years that went current the max CN was ~1400
 
scepticpsych said:
Where does the number 26 come from? The quota of 800 you're referring to refers to cases, not visas am I correct? The 800 cases can have any number of derivatives then (unless they reach the upper limit of 3500). Does this mean that the number of derivatives is not really a relevant factor then?

Nevertheless, I think Britsimon's last 3 posts are pretty definitive then for those with higher CNs (say 1800-2600) and if previous years are a reliable indicator. I'm assuming that for previous years that went current the max CN was ~1400
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The 26 is how many 100's we have up to the max case number of 26XX

The 800 includes derivatives.

DV2014 and DV2015 cutoff at 1450 and 1490.
 
Britsimon said:
Around 1.6 or a little higher.

OC is pretty easy to understand.

We know the max case is around 2600 (based on feedback).
We know the disqualification rate for OC is about 7% or a little less (based on recent years).
Assume the derivative rate is 1.6. (based on recent years).

So - 2600 case numbers, of which 7% get disqualified would give 2418 cases.

2418 x 1.6 = 3868 which works out pretty darn spot on to the 3863 they announced.
Click to expand...
you have mentioned that the disqualification rate for OC may differ due to the updated photo requirement in this years DV. When do you think we will start to get a sense of whether this will impact the disqualification rate?
 
C&R said:
you have mentioned that the disqualification rate for OC may differ due to the updated photo requirement in this years DV. When do you think we will start to get a sense of whether this will impact the disqualification rate?
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Well, we don't know how they will handle such cases, but we certainly won't hear anything until after October, and we might not hear anything until much later than that. Not everyone would have made that mistake, not everyone will report their experience and so on. So - don't expect to hear for some time. We might have some feedback faster from other (larger) regions, but again, it is hard to say when.
 
Hi!
DV2018 Selectee. CN9XX
Filled in my DS260, as has my husband. That was fun (/sarc) - google streetview used to find addresses of places I used to live overseas. I feel fortunate to have a brother that already lives in the US permanently making a future move a bit easier.
One question - I go by both my maiden and married name, is this likely to cause any problems, or all ok with a marriage certificate? I changed back to my maiden name a year ago because I felt like it. My passport is still in my married name. Bank accounts and other things are a mixture as to which name. Anyone every had experience with this?
Will be back with questions on moving an aging dog to the US if we get a GC too! I don't think we could go without her.
Thanks!
 
LucyMelb said:
Hi!
DV2018 Selectee. CN9XX
Filled in my DS260, as has my husband. That was fun (/sarc) - google streetview used to find addresses of places I used to live overseas. I feel fortunate to have a brother that already lives in the US permanently making a future move a bit easier.
One question - I go by both my maiden and married name, is this likely to cause any problems, or all ok with a marriage certificate? I changed back to my maiden name a year ago because I felt like it. My passport is still in my married name. Bank accounts and other things are a mixture as to which name. Anyone every had experience with this?
Will be back with questions on moving an aging dog to the US if we get a GC too! I don't think we could go without her.
Thanks!
Click to expand...

Moving the dog will be the easiest part! The US has no quarantine. As long as she's up to date on her shots it'll be fine.
 
LucyMelb said:
Hi!
DV2018 Selectee. CN9XX
Filled in my DS260, as has my husband. That was fun (/sarc) - google streetview used to find addresses of places I used to live overseas. I feel fortunate to have a brother that already lives in the US permanently making a future move a bit easier.
One question - I go by both my maiden and married name, is this likely to cause any problems, or all ok with a marriage certificate? I changed back to my maiden name a year ago because I felt like it. My passport is still in my married name. Bank accounts and other things are a mixture as to which name. Anyone every had experience with this?
Will be back with questions on moving an aging dog to the US if we get a GC too! I don't think we could go without her.
Thanks!
Click to expand...

I had a mix of things in maiden and married name. But I'd changed my name legally at Births, Deaths and Marriage so the changes are recorded formally and sit on my birth certificate. Did you change it legally?

Pets are easy to bring across. We had friends who brought theirs over for around $1200 through a pet service, but I've heard if you DIY it, it's much cheaper. The only question is to whether to bring an elderly dog. That is, can the dog withstand the trip?
 
EmilyW said:
I had a mix of things in maiden and married name. But I'd changed my name legally at Births, Deaths and Marriage so the changes are recorded formally and sit on my birth certificate. Did you change it legally?

Pets are easy to bring across. We had friends who brought theirs over for around $1200 through a pet service, but I've heard if you DIY it, it's much cheaper. The only question is to whether to bring an elderly dog. That is, can the dog withstand the trip?
Click to expand...

My understanding is in Australia you don't have to register a name change when you get married, effectively the registered marriage gives you the right to use your married name legally (as per the relevant states' births, deaths and marriages webpages), and also you change back if you want to without any paperwork. (For normal people that would be after separation or divorce, for me it was because I felt like it on a whim). I'm guessing it will be fine for getting the visa (all my travel, education and medical stuff is in one name), but more likely a problem for getting a licence and work. I'm guessing it will just be easier to change everything back (again) to my married name after getting a visa, right before moving?

Really hoping that the vet says our dog is ok to fly, she has some early stage kidney problems but is only 7.5 years old and super healthy otherwise.

Thanks for the advice.
 
LucyMelb said:
My understanding is in Australia you don't have to register a name change when you get married, effectively the registered marriage gives you the right to use your married name legally (as per the relevant states' births, deaths and marriages webpages), and also you change back if you want to without any paperwork. (For normal people that would be after separation or divorce, for me it was because I felt like it on a whim). I'm guessing it will be fine for getting the visa (all my travel, education and medical stuff is in one name), but more likely a problem for getting a licence and work. I'm guessing it will just be easier to change everything back (again) to my married name after getting a visa, right before moving?

Really hoping that the vet says our dog is ok to fly, she has some early stage kidney problems but is only 7.5 years old and super healthy otherwise.

Thanks for the advice.
Click to expand...

The name on your visa, and subsequently on your geeen card, will be the name your passport is issued in. Hopefully that's the one you plan to use.... so you really should have all the paperwork sorted out before your interview, not just before you move (well, you can do it later by paying $450 for a new green card in a different name if you have to, but that will be many months of waiting for the reissue.) Australia may not require paperwork for the name change, but the US does.
 
Thanks Susie ad Emily for the advice. Sounds like I'd really better get everything into one name. I think I'll go with my maiden name. So that raises another question, do you think that will cause any problems for my husband getting his visa too? We are of course legally married, and I actually changed my name back because of how strong our marriage is. I think I took his name when I was young in part for tradition, but also a little bit to tie him to me (yes, weird). But it does worry me a little that it might look strange to Immigration.
 
LucyMelb said:
Thanks Susie ad Emily for the advice. Sounds like I'd really better get everything into one name. I think I'll go with my maiden name. So that raises another question, do you think that will cause any problems for my husband getting his visa too? We are of course legally married, and I actually changed my name back because of how strong our marriage is. I think I took his name when I was young in part for tradition, but also a little bit to tie him to me (yes, weird). But it does worry me a little that it might look strange to Immigration.
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Plenty of women keep their maiden names here where I live now in California, especially if they have professional qualifications in it. It's hardly unusual in the 21st century...don't sweat it. (I'm assuming you've been married a while anyway?)
 
SusieQQQ said:
Plenty of women keep their maiden names here where I live now in California, especially if they have professional qualifications in it. It's hardly unusual in the 21st century...don't sweat it. (I'm assuming you've been married a while anyway?)
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Thanks. Yes, happily married for 11 years, changed back to my maiden name the week of our tenth anniversary. (My qualifications are in my married name, but I'm sure that will be fine). I'll apply for a new passport in my maiden name, shame, I had an excellent photo on this passport. Thank you so much for the advice.
 
You don't have to legally change the name. But it helps in situations like this because the birth certificate then has all known legal names on it. I've changed my name twice and have always done it via Births, Deaths and Marriages just to keep a legal record of the date of the change.

As Susie said, make sure your passport is in your maiden name if that's the name you want on your Green Card.
 
Hi all

Another lucky DV-2018 selectee here, OC CN8xx (after 7 years of trying)

Firstly so glad I stumbled upon these forums, it has helped make a lot of things clearer!

Just had a quick question, did read in DV-2017 forum about a family that was denied at the interview due to "country of chargeability". I just wanted to check something as I never saw this on the DS-260. The reason I'm asking as my wife is the main applicant, born in Argentina but also holds Australian citizenship. On the form we put that she will travel on the Australian passport (as that is what was asked in the first question) and then we listed the Argentinian passport details as requested. We were assigned an OC number as we live in Australia (both are citizens). Should we have been assigned a SA CN and therefore the interview will be done in South America, not Sydney? We were not sure if the country of chargeability affects this. Have a feeling we may have stuffed this up! Every other year I have been the main applicant (born in Oz) but this year we changed it up and wife got lucky.....

Thanks!
 
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