DV 2016 Oceania winners - Retired Thread
- Thread starter MattWatt
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
I don't know if I should stay up til 2AM to check it or just wait until the morning...
The servers will be frustratingly busy for the first few hours... I recommend getting a good night sleep.
Maisy
Member
I got up this morning, thinking its 5th of May, off course it EDT USA, we'll have to wait until tomorrow morning 4am.
violetion
Active Member
True that, I thought that could be the case! Probably more sensible of me to wait til morning.
It's funny in other years I applied to the lottery and then totally forgot about it until my calendar reminded me to check it, but this year I'm just hanging out for it more for some reason.
writeem
New Member
violetion
Active Member
Good luck to everyone..
From what I gather a number < 1600 is in with a good chance?
It's probably gonna depend on how many selectees there are this year. The cut off for DV2014 was <1450, we'll have to wait and see what it ends up being for DV2015. Hopefully it ends up being a little higher since there weren't as many selectees for that year as there were in the year prior.
connectedspace
Active Member
Well, I used to predict a cutoff of 1580, but I've since revised it way, way down.
The CEAC data show there are simply many more OC people responding to the DV opportunity this year. The rate of issued visas per CN is markedly higher than last year. Current prediction for 2015 -- both mine and Simon's -- is somewhere between 1400 and 1450.
In short, KCC selected roughly double the number of people this year than they needed to fill the quota. It's bureaucratically shrug-worthy, but it leaves half of the OC selection pool with dashed dreams. (Worse, people whose CNs were okay last year might not even make the cut!) Sadly, there's no reason to suppose they won't do it again.
And considering our visa quota in FY2015 is actually around 70 higher than last year, we're faced with an interesting problem: any revision of the quota back downwards will have a drastic downwards pressure on the final 2016 cutoff. So if response rates continue to rise, it's conceivable that the 2016 cutoff might be around 1200-1300, or even lower.
So, since I've moved on from 2015 and thrown my lot in with the 2016 crowd, I'll be praying for a CN < 1000.
In short, unless your CN is low, you haven't really won anything. Best to keep that in mind before excitement sets in!
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
You're killing me man
connectedspace
Active Member
Sorry, fella. If it makes you feel any better, here's Simon's latest CEAC extract: http://britsimonsays.com/ceac-data-extract-may-1/ Maybe I made a mistake...
If you would have made it last year, my guess is you'll probably be OK?
It's putting it mildly to say it wasn't fun times for me reading that data. Realisation finally dawned sometime last week. And it hosed down with rain that day too... just to top things off!
violetion
Active Member
Very interesting, thank you! A few years ago many OC contestants may not have thought the US was a more desirable place to live, but that seems to be changing by what you've said. If the chance of an OC contestant being selected is 1 in 20, I wonder how much greater the odds are of your application actually being approved to green card status... The CN is a horrible lottery within a lottery!
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
Probably - if they fall within your range it all comes down to the increments they use. They always round to 5s or 10s right?
connectedspace
Active Member
Very interesting, thank you! A few years ago many OC contestants may not have thought the US was a more desirable place to live, but that seems to be changing by what you've said. If the chance of an OC contestant being selected is 1 in 20, I wonder how much greater the odds are of your application actually being approved to green card status... The CN is a horrible lottery within a lottery!
You're telling me! Fact is my number would go current if we had the same response rate as DV2013, or even 2014. C'est la vie.
The best thing to do is reconcile DV into a single lottery: getting selected with a low case number. If you get the 'not selected' screen or if your CN is high, then you've missed out. What counts as 'high' will vary, unfortunately.
If you think of it as two lotteries -- first, getting selected, second, getting current -- then you're in for an extremely unpleasant year. (Take it from me.)
connectedspace
Active Member
That's been true in the past, so I'd say it's a safe bet!
connectedspace
Active Member
I have offered the Great Cthulhu a fluffy white lamb for every CN I am below 1100.
MattWatt
Active Member
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