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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

Don't think kcc can fill up their quota this way, Nepalese cases must be impacted at least 40% either they make big vb jumps for Asia or not enough Asian visas issued.
 
Well, if I remember correctly you were seeking an early limit on Nepal CN's and you got it for July (albeit it will most likely increase next month). One thing you can be pretty sure of is that KCC will comply with their legal requirements in terms of issuing DV visa, if at all feasible. As such they will continue to balance Iran and Nepal objectives with ROA for the remainder of the year.
 
EURO2014 said:
Well, if I remember correctly you were seeking an early limit on Nepal CN's and you got it for July (albeit it will most likely increase next month). One thing you can be pretty sure of is that KCC will comply with their legal requirements in terms of issuing DV visa, if at all feasible. As such they will continue to balance Iran and Nepal objectives with ROA for the remainder of the year.
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Please sir, do you still think it is possible to see a final cutoff of 11,000 or more, if that's what it takes to fill the AS quota?
Thank you!
 
NaraLB said:
Please sir, do you still think it is possible to see a final cutoff of 11,000 or more, if that's what it takes to fill the AS quota?
Thank you!
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I guess that Asia will go above 11k. But we will get a more clear picture after the 2nl data is released.

Lets stay positive my friend...
 
NaraLB said:
Please sir, do you still think it is possible to see a final cutoff of 11,000 or more, if that's what it takes to fill the AS quota?
Thank you!
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You are welcome. As you will have noticed from my screen name, I am not a specialist for DV AS region and therefore would not intend to give you a reliable forecast for the two outstanding VB's. It is clear, though, that last year Asia had o n e big increase of +3,800, which happened in August, when Nepal's (and possibly Iran's?) progress started to be limited. The problem, from an outside pov, seems to be that AS YTD is currently -23% behind LY and therefore starts into the last two remaining months from a very low base. A comparable increase of +4,000 or so would therefore not be of much help to you. Therefore the critical question, from my pov, will be: how much can ROA really step up, if both Nepal's & Iran's numbers will increase in August, leaving just one more month for DV-2015? I am very sorry I can't provide you with more happy news.

Source: https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1
 
EURO2014 said:
You are welcome. As you will have noticed from my screen name, I am not a specialist for DV AS region and therefore would not intend to give you a reliable forecast for the two outstanding VB's. It is clear, though, that last year Asia had o n e big increase of +3,800, which happened in August, when Nepal's (and possibly Iran's?) progress started to be limited. The problem, from an outside pov, seems to be that AS YTD is currently -23% behind LY and therefore starts into the last two remaining months from a very low base. A comparable increase of +4,000 or so would therefore not be of much help to you. Therefore the critical question, from my pov, will be: how much can ROA really step up, if both Nepal's & Iran's numbers will increase in August, leaving just one more month for DV-2015? I am very sorry I can't provide you with more happy news.

Source: https://docs.zoho.com/sheet/riphone.do?rid=xmy6ue226758a2abd4068b3b9de3c988cbea1
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Thank you sir! I appreciate your sympathy and understanding!
Actually my CN is in the high 9,000's (almost 10,000). But I was trying to confirm a theory that I read and came to believe, which is that KCC must do all it must take to fill the AS quota. As of the last CEAC update on May 1st, Asia has 3500 visas issued, less than half its quota (Approx. 8000 without AoS), but with 2 VBs left we need to see faster progress than the 500 visas/month that we've been seeing since the beginning of the FY (and that if all 800 pending AP were cleared as well). So, I was wondering if KCC is willing to make huge jumps IF needed to fill the quota. The logical answer would be: yes, but honestly with KCC we can never be sure. We can only wait.
 
NaraLB said:
Thank you sir! I appreciate your sympathy and understanding!
Actually my CN is in the high 9,000's (almost 10,000). But I was trying to confirm a theory that I read and came to believe, which is that KCC must do all it must take to fill the AS quota. As of the last CEAC update on May 1st, Asia has 3500 visas issued, less than half its quota (Approx. 8000 without AoS), but with 2 VBs left we need to see faster progress than the 500 visas/month that we've been seeing since the beginning of the FY (and that if all 800 pending AP were cleared as well). So, I was wondering if KCC is willing to make huge jumps IF needed to fill the quota. The logical answer would be: yes, but honestly with KCC we can never be sure. We can only wait.
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How will they process so many cases in August and September at Embassies - they have a limited capacity? The jumps cannot be that huge ... I hope they are as I am high CN, but I simply cannot see how they will deal with huge jumps
 
Yeah I read what the guy wrote on Facebook. He basically means, that in order to fulfill the AS quota, KCC needs to make some jumps even if Nepal wasn't stopped by August. Otherwise the region will be under-filled. Adela's question is valid though, but I think regarding Asia, the main bulk is in Iranian and Nepalese winners. Embassies in other countries should be able to deal with a large jump.
 
adela15 said:
How will they process so many cases in August and September at Embassies - they have a limited capacity? The jumps cannot be that huge ... I hope they are as I am high CN, but I simply cannot see how they will deal with huge jumps
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Well it's their problem TBH, we can't have underfilled quota while there is an overload of selectees.
 
wendell said:
Well it's their problem TBH, we can't have underfilled quota while there is an overload of selectees.
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u think they need to fill in 50k? maybe they have a plan for that that is not obvious to us...they already issued 22K end of april..I think the backlog is huge and they do not need to advance that much
 
adela15 said:
u think they need to fill in 50k? maybe they have a plan for that that is not obvious to us...they already issued 22K end of april..I think the backlog is huge and they do not need to advance that much
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Yes, i do think they have to give out 50k visas. I read many times how years like 2012 were considered failure because they could only issue 38k. Also KCC will take a lot of heat if they couldn't fill the quotas after selecting 125k winner, and messing with peoples lives for a year, just because they were going turtle-slow the entire year, or unwilling to limit a country or another. Regarding, the backlog, we Simon assures us that it will be resolved by next month. also Asia didn't have much of a backlog to begin with.
 
wendell said:
Yes, i do think they have to give out 50k visas. I read many times how years like 2012 were considered failure because they could only issue 38k. Also KCC will take a lot of heat if they couldn't fill the quotas after selecting 125k winner, and messing with peoples lives for a year, just because they were going turtle-slow the entire year, or unwilling to limit a country or another. Regarding, the backlog, we Simon assures us that it will be resolved by next month. also Asia didn't have much of a backlog to begin with.
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Indeed, they absolutely do their best to reach 50k and indeed often go over it - the 'true' DV limit is actually 55k so they can. This is the whole reason they selected so many people in DVs 2014 and 2015 to begin with.
The one thing to be careful of is assuming they will go hell for leather for each regional quota. Remember the quotas here are estimates - good ones, but estimates - and if they underfill one region they can make the 50k up with another.
 
wendell said:
Yes, i do think they have to give out 50k visas. I read many times how years like 2012 were considered failure because they could only issue 38k. Also KCC will take a lot of heat if they couldn't fill the quotas after selecting 125k winner, and messing with peoples lives for a year, just because they were going turtle-slow the entire year, or unwilling to limit a country or another. Regarding, the backlog, we Simon assures us that it will be resolved by next month. also Asia didn't have much of a backlog to begin with.
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I m EU number..very low increase this month... I lost hope ... I do not think they care if they issue 50K or less..even if they should care .. they do work yes, but if it is less than 50K, then people with high CN will lose ... there are left visas and they are not given...
 
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