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DV 2015 Winners Meet Here

Hi experts,
I have landed already in CA and finished all the immigration procedures but they told me to contact USCIS regarding how to get my SSN. Cause i need to open bank account, buy a car, rent house, buy Mobil card, and all of that need SSN....Will they send it to my address or i have to visit the nearest USCIS office to apply by myself face to face or what??? I know that the GC would be sent within one month to my address...right???
 
Sam16XXX said:
Hi experts,
I have landed already in CA and finished all the immigration procedures but they told me to contact USCIS regarding how to get my SSN. Cause i need to open bank account, buy a car, rent house, buy Mobil card, and all of that need SSN....Will they send it to my address or i have to visit the nearest USCIS office to apply by myself face to face or what??? I know that the GC would be sent within one month to my address...right???
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My question for the people who landed already, Have they received SSN & GC to the address you mentioned in the interview? Or you need to apply here in US ? After how many days from landing have you received SSN & GC ? I have already paid 165$ before I travel.
 
Hi @Sam16XXX . You better go to the nearest SSA office where you will be able to get the SSN. No need for the physical card (which will come after 7-10 days by mail) to complete all things you mentioned.
 
Hello guys.. My interview has been scheduled for late May, but I got married a month ago and I have informed embassy and the whole process went good. DS-260 unlocked, spouse added and now just waiting for the interview. However I am seeing in the CEAC data that every few days "Status Updated Date" is being changed. Is that normal and what do you think do they have enough time to process my dear wife before the interview?
 
Sale2322 said:
Hello guys.. My interview has been scheduled for late May, but I got married a month ago and I have informed embassy and the whole process went good. DS-260 unlocked, spouse added and now just waiting for the interview. However I am seeing in the CEAC data that every few days "Status Updated Date" is being changed. Is that normal and what do you think do they have enough time to process my dear wife before the interview?
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If you only updated your case within a month or so, you may not see any change on the ceac, my child got updated the day of the interview.
However since you informed the embassy, you will be fine, renember to take all the supporting documents.
Wish you all the succes
 
Ooh, my new concern. In the i-94 online form in the Travel History section there is no record of my Departure Date, only Arrival. My trip to the USA was last year and i-94 should be paperless and automated. Is that a problem, my interview for the GC is in about 10 days from now?
 
Hello @Britsimon,

If I may, I would like to hear your opinion regarding my following estimations.

According to CEAC data, there are 16,885 persons, including family members who have status other than Refused and NVC. This potentially means that they will receive visas for EU region.
Estimating that there are 20,000 visas for EU, this might mean that there are around 3,000 visas still available.
3,000 visas is about 8,000 case numbers (according to ceac data in the range of 26,000 and 34,000 there are around 3,000 family members).

So, taking that response rate stays the same and there are really 20,000 visas for EU, this might mean that the final cut-off will be in the range of 42,xxx (34,125 + 8,000)

The question is whether the response rate stays the same, whether it is 20,000 - 21,000 visas available and how many late AP or no-shows at the embassy are there.

Quite many questions, but I would like to hear your opinion regarding these issues based on your experience and calculations.
 
brunash82 said:
I really hope that you have a right, this is so stressfull for me and my wife because we have a high CN number 418xx...
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My main concern is the activity of winners with low CN. This can have big impact on cut-offs. As for CEAC data for may, we have good chances so far.
 
n.n. said:
Hello @Britsimon,

If I may, I would like to hear your opinion regarding my following estimations.

According to CEAC data, there are 16,885 persons, including family members who have status other than Refused and NVC. This potentially means that they will receive visas for EU region.
Estimating that there are 20,000 visas for EU, this might mean that there are around 3,000 visas still available.
3,000 visas is about 8,000 case numbers (according to ceac data in the range of 26,000 and 34,000 there are around 3,000 family members).

So, taking that response rate stays the same and there are really 20,000 visas for EU, this might mean that the final cut-off will be in the range of 42,xxx (34,125 + 8,000)

The question is whether the response rate stays the same, whether it is 20,000 - 21,000 visas available and how many late AP or no-shows at the embassy are there.

Quite many questions, but I would like to hear your opinion regarding these issues based on your experience and calculations.
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I think that is in the ballpark. We will see the next VB in a few days - let's see how that goes - I think an EU stop in August is very likely - so that would mean this VB and 1 more.
 
Britsimon said:
I think that is in the ballpark. We will see the next VB in a few days - let's see how that goes - I think an EU stop in August is very likely - so that would mean this VB and 1 more.
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What makes you think that there will be no movement for EU in September?
Is it because that's what happened last year, or that EU is too far ahead of other regions?
All regions are behind last year numbers of visas issued around this time. Also, although we don't know what the quota for EU is we all agree it should be more than DV 2014.
I realize that there might be a reason for EU to not have many interviews in September but I can't imagine why they would want to do it year after year. Statistically they should be busier in June (tourist visa requirement in many countries) than in September.
From my logic above, you probably have an idea what CN I have.
 
Knot said:
I realize that there might be a reason for EU to not have many interviews in September but I can't imagine why they would want to do it year after year. Statistically they should be busier in June (tourist visa requirement in many countries) than in September.
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So: you have to make your appointment for a visitor visa in advance. Each consulate only has so much capacity per day and only accept X appointments. So they know what their max capacity will be for NIVs on any given day. It's an easy workaround and does not mean they should schedule fewer IVs because of that. Also in most (all?) countries you can get a visitor visa at any US consulate but there will only be one per country dealing with immigrant visas. So the visitor load is spread anyway.
Or look at it a different way, the implication of what you re saying is they should change IVs to fit seasonality in NIVs - but IVs will always have priority in the big picture so they would not do it that way round.
I think the main reason they do it this way is so that by August they have the bulk and then September is there for dealing with the late DS submissions/last minute discoveries of winning and clearing AP. They surely don't want to backload the DV cases and then suddenly have all sorts of AP etc to start dealing with in the last days of September...
 
I think the main reason they do it this way is so that by August they have the bulk and then September is there for dealing with the late DS submissions/last minute discoveries of winning and clearing AP. They surely don't want to backload the DV cases and then suddenly have all sorts of AP etc to start dealing with in the last days of September...[/QUOTE]

1) How late DS submission affect September visa processing? If a DS is submitted after
July VB is released (around June 10) there is no way an applicant could still get an interview because the last 2nd letters are out around July 20th (40 days later).
2) Clearing AP. In DV 2014, there were 987 cases in AP on 9/1/2014 and 880 on 9/30/2014
3) In EU they issued 1,352 visas in June and 518 in September. In AF 1,656 in June and 3,360 in September (2,362 vs. 2,249 in AP) Wouldn't they want to apply the same logic to regions other than EU?
I am no saying 2015 can't be the same as 2014 but I still can't see why.
 
Knot said:
1) How late DS submission affect September visa processing? If a DS is submitted after
July VB is released (around June 10) there is no way an applicant could still get an interview because the last 2nd letters are out around July 20th (40 days later).
2) Clearing AP. In DV 2014, there were 987 cases in AP on 9/1/2014 and 880 on 9/30/2014
3) In EU they issued 1,352 visas in June and 518 in September. In AF 1,656 in June and 3,360 in September (2,362 vs. 2,249 in AP) Wouldn't they want to apply the same logic to regions other than EU?
I am no saying 2015 can't be the same as 2014 but I still can't see why.
Click to expand...

On the first I bolded above - I can't say it is the same given they are not short of visas this year, but I am aware of a case (verified not hearsay) in DV2012 where someone discovered in middle of August they had won, with the help of KCC they had an interview set up for early September even with paper DS230 then! So they can do it if they need to. Of course in 2012 they were way under target, they may not do the same now. But it can happen if you are current, it is not a case of if they have sent the "last" batch of 2NLs out you have missed it.

On the second - typically there are not a lot of AF cases on AP as a percentage of visas. If they are denied it tends to be quick. Or maybe last year they just reached their EU quota faster than they expected ....

I'm not sure what AP numbers you are referring to in your point 2 vs your point 3 btw. if they are total or region or what but they are vastly different...
 
SusieQQQ said:
On the first I bolded above - I can't say it is the same given they are not short of visas this year, but I am aware of a case (verified not hearsay) in DV2012 where someone discovered in middle of August they had won, with the help of KCC they had an interview set up for early September even with paper DS230 then! So they can do it if they need to. Of course in 2012 they were way under target, they may not do the same now. But it can happen if you are current, it is not a case of if they have sent the "last" batch of 2NLs out you have missed it.

On the second - typically there are not a lot of AF cases on AP as a percentage of visas. If they are denied it tends to be quick. Or maybe last year they just reached their EU quota faster than they expected ....

I'm not sure what AP numbers you are referring to in your point 2 vs your point 3 btw. if they are total or region or what but they are vastly different...
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The first AP is for EU, the second for AF. just to show that the large increase of visas issued in AF wasn't mostly from AP cases.
You say "Or maybe last year they just reached their EU quota faster than they expected ...." - exactly, maybe. Knowing that, is it their plan to be surprised again?
 
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