DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

[johnelliot344]

There is a lottery. The rules say that anyone in the region should have an equal chance of winning, compared to anyone else within the region. So - if one country has 1000 entries and another has 100,000 entries, the second country will have 100 times more selectees than the first country. No mystery, nothing sinister. Anyone is free to enter - KCC don't limit or control who enters - it is up to the individuals within any country.

So - Sri Lanka had 53k entries for DV2015 and Nepal had 545k entries so you would expect them to have 10x the number of selectees - wouldn't you.

But wait!!!! Nepal has 4991 selectees while Sri Lanka has 1303 selectees. Nepal only has 4x the SL number. I said they should have an equal chance so what happened???

Well what happened is this. Nepal got 11 to 12k selectees spread over the same number range as SL got 1300. That actually shows that more Nepalese cases got disqualified during the draw than Sri Lanka. The highest case number is 19171 so SL has 68 selectees per 1000 whilst Nepal has 550 per 1000. KCC decided it was pointless to inform 11000 Nepalese selectees since the rules limit any one country to around 3500 visas, so KCC disqualified all Nepalese winners after about 9000 - meaning their winners are all "concentrated" in the first 9000.

Since case number is the rank order, the rules say that the cases at 1000 should go before the cases at 5000 or 10000, so the early winners are mainly Nepalese. Nepal will exhaust their 7% limit at around case number 7500, so roughly 1000 of the 4991 Nepalese will be left disappointed.

If you read the above slowly and carefully you can see that the typical Nepalese case actually has less chance than an entrant from some other Asia region country. Some people have had this explained several times in various gentle ways but still refuse to take an adult understanding. Since I have a 6 year old child, I recognize the behavior quite well, but I hope you will understand the explanation I have given....

i gotcha it's the number of selectees, you mention only Nepal..........and Iran? the same explanation goes?........don't worry im not looking for a fight hhahaa..............I just want to understand better

so every year Nepal and Iran gets the most entries year after year?

 

[johnelliot344]

Ok guys, I've been reading the previous comments with interest, so allow me to state my opinion. Being new to this wonderful forum, I've been extensively reading through various threads over the last couple of days. While some stuff, (like why Nepal defines the pace of the bulletin , and how Iran's background checks (APS) and their clearance rate will impact the final cutoff for Asia), were easy to understand, I think I still need to go over Britsimon's last few comments to completely understand how things go for Asia. Still, I'm gonna state my opinion, while remaining at the same time open to corrections. I'm not argumentative in nature, and certainly don't want to turn into the forum's "black sheep" (I'm not sure if that expression is used in English).

While I can definitely say that Siliconeslinger's opinions are rather extreme, I cannot help but sympathize with him, only because I'm in the same crappy situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Britsimon and other respected members are 100% right about the mechanics of the DV program and the statistical issues, so I'm not going to argue with that. But does it make it any easier for us? Unfortunately, no! I don't mean to cause any offence, but most people here have their visas, none of them had to experience the disappointment of losing this opportunity of a lifetime to leave their crappy third-world countries, no matter how much they can think they can put themselves in our shoes. Heck, tears are welling in my eyes as I write these words. I know the winning letter said that nothing is guaranteed, but again does that make it easier? No. I always knew that I had a high-ish case number, but last year's cutoff always made me hopeful.

What I can't explain, is why did they bother to select people up to number 19,000?!! Did they truly think that they can actually reach that number? They were smart enough when it actually came to disqualifying too high Nepalese number. Couldn't they have done the same for ROA, and spared thousands of people the disappointment? I'd actually rather be treated like a Nepalese and be disqualified before ever knowing than I won, rather than go through the disappointment of winning with a too high number. Millions of people get disappointed because they didn't win every year, but come on this a FREAKING LOTTERY, and it's part of the process. Missing out because you have a high CN is a completely different issue. Just ask me, I applied last year and didn't win, and I won this year with a high CN. I think we all know which is worse..

In conclusion, I completely respect everything that's been said above, but if I miss out (and it appears I will), will it make me rest at ease knowing that some countries got thousands and thousands of visas and actually hit the upper limit allowed by law? NO, and it's not about the mentality of a 6-year old either. Any answer otherwise will be a downright lie, in my opinion.
These are my 2 cents. I'm sorry if I offended anyone, that was not my intention. Again, I ask everyone with a disapproving approach, to try, as much as possible, to walk in our shoes (I know that's not 100% possible), and see how THEY will handle this.

Much love and respect to everyone!

i think you have 11400 right? if i remember correctly............i know britsimon has to be politically correct if you will, so he'll never tell anyone the percentage of chances, just a lot of "wait and sees" which i guess is the smart response........but honestly, it seems you have a pretty good chance unless something absolutely drastic happens with ROA 140-150/1000 stuff or Iran...............dry your eyes

 

[Sensei-san]

i gotcha it's the number of selectees, you mention only Nepal..........and Iran? the same explanation goes?........don't worry im not looking for a fight hhahaa..............I just want to understand better

so every year Nepal and Iran gets the most entries year after year?

Yes, most entries. Iran is a different animal. They have as many selectees as Nepal, but they don't have the same response rate, approval rate, and, most importantly, they do have the highest AP rate. Due to these reasons, they are not in danger of hitting the country limit. As last year, thousands of APs did not clear before the end of September.

This is one step further on what's become known as Elmar-siliconeslinger Scale - imagine being selected with a low CN, having interview (paying medicals, visa fees etc. for a whole family), waiting until the very last day of September, and than, nothing..
How about walking those shoes?

 

[Elmar]

i think you have 11400 right? if i remember correctly............i know britsimon has to be politically correct if you will, so he'll never tell anyone the percentage of chances, just a lot of "wait and sees" which i guess is the smart response........but honestly, it seems you have a pretty good chance unless something absolutely drastic happens with ROA 140-150/1000 stuff or Iran...............dry your eyes

I'll try to remain hopeful. Thanks for commenting!

 

[Elmar]

Yes, most entries. Iran is a different animal. They have as many selectees as Nepal, but they don't have the same response rate, approval rate, and, most importantly, they do have the highest AP rate. Due to these reasons, they are not in danger of hitting the country limit. As last year, thousands of APs did not clear before the end of September.

This is one step further on what's become known as Elmar-siliconeslinger Scale - imagine being selected with a low CN, having interview (paying medicals, visa fees etc. for a whole family), waiting until the very last day of September, and than, nothing..
How about walking those shoes?

My dear sir, I'm not arguing the logic nor denying it, all I'm saying is that it doesn't make the situation easier. If you cannot relate to that or understand it, then I have no more words for you. Thank you for commenting!

 

[SusieQQQ]

Ok guys, I've been reading the previous comments with interest, so allow me to state my opinion. Being new to this wonderful forum, I've been extensively reading through various threads over the last couple of days. While some stuff, (like why Nepal defines the pace of the bulletin , and how Iran's background checks (APS) and their clearance rate will impact the final cutoff for Asia), were easy to understand, I think I still need to go over Britsimon's last few comments to completely understand how things go for Asia. Still, I'm gonna state my opinion, while remaining at the same time open to corrections. I'm not argumentative in nature, and certainly don't want to turn into the forum's "black sheep" (I'm not sure if that expression is used in English).

While I can definitely say that Siliconeslinger's opinions are rather extreme, I cannot help but sympathize with him, only because I'm in the same crappy situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Britsimon and other respected members are 100% right about the mechanics of the DV program and the statistical issues, so I'm not going to argue with that. But does it make it any easier for us? Unfortunately, no! I don't mean to cause any offence, but most people here have their visas, none of them had to experience the disappointment of losing this opportunity of a lifetime to leave their crappy third-world countries, no matter how much they can think they can put themselves in our shoes. Heck, tears are welling in my eyes as I write these words. I know the winning letter said that nothing is guaranteed, but again does that make it easier? No. I always knew that I had a high-ish case number, but last year's cutoff always made me hopeful.

What I can't explain, is why did they bother to select people up to number 19,000?!! Did they truly think that they can actually reach that number? They were smart enough when it actually came to disqualifying too high Nepalese number. Couldn't they have done the same for ROA, and spared thousands of people the disappointment? I'd actually rather be treated like a Nepalese and be disqualified before ever knowing than I won, rather than go through the disappointment of winning with a too high number. Millions of people get disappointed because they didn't win every year, but come on this a FREAKING LOTTERY, and it's part of the process. Missing out because you have a high CN is a completely different issue. Just ask me, I applied last year and didn't win, and I won this year with a high CN. I think we all know which is worse..

In conclusion, I completely respect everything that's been said above, but if I miss out (and it appears I will), will it make me rest at ease knowing that some countries got thousands and thousands of visas and actually hit the upper limit allowed by law? NO, and it's not about the mentality of a 6-year old either. Any answer otherwise will be a downright lie, in my opinion.
These are my 2 cents. I'm sorry if I offended anyone, that was not my intention. Again, I ask everyone with a disapproving approach, to try, as much as possible, to walk in our shoes (I know that's not 100% possible), and see how THEY will handle this.

Much love and respect to everyone!

We were devastated for our forum friends last year from other regions who missed out as well. It's not only you and siliconslinger. They selected too many people for DV2014 and DV2015 and have now corrected for this. And the reasons they selected too many have been dealt with many times here, you said you read extensively, I'm surprised you did not come across that discussion. By focusing on Nepal you are missing the point entirely. There are always countries with large amounts of winners compared to others even when all regions have gone current. Our friends in SA and OC and EU who lost out last year and will this year are just as much a victim of overselection as you.

Thank you for not arguing like a 6-year old like certain others, but it doesn't change the fact that as far as the process goes it has been "fair". To take your argument to the extreme that they should be fair across countries would mean that for small countries where they may only have a couple of hundred entrants, all those entrants should be selected. Would that be fair? Of course not, you can't have some regions with 100% selection rate. But what you are trying to argue is that kcc should manipulate the system so that to you it looks "fair" because how you understand fair is not consistent with a fair and equal chance of being selected, which is what the lottery is about. So being upset about Nepal possibly hitting the quota doesn't make sense. Being upset about them allowing selectees to higher numbers make more sense, and I suppose it's no consolation to you to know that they have corrected for that with DV2016.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Yes, most entries. Iran is a different animal. They have as many selectees as Nepal, but they don't have the same response rate, approval rate, and, most importantly, they do have the highest AP rate. Due to these reasons, they are not in danger of hitting the country limit. As last year, thousands of APs did not clear before the end of September.

This is one step further on what's become known as Elmar-siliconeslinger Scale - imagine being selected with a low CN, having interview (paying medicals, visa fees etc. for a whole family), waiting until the very last day of September, and than, nothing..
How about walking those shoes?

Precisely.
But I see from the response to your post that someone is too wrapped up in their own issue to care about others despite asking/expecting that exact consideration in their own case. Sigh.

 

[Elmar]

We were devastated for our forum friends last year from other regions who missed out as well. It's not only you and siliconslinger. They selected too many people for DV2014 and DV2015 and have now corrected for this. And the reasons they selected too many have been dealt with many times here, you said you read extensively, I'm surprised you did not come across that discussion. By focusing on Nepal you are missing the point entirely. There are always countries with large amounts of winners compared to others even when all regions have gone current. Our friends in SA and OC and EU who lost out last year and will this year are just as much a victim of overselection as you.

Thank you for not arguing like a 6-year old like certain others, but it doesn't change the fact that as far as the process goes it has been "fair". To take your argument to the extreme that they should be fair across countries would mean that for small countries where they may only have a couple of hundred entrants, all those entrants should be selected. Would that be fair? Of course not, you can't have some regions with 100% selection rate. But what you are trying to argue is that kcc should manipulate the system so that to you it looks "fair" because how you understand fair is not consistent with a fair and equal chance of being selected, which is what the lottery is about. So being upset about Nepal possibly hitting the quota doesn't make sense. Being upset about them allowing selectees to higher numbers make more sense, and I suppose it's no consolation to you to know that they have corrected for that with DV2016.

Thank you SusieQQQ. Of course, I'm not here to argue, I was just trying say how I feel, and I'm sure thousands are having some feelings of disappointment for various reasons, some of them like me, or waiting fro their AP to finish and so on, I will try to be more considerate of those in my head. To say more, I'm 100% sure that you (and by you, I mean respected forum members) will "beat" me when it comes to the facts and logic behind the DV program. I'm sorry if I sounded like I was blaming certain countries for my problem, that was not my intention. In fact, if something has to be blamed, it would be the overselection in the first place. Just wanted to make that clear.
I promise you and everyone that what you heard from me today won't be repeated again. Maybe it was uncalled for, but everyone was just saying something, so I thought: why not? You can call it more of an emotional outburst more than anything. After all, from here until July 15th, there's still plenty of time to make my peace with this matter, and anyway, it's not over til it's over. Thank you again!

 

[NaraLB]

I think everyone was so pissed at siliconeslinger that poor elmar took the heat But seriously in elmar's defense, it is easy to forget to be selfless if such opportunity like the DV is on the line. After all, no one is gonna juggle and sing happily if they were left out..

 

[Sensei-san]

My dear sir, I'm not arguing the logic nor denying it, all I'm saying is that it doesn't make the situation easier. If you cannot relate to that or understand it, then I have no more words for you. Thank you for commenting!

I'm just saying, we don't have to be all velvety. There are a lot of people in a better position than yours, true. I know people from comfortable countries, taking up DVs to have better climate, and it's not their fault. But there are a lot people in the worse position too.

My CN is quite higher than yours. It has been heartbreaking watching the progress over the year. As a sensitive man, if I don't make it, I will cry and whine, but privately to myself.

Don't get me wrong, I do not blame you or even siliconslinger. Whatever people believe in or say - it's none of my business. On the contrary, I find characters like siliconslinger and akaopolo rather amusing.

 

[SusieQQQ]

I think everyone was so pissed at siliconeslinger that poor elmar took the heat But seriously in elmar's defense, it is easy to forget to be selfless if such opportunity like the DV is on the line. After all, no one is gonna juggle and sing happily if they were left out..

I don't think Elmar really took heat at all. Just a bit of perspective
Unlike SS he did not rejoice in a country's disaster...that was when people really lost their patience with SS.

 

[Britsimon]

Thank you SusieQQQ. Of course, I'm not here to argue, I was just trying say how I feel, and I'm sure thousands are having some feelings of disappointment for various reasons, some of them like me, or waiting fro their AP to finish and so on, I will try to be more considerate of those in my head. To say more, I'm 100% sure that you (and by you, I mean respected forum members) will "beat" me when it comes to the facts and logic behind the DV program. I'm sorry if I sounded like I was blaming certain countries for my problem, that was not my intention. In fact, if something has to be blamed, it would be the overselection in the first place. Just wanted to make that clear.
I promise you and everyone that what you heard from me today won't be repeated again. Maybe it was uncalled for, but everyone was just saying something, so I thought: why not? You can call it more of an emotional outburst more than anything. After all, from here until July 15th, there's still plenty of time to make my peace with this matter, and anyway, it's not over til it's over. Thank you again!

I read your earlier posts. The thing is, the regulars here know what its like to be in your shoes. Whilst Mom, Susie and I have all been in the lucky side and got our GCs we have all watched some very nice, very deserving people miss out sometimes by a few numbers. Its brutally dissapointing for them and we have felt their pain.

So - I understand the emotional aspect that you voice. It sucks to be selected with a high case number. I get that. That, quite honestly, is why I spend countless hours providing data and information because the only thing worse than being in the sucky position of having a high CN is being in that sucky position and not knowing a damn thing about it until the program ends on 9/30 and you cannot understand why you never got your 2NL. So - the information should help.

Now as pointed out, SS has had the information explained a number of times. He CHOOSES to make it "personal" about Nepal and voiced his excitement when they were hit by an earthquake. Sorry - but that is a despicable attitude - and that tends to bring a certain reaction the next time we have to read his deliberately inaccurate posts.

You have the same feelings of pain as he has and many others this year and previous years. You are entitled to that and we TOTALLY get it. However, at least you are being given information to be able to understand - and have been gracious enough to not direct your anger at specific countries. So - no problem with expressing you sadness and anger - you will find a sympathetic shoulder here.

 

[johnelliot344]

just wondering somthing totally random, is it wise to unlock the DS260 at this point to change something quickly?

I guess the question is, i submitted it a long time ago, so it should be processed already, but if i change something now at this stage, is this the same thing as re-submitting it, meaning it has to be processed again?........im concerned about the time frame here that it might not be ready for a potential september interview

thanks for the great help in advance

 

[Britsimon]

just wondering somthing totally random, is it wise to unlock the DS260 at this point to change something quickly?

It is better to have an accurate DS260 - however, it depends on when your case will be current... a signature would help.

 

[johnelliot344]

It is better to have an accurate DS260 - however, it depends on when your case will be current... a signature would help.

I guess the question is, i submitted it a long time ago, so it should be processed already, but if i change something now at this stage, is this the same thing as re-submitting it, meaning it has to be processed again?........im concerned about the time frame here that it might not be ready for a potential september interview
I already signed it the first time i submitted it.


thanks for the great help in advance

 

[SusieQQQ]

I guess the question is, i submitted it a long time ago, so it should be processed already, but if i change something now at this stage, is this the same thing as re-submitting it, meaning it has to be processed again?........im concerned about the time frame here that it might not be ready for a potential september interview
I already signed it the first time i submitted it.


thanks for the great help in advance

Signature here on the forum.. Lol

No it won't delay it, but your call.

 

[siliconeslinger]

Ok guys, I've been reading the previous comments with interest, so allow me to state my opinion. Being new to this wonderful forum, I've been extensively reading through various threads over the last couple of days. While some stuff, (like why Nepal defines the pace of the bulletin , and how Iran's background checks (APS) and their clearance rate will impact the final cutoff for Asia), were easy to understand, I think I still need to go over Britsimon's last few comments to completely understand how things go for Asia. Still, I'm gonna state my opinion, while remaining at the same time open to corrections. I'm not argumentative in nature, and certainly don't want to turn into the forum's "black sheep" (I'm not sure if that expression is used in English).

While I can definitely say that Siliconeslinger's opinions are rather extreme, I cannot help but sympathize with him, only because I'm in the same crappy situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Britsimon and other respected members are 100% right about the mechanics of the DV program and the statistical issues, so I'm not going to argue with that. But does it make it any easier for us? Unfortunately, no! I don't mean to cause any offence, but most people here have their visas, none of them had to experience the disappointment of losing this opportunity of a lifetime to leave their crappy third-world countries, no matter how much they can think they can put themselves in our shoes. Heck, tears are welling in my eyes as I write these words. I know the winning letter said that nothing is guaranteed, but again does that make it easier? No. I always knew that I had a high-ish case number, but last year's cutoff always made me hopeful.

What I can't explain, is why did they bother to select people up to number 19,000?!! Did they truly think that they can actually reach that number? They were smart enough when it actually came to disqualifying too high Nepalese number. Couldn't they have done the same for ROA, and spared thousands of people the disappointment? I'd actually rather be treated like a Nepalese and be disqualified before ever knowing than I won, rather than go through the disappointment of winning with a too high number. Millions of people get disappointed because they didn't win every year, but come on this a FREAKING LOTTERY, and it's part of the process. Missing out because you have a high CN is a completely different issue. Just ask me, I applied last year and didn't win, and I won this year with a high CN. I think we all know which is worse..

In conclusion, I completely respect everything that's been said above, but if I miss out (and it appears I will), will it make me rest at ease knowing that some countries got thousands and thousands of visas and actually hit the upper limit allowed by law? NO, and it's not about the mentality of a 6-year old either. Any answer otherwise will be a downright lie, in my opinion.
These are my 2 cents. I'm sorry if I offended anyone, that was not my intention. Again, I ask everyone with a disapproving approach, to try, as much as possible, to walk in our shoes (I know that's not 100% possible), and see how THEY will handle this.

Much love and respect to everyone!

Someone give this guy a cookie pls

Yes, no matter how hard they try they will never feel what we feel, because they're not from Asia. Europe and Africa are completely different than asia as in they don't have one "special country" getting prioritized.. So their cn goes much faster

Yes, if someone missed out and he knows there are thousands of people out there in a small country stealing most of the visas, and said country gets prioritized above others of course he's gonna be mad, of course he's not gonna jump in excitement no matter how much explanation is told, everybody is selfish in their own way. Some people just don't get it.

Yup can't agree more, IT SUCKS being selected with a high cn, being NOT SELECTED is much much better, at least i get to know my fate right away, not like this having to wait a year just to know whether I'll ever get the coveted visa. At least when you don't get selected, they tell you right away "no visa for you" when you get selected with a high cn, it's like they're saying "umm.. We're not sure if you'll ever get the visa, just hang in there for a year while we decide your fate"

In regards to nepal earthquake. If it benefits people from the roa, i won't be a hypocrite.. I'm sure others from roa think the same way as i do "this could mean higher cn for me"...

KFC indeed never learns, always picks too many selectees, selling false hope..

I hope dv2016's 91k isn't too many.

Again like i said earlier, if they really wanna make it fair for everyone, they should do the same thing to nepal like they do Egypt and Ethiopia.. Make a separate vb for Nepal, that'll ensure asia can progress normally while respecting Nepalese cases..

I also applied for dv2014 and didn't get selected, i was disappointed but it didn't last long. This one is a lot different.. Like you get selected but not really selected

"the process has been fair" 2 continents don't get their vb held back despite having "special countries" while one continent does because of one earthquake-stricken country is fair indeed..

 

[SusieQQQ]

t there in a small country stealing most of the visas, ....

Again like i said earlier, if they really wanna make it fair for everyone, they should do the same thing to nepal like they do Egypt and Ethiopia.. Make a separate vb for Nepal, that'll ensure asia can progress normally while respecting Nepalese cases..

Maybe if you stopped moaning into your belly button and opened your eyes and looked at the visa bulletin, you'd see that they have limited Nepal. No doubt you'll decide it's not enough to stop whining, though

And no-one is "stealing" visas and no, it's not true that other people are happy that thousands of Nepalese have died. Life was really much better around here while you were banned, in my opinion.

 

[siliconeslinger]

Maybe if you stopped moaning into your belly button and opened your eyes and looked at the visa bulletin, you'd see that they have limited Nepal. No doubt you'll decide it's not enough to stop whining, though

And no-one is "stealing" visas and no, it's not true that other people are happy that thousands of Nepalese have died. Life was really much better around here while you were banned, in my opinion.

They should've done from the beginning, now it's too late, and no they're not limited just yet... They're gonna increase again.. To the detriment of roa

 

[NaraLB]

I don't think Elmar really took heat at all. Just a bit of perspective
Unlike SS he did not rejoice in a country's disaster...that was when people really lost their patience with SS.

Yes, that and his persistent inability to understand simple math..