johnelliot344
Member
so a small jump next VB would indicate that Asia's screwed is what you're saying?
DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+
- Thread starter Elmar
- Start date
so a small jump next VB would indicate that Asia's screwed is what you're saying?
Sensei-san
Active Member
As far as I know - we do not exactly know what happens if one region underfills the quota, we have only estimates of those quotas anyway. Each region has enough selectees from many countries to fill its quota, and the VB progress is directed accordingly.
Sensei-san
Active Member
Asia is quite on track to fill the quota. High cases in Asia could be "screwed", if the jump is small. But again, we do not have enough historical data about overselected years to meaningfully predict KCC's year-end strategy.
johnelliot344
Member
what is considered small? and large? by the way lol
I am From Sri Lanka CN AS85xx . Is it possible to get interview in August?
Sensei-san
Active Member
Small or large - it is all relative to an observer. There is a group of people here with tantalizing 11xxx-12xxx CNs, even 4000 increase will not be large enough for them. It will keep them guessing what KCC will do for September.
The question is right now - what is Nepal's cut-off and how Iran's APs are doing.
It would somewhat help to see updated CEAC data, but KCC woudn't update it, because Britsimon has been condescending to them about their spotty face hiring practices, and the absence of wet fish in their incentives packages.
Sensei-san
Active Member
Yes, possible.
siliconeslinger
Member
11,4xx would definitely go through without a doubt don't worry, 12,000 and above are fucked.. 13,6XX here, not even hoping to get interviewed, a victim of kcc's false hope
johnelliot344
Member
excuse my ignorance but just out of curiosity, why are Nepal and Iran given so much more than other countries..........i thought the visas would be spread amongst the entire region, but it seems like these two countries take most of them........or is there something im missing here?
siliconeslinger
Member
Nepal has extremely extremely high number of selectees (5k), approval rate (95%) as well as response rate (65%), recent earthquake notwithstanding. those combined take up 40% of the whole asian visas. Iran also takes up 40%. So roa only gets last-minute leftover visa... Might as well change the region code AS to NI (nepal iran) but i digress
Or,KCC just wants more nepalese so badly (lack of Nepalese in America)
If those 2 countries didn't exist Asia would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 40k-50k or even current.
My prediction is those two countries would get disqualified in the next few years down the line.. Just like Bangladesh.. Poor roa
No its not spread out Across the entire region, SOME countries do take a lot more than other countries... Nepal is quite amazing to say the least, a small country can outnumber a whole region, clap clap
In short, because those two countries have a massive number of selectees.. To the detriment of ROA, in other words, ROA gets sacrificed. The KDU Embassy can only take so many selectees, and given the amount of monthly Nepalese cases, it is impossible for them to increase the AS cn by much (otherwise, KDU Embassy would get overloaded by DV Cases), actually, this can be solved by having nepal number separated from the roa number from the beginning of the fiscal year (just like they did last month)thus respecting Nepalese right to get interviewed as well as not holding back ROA Progress (like Egypt and Ethiopia in Africa)
But for SOME reason, they won't do it, perhaps a political one.
Iran isn't as much of a problem for ROA as it is Nepal, while they do have high number of selectees, their approval rate is at the opposite end of the spectrum in comparison to nepal, most if not all cases are put on AP, that can take anywhere from a week to 6 months, suppose you get your interview in July, that wouldn't be enough.. The more Iranian cases that don't clear AP, the better for us,(higher final cn)
When Nepal gets limited, the monthly vb progression gets a massive jump, why? Because now the Asian cases are spread out Across the Asian countries's respective embassy, so they can increase the cn by a lot (5000) and not getting an embassy overloaded
If u wanna know more don't hesitate to PM me, as SOME people here hate my honest opinion..
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
LOLOLOL
Britsimon
Super Moderator
It isn't your "honest opinion" that gets the reaction you mention. It is the deliberate willful ignorance about why things happen the way they do and your characterization that Nepal and Iran somehow rob poor old ROA. This despite several of us having explained the facts to you time and time again.
As for this latest post - there are more factual errors than I can be bothered to address....
siliconeslinger
Member
Indeed they rob poor roa.. A whole continent getting held back just for one f*cking embassy whose country in which it is located is having an earthquake and most of their people can't attend the interview anyway just doesn't make any sense. At least if you insist on taking those Nepalese cases, put them on a SEPARATE VB all along not 2 last vb and even then it's still not limited. It is hardly diversity when most Asian cases are comprised of Nepalese
To kcc : grow a pair, and disqualify nepal.
"not one country that has sent 50,000 immigrants over the past 5 years is qualified to enter in the DV Program"
Enough is enough...
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
There is a lottery. The rules say that anyone in the region should have an equal chance of winning, compared to anyone else within the region. So - if one country has 1000 entries and another has 100,000 entries, the second country will have 100 times more selectees than the first country. No mystery, nothing sinister. Anyone is free to enter - KCC don't limit or control who enters - it is up to the individuals within any country.
So - Sri Lanka had 53k entries for DV2015 and Nepal had 545k entries so you would expect them to have 10x the number of selectees - wouldn't you.
But wait!!!! Nepal has 4991 selectees while Sri Lanka has 1303 selectees. Nepal only has 4x the SL number. I said they should have an equal chance so what happened???
Well what happened is this. Nepal got 11 to 12k selectees spread over the same number range as SL got 1300. That actually shows that more Nepalese cases got disqualified during the draw than Sri Lanka. The highest case number is 19171 so SL has 68 selectees per 1000 whilst Nepal has 550 per 1000. KCC decided it was pointless to inform 11000 Nepalese selectees since the rules limit any one country to around 3500 visas, so KCC disqualified all Nepalese winners after about 9000 - meaning their winners are all "concentrated" in the first 9000.
Since case number is the rank order, the rules say that the cases at 1000 should go before the cases at 5000 or 10000, so the early winners are mainly Nepalese. Nepal will exhaust their 7% limit at around case number 7500, so roughly 1000 of the 4991 Nepalese will be left disappointed.
If you read the above slowly and carefully you can see that the typical Nepalese case actually has less chance than an entrant from some other Asia region country. Some people have had this explained several times in various gentle ways but still refuse to take an adult understanding. Since I have a 6 year old child, I recognize the behavior quite well, but I hope you will understand the explanation I have given....
siliconeslinger
Member
And how many roa cases are left disappointed in comparison to Nepalese ones..
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Selection is random, and therefore pretty much in proportion to entries - so countries who have more entrants have more selectees. These two countries have lots of entries.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
What you call "an honest opinion", others call "an inability to understand basic statistics".
Britsimon
Super Moderator
LESS. LESS. LESS. LESS. LESS. LESS. LESS.
Don't you get it??? LESS.
I just explained. About 7000 Nepal cases (that had the same chance as you in a random lottery draw) will share the same fate that you will have. Given the ROA density, the cases say from 13000 to 19171 is 1857 cases - so about 3500 people. That is LESS than 7000.
Thanks, and regarding your case, never say never until it's over..
Ok guys, I've been reading the previous comments with interest, so allow me to state my opinion. Being new to this wonderful forum, I've been extensively reading through various threads over the last couple of days. While some stuff, (like why Nepal defines the pace of the bulletin , and how Iran's background checks (APS) and their clearance rate will impact the final cutoff for Asia), were easy to understand, I think I still need to go over Britsimon's last few comments to completely understand how things go for Asia. Still, I'm gonna state my opinion, while remaining at the same time open to corrections. I'm not argumentative in nature, and certainly don't want to turn into the forum's "black sheep" (I'm not sure if that expression is used in English).
While I can definitely say that Siliconeslinger's opinions are rather extreme, I cannot help but sympathize with him, only because I'm in the same crappy situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Britsimon and other respected members are 100% right about the mechanics of the DV program and the statistical issues, so I'm not going to argue with that. But does it make it any easier for us? Unfortunately, no! I don't mean to cause any offence, but most people here have their visas, none of them had to experience the disappointment of losing this opportunity of a lifetime to leave their crappy third-world countries, no matter how much they can think they can put themselves in our shoes. Heck, tears are welling in my eyes as I write these words. I know the winning letter said that nothing is guaranteed, but again does that make it easier? No. I always knew that I had a high-ish case number, but last year's cutoff always made me hopeful.
What I can't explain, is why did they bother to select people up to number 19,000?!! Did they truly think that they can actually reach that number? They were smart enough when it actually came to disqualifying too high Nepalese number. Couldn't they have done the same for ROA, and spared thousands of people the disappointment? I'd actually rather be treated like a Nepalese and be disqualified before ever knowing than I won, rather than go through the disappointment of winning with a too high number. Millions of people get disappointed because they didn't win every year, but come on this a FREAKING LOTTERY, and it's part of the process. Missing out because you have a high CN is a completely different issue. Just ask me, I applied last year and didn't win, and I won this year with a high CN. I think we all know which is worse..
In conclusion, I completely respect everything that's been said above, but if I miss out (and it appears I will), will it make me rest at ease knowing that some countries got thousands and thousands of visas and actually hit the upper limit allowed by law? NO, and it's not about the mentality of a 6-year old either. Any answer otherwise will be a downright lie, in my opinion.
These are my 2 cents. I'm sorry if I offended anyone, that was not my intention. Again, I ask everyone with a disapproving approach, to try, as much as possible, to walk in our shoes (I know that's not 100% possible), and see how THEY will handle this.
Much love and respect to everyone!
While I can definitely say that Siliconeslinger's opinions are rather extreme, I cannot help but sympathize with him, only because I'm in the same crappy situation. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure Britsimon and other respected members are 100% right about the mechanics of the DV program and the statistical issues, so I'm not going to argue with that. But does it make it any easier for us? Unfortunately, no! I don't mean to cause any offence, but most people here have their visas, none of them had to experience the disappointment of losing this opportunity of a lifetime to leave their crappy third-world countries, no matter how much they can think they can put themselves in our shoes. Heck, tears are welling in my eyes as I write these words. I know the winning letter said that nothing is guaranteed, but again does that make it easier? No. I always knew that I had a high-ish case number, but last year's cutoff always made me hopeful.
What I can't explain, is why did they bother to select people up to number 19,000?!! Did they truly think that they can actually reach that number? They were smart enough when it actually came to disqualifying too high Nepalese number. Couldn't they have done the same for ROA, and spared thousands of people the disappointment? I'd actually rather be treated like a Nepalese and be disqualified before ever knowing than I won, rather than go through the disappointment of winning with a too high number. Millions of people get disappointed because they didn't win every year, but come on this a FREAKING LOTTERY, and it's part of the process. Missing out because you have a high CN is a completely different issue. Just ask me, I applied last year and didn't win, and I won this year with a high CN. I think we all know which is worse..
In conclusion, I completely respect everything that's been said above, but if I miss out (and it appears I will), will it make me rest at ease knowing that some countries got thousands and thousands of visas and actually hit the upper limit allowed by law? NO, and it's not about the mentality of a 6-year old either. Any answer otherwise will be a downright lie, in my opinion.
These are my 2 cents. I'm sorry if I offended anyone, that was not my intention. Again, I ask everyone with a disapproving approach, to try, as much as possible, to walk in our shoes (I know that's not 100% possible), and see how THEY will handle this.
Much love and respect to everyone!