DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.
- Thread starter AldoBlack
- Start date
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Unfortunatly its all about a game! Thanks for the info let me know if there is higher than yours?
Good luck
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Very very high ! But lets wait and see. good luck
Kayend
Active Member
Yes, Nepal and Iran took ~40% each of the interviews scheduled up to this point. That's why a special cut off is needed or allocate more visa slots each month in order to speed thing up. This is not new to us, once the CEAC data published we already know that both countries are slowing down Asia progress.
dvbibasd
Member
well, from CEAC datas it is seen that Nepalese selectee covered 40 % weightage as an average upto the month of March. The kcc did not provide a special cutoff for nepal so we are lucky to some extent but on the other hand there may arise a question mark for the total selectee ie 6082(for Nepal) selected from 125k or 140k. we have more than 40 % selectee having case number greater than 10k in our small group of facebook forum and it is recorded that we have 48 selectee with derivatives while counting from 3701 to 3800 case number. From this straight line equation, it is seen that 3500/0.48 = 7292 is the safe zone from nepal (excluding newborn and newly married cases)
But taking an average, 3500/0.4 = 8750 is the safe limit
the case number of mine is AS12*** so, how can I say I am in still safe zone ????
The analysis might be wrong, please reply your fruitful answer!!!
But taking an average, 3500/0.4 = 8750 is the safe limit
the case number of mine is AS12*** so, how can I say I am in still safe zone ????
The analysis might be wrong, please reply your fruitful answer!!!
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Firstly the 3500 country limit will be higher (Iran got over 3700 last year).
Second (and more important) if your number is 12001 it does NOT mean there are 12000 people ahead of you. There are holes in the numbers and only principal selectees have a case number. As a rough guess there are probably something around 10k people in front of you.
Thirdly, not all selectees will respond and not all will be issued a visa. Nepal has a high response and success rate - but it is not 100%!
Kayend
Active Member
You are assuming 48 Nepalis selectees per hundred even from 4k to 9k. What we know so far is that no Iranian are above 9k, so Iranian selectees might dominate case # from 4k to 9k, so that might reduce Nepalis selectees count to maybe 10 selectees per hundred. So, you still consider safe in my opinion. Remember Nepalis did have selectee in 20k above.
dvbibasd
Member
I am new to this forum and the concept about dv is not clear. how did they select the case number??, I mean we have 23k selectee and maximum case # of 27k, but is it possible the spread up of case # upto the highest case# ??( may be 10 selectee per hundred???) or did they fix the case numbers for the countrywise at the time of selection process ??? or is it a random selection???
Britsimon
Super Moderator
If we assume the maximum case number is 27000 that means 27000 entries were selected for further processing - many of those having family members (so the 27k might have represented a total of 40k with family members) However, many of the 27k were found to be ineligible due to fraud so KCC immediately disqualified those entries creating a number of "holes" within the 27000. We don't know exactly how many, but we do know that there were 23k selectees (including family members). So - just as a guess 15k entrants with 8k family members. THat means the 15k were spread among the 27k numbers.
Hope that makes sense
Well I have counted the case numbers further;
4000-4100 # 46
4100-4200 # 36
4200-4300 # 35
4300-4325 # 17
So what I have noticed is, there are around 40 nepalese case numbers out of 100 and just around 20 from other asian countries and the rest of it are holes . So this shows nepalese actually occupies around 60% of case number in total(out of 100 CN)...Till now iran does not seems to dominate the numbers supporting the theory that iran has the maximum case numbers from 5k to 10k... This might be actually a good news for the higher case numbers(>10K) from nepal.
Kayend
Active Member
Is all data from all embassies already available for Mar? Raevsky mentioned that the data is not complete yet, so we need to wait few more days.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
They will cross check the electronic entry with what you later submit in the 122/230 forms. If there is a discrepancy they will red flag that for attention of the embassy during interview. KCC will not disqualify you once you were notified about being selected - so any issue is up to the embassy to resolve. The message you posted doesn't mean anything, good or bad.
Is there a significant difference between your entry and 122/230 forms?
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Just to back up what britsimon said, KCC does not have authority to decide on your case. Once you are selected and have sent in forms, they do some background checks but as he said all they have authority to do is flag any potential problems and forward the forms to the consulate, who will decide on the application. If there is a minor difference it won't be an issue, but if there is an important one, like leaving a spouse or child off the initial application, you will be denied at the consulate.
If my memory is good, i think i ticked "Other University courses " as my educational qualification since i was an Under graduate (not completed my Degree) at that time. I was not aware about the equivalent educational level in Sri Lanka for the "High School" .. But later on i got to know that "High School" is equivalent to A/L in Sri Lanka.. I passed A/L in 2007.. So now i feel some kind of a fear about whether they will think that i deliberately did some kind of a fraud.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Where do you get the 8193 number from?
That doesn't sound right at all. I just checked the entries and derivatives make up around 40% of the 1.6 million AS entries. They will make up therefore around 40% of the 23k - so there should be around 14k cases with about 9k derivatives.
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