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DV-2014 How it differs from previous years ? Plus few questions !

franko

franko

Well-Known Member
Hi all,

I'm new to the forum and to be honest had a look at it for the first time last Wednesday when I got selected for DV-2014 (applied first time and got lucky). Over last few days I have seen quite few fiery discussions mostly between raevsky (guy sound like a dick a lot of times (no offence raevsky) but seems to know a lot about the subject) and few others. Majority of the arguments were about high case number chances for an interview and then GC. One thing that got me interested was people mentioning that this year is different and it might influence the final outcome of the lottery. Could anyone please explain how this year differs from previous years and how it might affect people's chances?

Also if I could, I would like to get few other issues sorted if you dont mind:

1. Some people claim that if all numbers become 'current' (before August) then everyone selected with papers (DSP-122 and DS-230) received by KCC will get an invite for an interview? True/False ?

2. Is there anybody on this forum with high case number (well above cutoff) who got an interview/GC after all numbers become 'current'? I mean 10-20k above the cutoff.

3. How do they choose who gets an interview after all numbers become 'current'? Some claim that it's by CN, some people say that date of application with KCC, some people think that it is both or even random. Any clue?

The reason I am asking these questions is because my CN is very high 2014EU000395XX and I would like to estimate my chances. I am an engineer and like to base my actions on numbers and data :) and some of the 'facts' on this forum contradict each other. I am not in a desperate need to move to USA (I reside in UK and I think I have a pretty OK life) but I had a chance to work in Cali (L1 visa) for some time and I loved the place, my wife loved it even more. So I would like to get as much info as possible to determine if I should start saving a bit more and maybe start thinking about 'how would I approach' moving across the pond or....should I just forget about the whole thing and live my life normally (buying a new car, going on vacation and all that stuff).

I apologise for the 'essay' but I really wanted to get all the info I need in one thread. If people reply I'm sure that other forum members will appreciate these questions answered.

Thanks a lot in advance and please be polite to each other.

Franko
 
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Well you have a long post in here and I will do my best to help you somehow
First of all be polite and do not use things like "guy souns like a dick". We are users of a polite forum and we will not use nor tolerate this kind of language so please behave or you will get reported.
Now lets see:

1. Every selectee will get an interview but there's a catch. If selected, you will have to do your best and reply to KCC with the filled documents in order for you to get the interview as fast as possible. They will move faster with the cut-offs if people will reply faster on their selectee notices. Not replying fast enough could result in a delay long enough to not get the visa if your case will be put under AP
2. I dont know or recall seen a selectee that didnt have the interview. The problem, as wrote above, is only with the AP (if your case will be put under AP)
3.Based on what I've wrote above, all selectees will get the interview but I am not really sure if its random or not. Though I guess is directly related to how fast you'll answer to KCC (once all CN becomes current)
So congrats on getting selected (I didnt have this opportunity- I am at my first application also). And best of luck with the interview and all! IMHO you will have no problem to get the GC if you will reply fast to KCC with the filled forms and you will give the documents they asked on the interview.
So take care and best of luck!
 
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And one more thing : I dont think this year is so different than any other years.
A difference is that,from what I've read, there are more selectees and bigger CNs
The other may be that they are trying to get rid of the DV with a new immigration law and this year might be the last one for the DV program (this is what I am reading around)
 
1. Some people claim that if all numbers become 'current' (before August) then everyone selected with papers (DSP-122 and DS-230) received by KCC will get an invite for an interview? True/False ?
Click to expand...
False

2. Is there anybody on this forum with high case number (well above cutoff) who got an interview/GC after all numbers become 'current'? I mean 10-20k above the cutoff.
Click to expand...
You should ask for those who were winners 13 years ago or more. Because this year scenario is like in those years, not like in recent lotteries.
3. How do they choose who gets an interview after all numbers become 'current'? Some claim that it's by CN, some people say that date of application with KCC, some people think that it is both or even random. Any clue?
Click to expand...
It is mix or CN and date of submission. They see if there are applications submitted with CN before yours. If not, they take you. Of course, if your application has been submitted.
 
Could anyone please explain how this year differs from previous years and how it might affect people's chances?
Click to expand...
This year is very much different because no hidden numbers are present, all winners are open, and that is why about half of winners will not get visas, unlike in recent years (in recent years about all open winners got visas).
So, if qualified candidates were more or less guaranteeded in previous lotteries (recent ones), this is not the case in DV-2014. Only about half of them will get interviews.
 
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Why are you so sure about this?

raevsky said:
This year is different because no hidden numbers are present, all winners are open, and that is why only about half of winners will not get visas, unlike in recent years (in recent years about all open winners got visas).
So, ig qualified candidates were more or less guaranteeded in previous lottery, this is not the case in DV-2014.Only about half of them will get interviews.
Click to expand...
 
Hi there,

Thanks for all the answers. I appreciate your input. Just to begin with I would like to say that I did not say that raevsky is a dick. Not planning on starting beef with anyone. He just simply sounds like one (he does not seem to be bothered by my comment anyway, I wouldn't be either). He is blunt about the stuff and has no intention of even sounding polite or giving people false hope and what is probably annoying to lots of people he is persistent and present in every thread :)

Based on what I have read I will take steady, balanced approach. I won't start saving like crazy and plan ahead because at this point nobody can predict where will I end up with my case number. I am sure that my only chance to get GC is when all numbers become current in Europe and based on previous years I can hope that happens just above 30k. So really the only thing that I can do is check the bulletin every month and check the forum from time to time.

According to my DHL tracking my DSP-122 and DS-230 forms plus photos should arrive in Williamsburg tomorrow so my work for now is done. Thanks again for all the answers.
 
With this approach you might have not enough time to apply. Numbers might be current too late, August or September.
 
franko said:
Hi all,

I'm new to the forum and to be honest had a look at it for the first time last Wednesday when I got selected for DV-2014 (applied first time and got lucky). Over last few days I have seen quite few fiery discussions mostly between raevsky (guy sound like a dick a lot of times (no offence raevsky) but seems to know a lot about the subject) and few others. Majority of the arguments were about high case number chances for an interview and then GC. One thing that got me interested was people mentioning that this year is different and it might influence the final outcome of the lottery. Could anyone please explain how this year differs from previous years and how it might affect people's chances?

Also if I could, I would like to get few other issues sorted if you dont mind:

1. Some people claim that if all numbers become 'current' (before August) then everyone selected with papers (DSP-122 and DS-230) received by KCC will get an invite for an interview? True/False ?

2. Is there anybody on this forum with high case number (well above cutoff) who got an interview/GC after all numbers become 'current'? I mean 10-20k above the cutoff.

3. How do they choose who gets an interview after all numbers become 'current'? Some claim that it's by CN, some people say that date of application with KCC, some people think that it is both or even random. Any clue?

The reason I am asking these questions is because my CN is very high 2014EU000395XX and I would like to estimate my chances. I am engineer and like to base my actions on numbers and data :) and some of the 'facts' on this forum contradict each other. I am not in a desperate need to move to USA (I reside in UK and I think I have a pretty OK life) but I had a chance to work in Cali (L1 visa) for some time and I loved the place, my wife loved it even more. So I would like to get as much info as possible to determine if I should start saving a bit more and maybe start thinking about 'how would I approach' moving across the pond or....should I just forget about the whole thing and live my life normally (buying a new car, going on vacation and all that stuff).

I apologise for the 'essay' but I really wanted to get all the info I need in one thread. If people reply I'm sure that other forum members will appreciate these questions answered.

Thanks a lot in advance and please be polite to each other.

Franko
Click to expand...

Please check for your self the bulletin for July 2011 it had cut off for EUROPE 33,000 Uzbekistan 28,200 but in the month of August EUROPE CURRENT Uzbekistan UNAVAILABLE meaning that they has exhausted Uzbekistan's visas but the rest of Europe all other people were likely to get their 2NL notification letter for interview. July bulletin for 2012 is not far also you can check for yourself as well

You are an Engineer, have nothing to lose and am sure a very genuine and straight forward man please go ahead and send those forms to KCC and wait for your interview letter probably next year August. Do your own seach and come up with a decision that suits you.
 
raevsky said:
With this approach you might have not enough time to apply. Numbers might be current too late, August or September.
Click to expand...

Hi raevsky. What do you mean by that ?

Like I said in my last post:

"According to my DHL tracking my DSP-122 and DS-230 forms plus photos should arrive in Williamsburg (KCC) tomorrow (05-06-2013) so my work for now is done."


Correct me if I'm wrong but I cannot do anything else to increase my chances at this point ?

I know it sounds crazy but I had the documents ready to send day before the announcement of the results. It's just the way I deal with stuff. Always ready, always prepared :) It did not cost me anything to have the docs filled and ready.
 
franko said:
Hi raevsky. What do you mean by that ?

Like I said in my last post:

"According to my DHL tracking my DSP-122 and DS-230 forms plus photos should arrive in Williamsburg (KCC) tomorrow (05-06-2013) so my work for now is done."


Correct me if I'm wrong but I cannot do anything else to increase my chances at this point ?

I know it sounds crazy but I had the documents ready to send day before the announcement of the results. It's just the way I deal with stuff. Always ready, always prepared :) It did not cost me anything to have the docs filled and ready.
Click to expand...

I misinterpreted your answer. I thought you are going to send documents to KCC after 30k becomes current.
 
DOS mentions in the winner notification letter 125,000 entries have been registered for DV2014. That's quite a bit more than previous years, about +25%. No wonder why there are much more selected entries this year. Also, for FY12, much less visas were granted than the 50,000. That's not good for a program whose credibility has been questioned recently, and someone up in the USCIS/DOS organizations has probably directed his/her staff to adjust the number of registered entries to make sure they get as close as possible to the 50,000 visas. They probably didn't do that last year for FY13 because they did not know yet the low number of visas that would be eventually granted for FY12. I guess this is why 2014 is different from 2013, and different from the years before. They really want to max out the number of visas to the extent of the 50,000 allocated to the DV program, with the risk of having winners with high CN that might never get interviewed. Not sure all regions will be CURRENT this time, but, hey, who knows... until we see what really happens next year.
 
maybe they want to give a chance to high case numbers too maybe there are lots more holes in the numbers so they reveal the higher ones too. who knows. they know what they're doing. but i don't think that these numbers don't stand a chance at all. i believe they do, maybe not all of them but saying that all the high case numbers like above 30K won't go to an interview makes no sense cause there are numbers in the 50K so revealing plus around 20K numbers this year while they don't need them to proceed is an absurd. or that's how i get it.
 
i was talking about europe and the same thing happens for all the regions. there must be a good explanation behind this thing with the really high CNs, lot better than just saying that hey u don't get a chance simply cause ur number is high and high numbers don't get a chance. period. sorry but that's not enough. we will see in few months or when they post the results online for this year.
 
macemk said:
i was talking about europe and the same thing happens for all the regions. there must be a good explanation behind this thing with the really high CNs, lot better than just saying that hey u don't get a chance simply cause ur number is high and high numbers don't get a chance. period. sorry but that's not enough. we will see in few months or when they post the results online for this year.
Click to expand...

Before they post any result Online there might first be a 2nd Draw.... But Since they released very hight numbers does it mean that they want to make sure they fill out the 50 000 places in 1 shoot and there will be no need for a 2nd DRAW?
Correct me if I'm wrong.
 
ONEDAYIMAY said:
Before they post any result Online there might first be a 2nd Draw.... But Since they released very hight numbers does it mean that they want to make sure they fill out the 50 000 places in 1 shoot and there will be no need for a 2nd DRAW?
Correct me if I'm wrong.
Click to expand...

No they don't need to. there's only one selcetion in may and that's it. in october they just reveal more numbers from those already selected and just change their status. so they can publish the results even now I think the numbers is that and no changes will be made anyway. i didn't know how things go at first but the hidden winners theory does make sense to me cause i was notified on the 22nd of october that i was selected and the date was from may 1st so it means that that's when they selected me but didn't tell me until october cause i checked back in may and many times in october until the notification letter changed on the 22nd as they said they would select more winners additionally.
 
And would really like to be a second draw this year too so more people be happier knowing they were selcted but i can't tell anything. besides this time they didn't say anything about an additional selection in october while last year in may when i was not selcted after the HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED there was another sentence saying please keep ur confirmation number until October. and this year, cause i applied again (i didn't think i would be selected in 2013 :) i wasn't selected and that sentence doesn't exist which tells me that there probably won't be another draw and the numbers are really higher this year than those from last one or few more before that.
 
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