DV-2014 How it differs from previous years ? Plus few questions !

[ONEDAYIMAY]

HAS NOT BEEN SELECTED there was another sentence saying please keep ur confirmation number until October. and this year, cause i applied again (i didn't think i would be selected in 2013 i wasn't selected and that sentence doesn't exist which tells me that there probably won't be another draw and the numbers are really higher this year than those from last one or few more before that.

Exactly that's it probably it! This year there is no info about another selection in October like we had in DV2013.
With this being said, the truth is:
1- There probably won't be any extra SELECTED people this year.
2- This also might be the LAST YEAR of DV lottery.

I feel like it is getting harder and harder to keep alive the dream of living in the USA...working. studying...rising a family etc...It's a bit sad because I'm not a doctor or engineer but I'm a regular hard-working guy in my 20's with a Bachelor Degree. It's like I feel I could be good citizen, not an extra unnecessary weight to they US economy, yet I really don't know how and when am I gonna make it...
Living year after in year in hope of winning the lottery feels like wasting precious time of my life, because no matter what I do I always feels like I belong there...I've been there once and loved it, plus I have a few relatives there.
Congratulations for the winners I don't envy anyone just pray to be one of them before the Dv lottery ends... and to the rest of us Good luck what else can I say.....

 

[House409]

maybe they want to give a chance to high case numbers too maybe there are lots more holes in the numbers so they reveal the higher ones too. who knows. they know what they're doing. but i don't think that these numbers don't stand a chance at all. i believe they do, maybe not all of them but saying that all the high case numbers like above 30K won't go to an interview makes no sense cause there are numbers in the 50K so revealing plus around 20K numbers this year while they don't need them to proceed is an absurd. or that's how i get it.

Yes, they want to give a chance to everyone. They don't want to make people disappointed just for the fun of it. The only thing is that they seem to have selected +/- 25% more entrants this year, from what I read in the winner notification. But there is still the same maximum number of visas for the DV program, ie. 50,000. This has not increased by 25%... unfortunately. So, statistically speaking, there is a higher risk for high numbers of not being current and not having an interview this year. I fall in this category. But you are right, there might be more holes between consecutive winning numbers, for some reasons (more bogus entries that were identified after random selection, ...) and a 30k+ entry may have more chance this year than the previous years.

 

[macemk]

Exactly that's it probably it! This year there is no info about another selection in October like we had in DV2013.
With this being said, the truth is:
1- There probably won't be any extra SELECTED people this year.
2- This also might be the LAST YEAR of DV lottery.

I feel like it is getting harder and harder to keep alive the dream of living in the USA...working. studying...rising a family etc...It's a bit sad because I'm not a doctor or engineer but I'm a regular hard-working guy in my 20's with a Bachelor Degree. It's like I feel I could be good citizen, not an extra unnecessary weight to they US economy, yet I really don't know how and when am I gonna make it...
Living year after in year in hope of winning the lottery feels like wasting precious time of my life, because no matter what I do I always feels like I belong there...I've been there once and loved it, plus I have a few relatives there.
Congratulations for the winners I don't envy anyone just pray to be one of them before the Dv lottery ends... and to the rest of us Good luck what else can I say.....

yes they selected more people this year too and that's another reason why I believe they need more people to send their documents cause there were only around 100 000 last year. more than 105K actually. and that included all winners even those from october so maybe this year again they only notified some percent of it and the rest would later, but these high CNs and the fact that they don't tell us this time to keep our numbers until october say to me that another draw is unlikely to happen i would really like DOS to tell something about this officially so there won't be any confusion any more. I am very sorry for people like u or others that didn't have the chance to go and live there at this time, but don't lose hope maybe the dv won't be cancelled and maybe u will find another way to get there. i know how u feel cause i feel exactly like u about the states. i feel like i belong there too. i wish people could go anywhere in the world without problems but knowing there r so many evil people out there stuck in primitive times of human existence, these visa thing and background check is really necessary. but it definitely doesn't stop people from being illegal or having malicious intentions over a country, people or so on. cause those people seem to always find their way to get there somehow and attack. they seem to not even need a visa. and those u really want to go and live there and work hard and have a decent life are gonna stay home disappointed. life can be so unfair for some sometimes. so this dv thing is a good thing for those people. but then again it's just lottery. and if u don't win it then i wish u find a way to go there. where there is a will there is a way. sometimes these opportunities create on their own but sometimes it is us who do. so ur still young and ur find ur way some day

 

[macemk]

Yes, they want to give a chance to everyone. They don't want to make people disappointed just for the fun of it. The only thing is that they seem to have selected +/- 25% more entrants this year, from what I read in the winner notification. But there is still the same maximum number of visas for the DV program, ie. 50,000. This has not increased by 25%... unfortunately. So, statistically speaking, there is a higher risk for high numbers of not being current and not having an interview this year. I fall in this category. But you are right, there might be more holes between consecutive winning numbers, for some reasons (more bogus entries that were identified after random selection, ...) and a 30k+ entry may have more chance this year than the previous years.

Maybe it is so cause in the previous years many of those 100 000 didn't want to proceed with the application so this year they decided to select more. they wouldn't selected more than usual unless it was really necessary. and no, doing it just for fun isn't the reason

 

[ONEDAYIMAY]

yes they selected more people this year too and that's another reason why I believe they need more people to send their documents cause there were only around 100 000 last year. more than 105K actually. and that included all winners even those from october so maybe this year again they only notified some percent of it and the rest would later, but these high CNs and the fact that they don't tell us this time to keep our numbers until october say to me that another draw is unlikely to happen i would really like DOS to tell something about this officially so there won't be any confusion any more. I am very sorry for people like u or others that didn't have the chance to go and live there at this time, but don't lose hope maybe the dv won't be cancelled and maybe u will find another way to get there. i know how u feel cause i feel exactly like u about the states. i feel like i belong there too. i wish people could go anywhere in the world without problems but knowing there r so many evil people out there stuck in primitive times of human existence, these visa thing and background check is really necessary. but it definitely doesn't stop people from being illegal or having malicious intentions over a country, people or so on. cause those people seem to always find their way to get there somehow and attack. they seem to not even need a visa. and those u really want to go and live there and work hard and have a decent life are gonna stay home disappointed. life can be so unfair for some sometimes. so this dv thing is a good thing for those people. but then again it's just lottery. and if u don't win it then i wish u find a way to go there. where there is a will there is a way. sometimes these opportunities create on their own but sometimes it is us who do. so ur still young and ur find ur way some day

Thanks you very much for the positive message! I wish you and everyone will find their own way to reach this dream/desire of living in the USA we all share.
At the end of the day, you are right, it's just a lottery but for many of us it is the most realistic option available since none of them is easy.

 

[House409]

We all need to stay optimistic! For EU for instance, let's say there are 16,000 visas granted in average each year. Looking at the DOS stats, there are around 1.6 visa applicants for each entry (in average, DV entries seem to have 0.6 spouse+kids). This can obviously vary from one region to another, from one country to another, from one year to another. So, there are 16,000/1.6= 10,000 winning entries that get ultimately a visa. If we consider 20% (that's my wild guess - not sure there are any stats published on this) of interviewee that do not fulfill the requirements, that makes 12,000 winning entries who get an interview. Now, if we look at the various printouts made by Raevsky on other posts, it looks like there is something like at least 4 holes between consecutive winning numbers (Raev said some are not in the system though). This means that 1 out of 5 CN numbered case would get an interview. This means CN 60,000 (=5 * 12,000) has still a good chance.

Obviously, it is just speculation. We can think of making sensitivity cases by lowering or increasing the various factors/
percentages I used to see how this number varies.

 

[macemk]

Thanks you very much for the positive message! I wish you and everyone will find their own way to reach this dream/desire of living in the USA we all share.
At the end of the day, you are right, it's just a lottery but for many of us it is the most realistic option available since none of them is easy.

thank you too sweety! maybe u will get a work visa or fall in love with an american and marry

 

[melnewishy]

DV 2014 DSP122 and DS0230

Ladies and Gentleman,

i would like to check if submitting the initial forms (DSP 122 & DS0230) along with photos is enough via email or the original documents needs to be shipped to KCC too?

thank you

Mohamed

 

[House409]

This year is very much different because no hidden numbers are present, all winners are open, and that is why about half of winners will not get visas, unlike in recent years (in recent years about all open winners got visas).
So, if qualified candidates were more or less guaranteeded in previous lotteries (recent ones), this is not the case in DV-2014. Only about half of them will get interviews.

Not sure about half of them. If we consider that 50,000 visas are granted, and that each entry has +/- 1.6 visa applicant (principal applicant+spouse+kids), it means that they deliver visas to only 30k entries. That will be a 75% rejection rate from the initial 125,000 ... Are there any stats on how many interviewees get denied?

 

[raevsky]

Statistics for Europe only from another forum as of may 6th end of day:
In DV-2013 68 people indicated they won, excluding numbers without any meaningful digits (like xxxxxx) 60.
In DV-2014 125 people indicated they won, excluding numbers without any meaningful digits (like xxxxxx) 122. If we count only numbers up to 27000 (because in DV-2013 there were no numbers higher than that), we get 72 winners by May 6th.
So, still more than 60 in DV-2013. It probably means that consulates added an additional enchancement so that they expect 20% more applicants to get a denial (72 vs 60 is 20% incease, consistent with the fact that DOS increased the number of winners 20%). Otherwise, if the refusal rate is lower than those 20%, the boundary number between those who get an interview and those who do not, will be lower that 30700 because of those additional 20%

 

[raevsky]

Are there any stats on how many interviewees get denied?

Yes, stats is available. Europe refusal rate is 10.5% for entries, 7.7% for total amount of family members (including principal). Some consulates (like Kiev) have more (Kiev 22% for entries, 16.5% for family members); Moscow 26% admin processing (18% for families total)

For entries Africa 20.4% refusal rate, Asia 6.9% refusal rate (but 20% admin processing so far), Oceania 0.9% refusal rate, South America 2.3% refusal rate
For family members Africa 20% refusal rate, Asia 7.5% refusal rate (but 20% admin processing so far), Oceania 0.5% refusal rate, South America 2.4% refusal rate

 

[House409]

This makes sense. The higher cutoff numbers from one year to another can be due to:
- less registered entries are willing to proceed with their application (not likely)
- less registered entries are able to proceed with their application (not likely)
- more registered entries are bogus and only rejected after selection (maybe, but DOS has already good systems in place)
- more interviewees are denied (can very well be that applicant's financial health is more scrutinized nowadays)

Any other reasons?

 

[House409]

Thanks Raevsky for this feedback.
A few other questions: if we take EU as an example: +/- 16,000 visas are delivered each year. With 1.6 applicants (=principal+spouse+kids) per entry, this makes 10,000 successful entries. With a refusal rate of 10.5%, this would make around 11,150 entries who get an interviewee. If the highest CN number ever is in the 30ks and gets CURRENT at the end, would this mean 1 out of 2 CN numbers never gets notified? Are these the famous holes in the consecutive numbering? Are there people CURRENT that never get an interview? Or forever lost in the AP?

 

[House409]

Thanks Raevsky for this feedback.
A few other questions: if we take EU as an example: +/- 16,000 visas are delivered each year. With 1.6 applicants (=principal+spouse+kids) per entry, this makes 10,000 successful entries. With a refusal rate of 10.5%, this would make around 11,150 entries who get an interviewee. If the highest CN number ever is in the 30ks and gets CURRENT at the end, would this mean 1 out of 2 CN numbers never gets notified? Are these the famous holes in the consecutive numbering? Are there people CURRENT that never get an interview? Or forever lost in the AP?

Sorry, I meant 1 out of 3 CN numbers never gets notified (1 gets notified, 2 don't)...

 

[raevsky]

This makes sense. The higher cutoff numbers from one year to another can be due to:
- less registered entries are willing to proceed with their application (not likely)

Not likely

- less registered entries are able to proceed with their application (not likely)

Rather likely. They add an additional fraud check and expect 20% of applicants would fail (that is why I think they increates the number of winners 20%, from 105K to 125K)

- more registered entries are bogus and only rejected after selection (maybe, but DOS has already good systems in place)

That is the same thing. 20% more are expected to be eliminated at the consulates, be refused

- more interviewees are denied (can very well be that applicant's financial health is more scrutinized nowadays)

Yes, that is what I am saying.

And it has nothing to do with opening more numbers. Just EU numbers up to 31000 contain more 20% entries, and those 20% more entries are expected to be denied. If they are not denied, the boundary line will be lower than 31000.

At the same time numbers higher than 31000 EU will not get to the interview at all. In previous years those numbers were hidden, they did not appear. Of course, they also did not make it to the interview - in that semse nothing has changed.

 

[gokhan8282]

Well you have a long post in here and I will do my best to help you somehow
First of all be polite and do not use things like "guy souns like a dick". We are users of a polite forum and we will not use nor tolerate this kind of language so please behave or you will get reported.
Now lets see:

1. Every selectee will get an interview but there's a catch. If selected, you will have to do your best and reply to KCC with the filled documents in order for you to get the interview as fast as possible. They will move faster with the cut-offs if people will reply faster on their selectee notices. Not replying fast enough could result in a delay long enough to not get the visa if your case will be put under AP
2. I dont know or recall seen a selectee that didnt have the interview. The problem, as wrote above, is only with the AP (if your case will be put under AP)
3.Based on what I've wrote above, all selectees will get the interview but I am not really sure if its random or not. Though I guess is directly related to how fast you'll answer to KCC (once all CN becomes current)
So congrats on getting selected (I didnt have this opportunity- I am at my first application also). And best of luck with the interview and all! IMHO you will have no problem to get the GC if you will reply fast to KCC with the filled forms and you will give the documents they asked on the interview.
So take care and best of luck!

I have 2 questions about #1

You said "reply". Are they going to mail us the documents so we do a "reply" to it?

Or will be download the documents? If so; what is the link?

And one more question.

I am single and i have no kids. I dont plan to apply for my family members.

Will i send DS-230?

Or will i just send Form DSP-122?

It says that "The principal applicant and all family members applying for a diversity visa must submit both Part I and II. "

Any ideas?

 

[raevsky]

A few other questions: if we take EU as an example: +/- 16,000 visas are delivered each year. With 1.6 applicants (=principal+spouse+kids) per entry, this makes 10,000 successful entries.

My estimate for DV-2011 8,700

With a refusal rate of 10.5%, this would make around 11,150 entries who get an interviewee.

About 10K

If the highest CN number ever is in the 30ks and gets CURRENT at the end, would this mean 1 out of 3 CN numbers never gets notified?

No.
Numbering have holes. 33K numbers does not mean 33K entries. There are a lot of holes inside. About half of the numbers are empty, no entries for them.

Are these the famous holes in the consecutive numbering?

Yeap

Are there people CURRENT that never get an interview? Or forever lost in the AP?

Yes, at the end of the year there will be a lot of people who do not get interview even if the number was current. That was the case before (before 1999, when hidden numbers were introduced). For interview planning advantages it is convenient to have number current, so that to be able to schedule someone in the last minute, long after visa bulletin is prepared

 

[raevsky]

Will i send DS-230?

Or will i just send Form DSP-122?

It says that "The principal applicant and all family members applying for a diversity visa must submit both Part I and II. "

DSP-122 one per family. DS-230 one per person. We are talking about CP, not about AOS. AOS has a different set of documents.

 

[gokhan8282]

and what does AOS and CP mean?

PS : I have never got visa to any other country before.(inclusing U.S.)

 

[raevsky]

Ladies and Gentleman,

i would like to check if submitting the initial forms (DSP 122 & DS0230) along with photos is enough via email or the original documents needs to be shipped to KCC too?

thank you

Mohamed

How did you find out about submitting those 2 forms by email?
Which email did you use to submit them?