Agreed. I just wanted to point out that computing "odds" is not very useful because 1) we don't know all the facts, 2) it won't matter to individuals as EU1XX and EU60XXX will not have the same "odds". 25% is not a useful number for either of them.
Dv 2014 european winers here
- Thread starter ceskhermina
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Agreed. I just wanted to point out that computing "odds" is not very useful because 1) we don't know all the facts, 2) it won't matter to individuals as EU1XX and EU60XXX will not have the same "odds". 25% is not a useful number for either of them.
Yep. I hate statistics more than ever today
I guess it's worth to point out that there is a difference between statistics and odds (probability). There will not be another "lottery" among 125K, so there is no point in computing "odds". Everyone has their case number cast in stone and visas are given with respect to that order, skipping case numbers for different reasons (gaps, rejections, etc.) So "odds" does not really come into play at all.You should be good, with interview in late Spring/early Summer 14, if we look at recent years results.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
How to estimate your chances based on case number
Ok guys. A little statistical analysis should bring about some clarity to what every ones chances are based on case number rank
We know that about 15500 (31percent) visas are allocated to the euro area and last year 33000 won the lottery. Prior years indicate that the derivative factor may b 1,4 per winner as some winners have family. This would for 2013 have resulted in case numbers of around 46000 and will produce a total of around 11000 winners out of the 33000 selected in 2013.
This year a total of 20000 extra winners were selected of which I assume eu was allocated 31percent taking the u 2014 crowd up to 39000 winers and with the Same 1,4 factor this would produce about 55000 case numbers for 2014. Fits right?
Now the cut off depends on how many case numbers the process consumes per visa. This varies as some don't show up some don't do their paper work some die and some change plans.
So for the ongoing 2013 process we could assume that the DOS likes to process the same number of visa per month as their resources are static. This would in average mean 1291 visas per month. Thus the process should including June have produced 11625 visas. We know that June cut off is 31000. In other words the visa o case ratio is so far 11625/31000: 0,375. This means that it takes in average 2,667 case numbers to generate 1 visa so far. Thus it would take 41333 case numbers to fill the assumed eu quota. With a 5 percent s uncertainty the top range of case numbers getting visa would b between 39266 and 43399. This would fit well with case numbers to 2013 at max eu46000.
The problem is that last year in may the cut off number was 40000 meaning that in 2012 it took 40000 case numbers to produce 10333 visa assuming an equal monthly distribution. This men's the factor in 2012 was not 2,667 but 3.871!
So the bean counters analysing last year would conclude that it takes 15500x3.871 to fill the quota motivating them to produce towards 60000 Cn numbers for eu 2014. Probably a little less as they would have used an average of the whole yea that I don't have. But at least 55000 cad numbers newer know some hav at least 52xxx
So assuming 2o14 will proceed as 2013 those cn lower than 40000 stand a good probability of getting visa. If the tend looks more like 2012 then lower thn 50000 stand reasonably chance. Do the Mathis 2011 nd 2010 as well averagewith 2012 an 2013 and then you would have a good probability measure
Cheers
Ok guys. A little statistical analysis should bring about some clarity to what every ones chances are based on case number rank
We know that about 15500 (31percent) visas are allocated to the euro area and last year 33000 won the lottery. Prior years indicate that the derivative factor may b 1,4 per winner as some winners have family. This would for 2013 have resulted in case numbers of around 46000 and will produce a total of around 11000 winners out of the 33000 selected in 2013.
This year a total of 20000 extra winners were selected of which I assume eu was allocated 31percent taking the u 2014 crowd up to 39000 winers and with the Same 1,4 factor this would produce about 55000 case numbers for 2014. Fits right?
Now the cut off depends on how many case numbers the process consumes per visa. This varies as some don't show up some don't do their paper work some die and some change plans.
So for the ongoing 2013 process we could assume that the DOS likes to process the same number of visa per month as their resources are static. This would in average mean 1291 visas per month. Thus the process should including June have produced 11625 visas. We know that June cut off is 31000. In other words the visa o case ratio is so far 11625/31000: 0,375. This means that it takes in average 2,667 case numbers to generate 1 visa so far. Thus it would take 41333 case numbers to fill the assumed eu quota. With a 5 percent s uncertainty the top range of case numbers getting visa would b between 39266 and 43399. This would fit well with case numbers to 2013 at max eu46000.
The problem is that last year in may the cut off number was 40000 meaning that in 2012 it took 40000 case numbers to produce 10333 visa assuming an equal monthly distribution. This men's the factor in 2012 was not 2,667 but 3.871!
So the bean counters analysing last year would conclude that it takes 15500x3.871 to fill the quota motivating them to produce towards 60000 Cn numbers for eu 2014. Probably a little less as they would have used an average of the whole yea that I don't have. But at least 55000 cad numbers newer know some hav at least 52xxx
So assuming 2o14 will proceed as 2013 those cn lower than 40000 stand a good probability of getting visa. If the tend looks more like 2012 then lower thn 50000 stand reasonably chance. Do the Mathis 2011 nd 2010 as well averagewith 2012 an 2013 and then you would have a good probability measure
Cheers
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Average factor
Ok had a look at 2009 2010 and 2011 and the latest July 2013 the average factor based on my model above is 2.5
Indicating the average high cn number limit with a visa availability of 15500 is 38750. With a statistical uncertenty of 5 percent between 37000 and 40000
I have not included 2012 as it would seem as an outlier
Ok had a look at 2009 2010 and 2011 and the latest July 2013 the average factor based on my model above is 2.5
Indicating the average high cn number limit with a visa availability of 15500 is 38750. With a statistical uncertenty of 5 percent between 37000 and 40000
I have not included 2012 as it would seem as an outlier
Thanks EUcn for this analysis.
I agree there are usually around 33,000 winners for EU, and there are around 15,500 visas for this region. On the other hand, it looks the derivative factor is around 1,6 (in average 1 winner has 1,6 members in his/her household). This means 15,500/1,6 = 9,600 winning CN numbers get visas for themselves and their family members, if any.
What I understand is a winning CN case number includes only the principal applicant. The family members don't have a CN number. They are registered within the main applicant winning CN number. Just go under the Visa checking system https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx and check for instance 2013eu1. This guys has a spouse and 3 kids and got 5 visas in total. These 5 visas count towards the 50k tally, and the max number of visas allocated to the EU region, and to its own country.
Then, as you pointed out, the cut off depends on how many CN numbers consume visas. And if I look at past history, this is between 26,000 and 40,000, depending on various things such as disqualified winning CN numbers, people losing their numbers, people not interested after all, people denied after interview etc...
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Thank you for your reply. I assume the derivative factor may be lower for Europe than average. I am assuming there will be a gap in the selected winners cn number equal to derivatives. That's why I thought 1.4 might be a reasonable eu number otherwise with 1,6 it would take the cn numbers to 52xxx with 33000 winners
Yeah ,so i won the lottery ,but actually im not getting a visa. Because with my CN it wont ever happen. Even if somehow a miracle occurs , the hypothetical interview will be in a year or so and I'll probably forget about the whole thing. Have to find the person who convinced me to participate in this rigged lottery lol.
Who knows actually? You still have a chance. It is for sure much lower than Mr or Mrs 2014EU1, but as long as we don't see how things go next year, nobody can really tell.
Someone in a post said that DV winners should follow the principle of the 3 Ps: Preparation, Patience and Prayer. I found this funny... And so true....
Someone in a post said that DV winners should follow the principle of the 3 Ps: Preparation, Patience and Prayer. I found this funny... And so true....
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
Well July 2013 are calling 33000 below. Only two months left. Even I it goes current still should mean winners are invited to interview based on case numbers. I'm in 38xxx so I think I have a theoretical chance like late September 2014 and I will be tortured now an th next 14 months. Would have preferred no to "win" like that. Rather no win and have peac of mind th next year. Anyway my plan b I Penang in Malaysia or Manila. I was aiming at Miami anyway so I can just pretend.
Eucn
Registered Users (C)
In 2012 the eu share was 31percent of winners and visas. I just calculated 2013 and actually 35000 eu was selected which increased the eu share to 33percent. I think the admittance of Ukraine pushes the eu share up an I is also he largest winner group in fin o Uzbekistan. If this share holds through in 2014. There may be 16500 visas for eu. But that would mean around 41000 won this year.