Ok guys. A little statistical analysis should bring about some clarity to what every ones chances are based on case number rank
We know that about 15500 (31percent) visas are allocated to the euro area and last year 33000 won the lottery. Prior years indicate that the derivative factor may b 1,4 per winner as some winners have family. This would for 2013 have resulted in case numbers of around 46000 and will produce a total of around 11000 winners out of the 33000 selected in 2013.
This year a total of 20000 extra winners were selected of which I assume eu was allocated 31percent taking the u 2014 crowd up to 39000 winers and with the Same 1,4 factor this would produce about 55000 case numbers for 2014. Fits right?
Now the cut off depends on how many case numbers the process consumes per visa. This varies as some don't show up some don't do their paper work some die and some change plans.
So for the ongoing 2013 process we could assume that the DOS likes to process the same number of visa per month as their resources are static. This would in average mean 1291 visas per month. Thus the process should including June have produced 11625 visas. We know that June cut off is 31000. In other words the visa o case ratio is so far 11625/31000: 0,375. This means that it takes in average 2,667 case numbers to generate 1 visa so far. Thus it would take 41333 case numbers to fill the assumed eu quota. With a 5 percent s uncertainty the top range of case numbers getting visa would b between 39266 and 43399. This would fit well with case numbers to 2013 at max eu46000.
The problem is that last year in may the cut off number was 40000 meaning that in 2012 it took 40000 case numbers to produce 10333 visa assuming an equal monthly distribution. This men's the factor in 2012 was not 2,667 but 3.871!
So the bean counters analysing last year would conclude that it takes 15500x3.871 to fill the quota motivating them to produce towards 60000 Cn numbers for eu 2014. Probably a little less as they would have used an average of the whole yea that I don't have. But at least 55000 cad numbers newer know some hav at least 52xxx
So assuming 2o14 will proceed as 2013 those cn lower than 40000 stand a good probability of getting visa. If the tend looks more like 2012 then lower thn 50000 stand reasonably chance. Do the Mathis 2011 nd 2010 as well averagewith 2012 an 2013 and then you would have a good probability measure
Cheers
Thanks EUcn for this analysis.
I agree there are usually around 33,000 winners for EU, and there are around 15,500 visas for this region. On the other hand, it looks the derivative factor is around 1,6 (in average 1 winner has 1,6 members in his/her household). This means 15,500/1,6 = 9,600 winning CN numbers get visas for themselves and their family members, if any.
What I understand is a winning CN case number includes only the principal applicant. The family members don't have a CN number. They are registered within the main applicant winning CN number. Just go under the Visa checking system
https://ceac.state.gov/CEACStatTracker/Status.aspx and check for instance 2013eu1. This guys has a spouse and 3 kids and got 5 visas in total. These 5 visas count towards the 50k tally, and the max number of visas allocated to the EU region, and to its own country.
Then, as you pointed out, the cut off depends on how many CN numbers consume visas. And if I look at past history, this is between 26,000 and 40,000, depending on various things such as disqualified winning CN numbers, people losing their numbers, people not interested after all, people denied after interview etc...