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Dv 2014 european winers here

britsimon said:
Yep agreed. The holes are somewhat predictable. For EU there are about 46k selectees and numbers go up to "the high 50's". The 46k includes derivatives, so you could take the max case number and say the holes are around 20% (if you include derivatives) or around 60% of the actual case numbers (if you ignore derivatives). So, a move of 10,000 numbers will only yield 4000 interviews and if they were ALL sucessful that would produce about 8k visas. However, based on the 2013 CEAC data, Refused, AP and abandoned cases account for over 25% of cases - so that means 10,000 would yield no more than 6,000 visas max (probably more like 5,000). Countries that hit limits help other countries so the first 10k would have a higher yield than the last 10k.

SO - EU could get 18-20k of the visas (especially if NACARA is not using many of the 5k), and that would take more than 40k case numbers. I just can't imagine cases over 50k having much chance at all and cases in the 40's are risky, but really, I can't imagine cases in the 30's missing out.
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Exellent
Can u pls provide me with AF data numbers , so that I can try to apply ur formula on it?
 
britsimon said:
Is there really any point??

Basically he is saying some is right, some is incorrect and he provided proof (that didn't prove anything new) and anything that Raevsky says is complete BS. Oh yeah and we should all believe Sloner because he is very accurate and never makes silly mistakes or assumptions. Well, that is if you forget the whole 2012 debacle. And the constant wittering about new software. And the refusal to consider the 140k versus 105k impact. And.... well you know - you get the point....
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Lol he's for ever stuck with his software theory and dv12.
Sloner please stratch your words into sentences, so that will get to ur sense thanks.
 
vladek15425 said:
Exellent
Can u pls provide me with AF data numbers , so that I can try to apply ur formula on it?
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There are 62k selectees (including derivatives). The derivatives per selectee number is just under 1. The high case number is 116,000. In other words the holes are MASSIVE in AF region. Also the visa not issued rate in AF is higher than EU - around 40%.

AF should end up with around 23/24k visas.
 
I like how you guys get into these numerical battles, when you know for sure that no one knows the truth. It is definitely an engaging read and a way of killing time, but seriously, let's talk about something else. Having read at least 30 posts with formulas and paragraphs full of explanations, I'm starting to have a nosebleed (not really).

We should rather speculate what the cutoff numbers will be for the month of February. Whoever is the closest to the actual number gets a cookie. BAM.

I think the cutoff will go up to 17,100 :D
 
lookmanohands said:
I like how you guys get into these numerical battles, when you know for sure that no one knows the truth. It is definitely an engaging read and a way of killing time, but seriously, let's talk about something else. Having read at least 30 posts with formulas and paragraphs full of explanations, I'm starting to have a nosebleed (not really).

We should rather speculate what the cutoff numbers will be for the month of February. Whoever is the closest to the actual number gets a cookie. BAM.

I think the cutoff will go up to 17,100 :D
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I agree with you on the speculation part...maybe a separate thread for that.

Do you mean cutoff for March perhaps and therefore the VB Feb bulletin?
As the number for Feb (as issued in upcoming Jan bulletin) is already known to some here...EUROPE 16,700.
 
fanarin said:
First of all welcome back, bro.

Secondly, my CN number is EU 22xxx. Still no NL. Started to freak out.

How does the process continue ?
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Evening;
Ur # has not become current yet, u will be current hopefully march or april.
When ur # becomes current u will receive ur 2 notification letter 4 weeks before ur interview +-.
 
So...EU 16700...just released
Hmm,I can not wait anymore! I struggled to find information on how to buy a company without losing my chance DV. Any idea?:(
 
990 said:
how was it? u receive ur second letter 4 weeks before ur interview? really?
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Yes it is correct - it could be as much as 6 ot 7 weeks before the interview - or perhaps just 4 weeks. The 2NL is actually an email - and the email tells you to check the Status check website where you saw your selected letter. There you will then see the appointment details.
 
mickyro1 said:
So...EU 16700...just released
Hmm,I can not wait anymore! I struggled to find information on how to buy a company without losing my chance DV. Any idea?:(
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Foreign investors can buy a business in the US if they invest $1Million (reduced to $500k in some areas of the States). It is possible but it won't happen in a couple of months. Your number is high, and therefore in the risky range, so it is probably good to have a backup plan - but be advised, nothing is straightforward...
 
if I write to the consulate that I want to buy a company it would be possible to lose my DV chance? Because we understand that it is difficult to ask E2 if you already chosen DV.I am trying to find a solution for weeks,if my husband does not buy this company(until the end of January)and next year we waiting in vain?
HELP,please help!
 
mickyro1 said:
if I write to the consulate that I want to buy a company it would be possible to lose my DV chance? Because we understand that it is difficult to ask E2 if you already chosen DV.I am trying to find a solution for weeks,if my husband does not buy this company(until the end of January)and next year we waiting in vain?
HELP,please help!
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No you cannot jeopardise your DV chance - there is no requirement in the DV process that says you cannot be seeking or on some other type of visa - in fact there is a special process (adjustment of status or AOS) that allows exactly that, and there are DV selectees going through AOS at the moment.

However, the DV lottery application MAY impact the E-2. The E-2 visa is not a dual intent visa. So at the time you start the E-2 process you should not have already shown intent to immigrate to the US. Your DV application does indeed show immigrant intent - not at the point you enter the lottery but at the point you submitted the 122/230 forms after selection. This is EXACTLy the scenario that Raevsky always warned about - that submitting the 122/230 forms has impact.

Now, some people have managed to get temporary visas while a DV application is in process (SusieQQQ did) BUT those are the visitor visas (like B1/B2) which are much less of an issue as long as you can show ties back to your home country.

So - you need to tread carefully. I assume you have a lawyer working on the E-2 side - if not, I suggest you speak to one and check what he/she thinks about the fact that you have shown immigrant intent and the impact on a possible E-2 application.
 
mickyro1 said:
if I write to the consulate that I want to buy a company it would be possible to lose my DV chance? Because we understand that it is difficult to ask E2 if you already chosen DV.I am trying to find a solution for weeks,if my husband does not buy this company(until the end of January)and next year we waiting in vain?
HELP,please help!
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If going down the investor route via an E2 is a financially viable option for you, I would recommend you go down that path.
As honestly I can't see EU49k to get to interview stage...we are EU35k and think we are borderline!
So it is great news that you seem to be having a plan on how to get your foot into the US via a business investment.
Just see the DV as a (remote) chance to rid yourselves of any future requirements that you would have while maintaining E2 status (i.e. proving that your business is successful and renewing visa every 5 years, etc).
 
OnTheGo said:
If going down the investor route via an E2 is a financially viable option for you, I would recommend you go down that path.
As honestly I can't see EU49k to get to interview stage...we are EU35k and think we are borderline!
So it is great news that you seem to be having a plan on how to get your foot into the US via a business investment.
Just see the DV as a (remote) chance to rid yourselves of any future requirements that you would have while maintaining E2 status (i.e. proving that your business is successful and renewing visa every 5 years, etc).
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Wise words - I would agree that 49k is too risky. However, the DV application may have messed the E-2 application up - so tread carefully.
 
britsimon said:
Wise words - I would agree that 49k is too risky. However, the DV application may have messed the E-2 application up - so tread carefully.
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Yeah, I saw your reply after I submitted mine..lol.
Welcome back to the forum, mate! How did that come about, someone pressed the wrong button, or was someone trying to prevent you from hitting your 2000th post...hahahahaha ;)
 
OnTheGo said:
Yeah, I saw your reply after I submitted mine..lol.
Welcome back to the forum, mate! How did that come about, someone pressed the wrong button, or was someone trying to prevent you from hitting your 2000th post...hahahahaha ;)
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It is possible that I was posting too often so a robot decided I must be spamming the forum. Funny.
 
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