Dv 2014 european winers here
- Thread starter ceskhermina
- Start date
Kayend
Active Member
If you refer to Bangladesh interview cancellation case in year 2012, it could be due to 5 years 50k visa limit reached for all visa. If you look at dv12 statistic, Bangladesh only have 200+ visa issued but normally it has 2-3k and in year 2013 Bangladesh is out for DV. When I country not eligible for DV is because 50k limit reached for all visa. So this Bangladesh case could be cause by the 50k limit in 5 years time for all visas.
Kayend
Active Member
This is interesting. One point I get from this is that AP cases don't withhold the visa. Which mean if your case is under AP the visa allotment will return back to DOS for others application and when you AP is clear you will get another allotment from the regional pool again. So if this is the case, looking at dv13 the return rate could be as high as 50% each months.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
There is a system of quota by region. So USCIS controls the pace of the overall process to meet the quotas but the quota are not published publicly.
thanks
well, i know that
but both of them belongs to a so-called low-admission regions .total number of their immigrants doesn't exceed 1/6 of world wide issued immigrants visas
so , i have a very simple explanation, EU got less visas ,just because there was nobody else to apply for visa at the end of summer...
Do you know or heard of somebody selected from EU , who didn't get his visa because of EU quota was exceeded in this past years?
well, i know that
but both of them belongs to a so-called low-admission regions .total number of their immigrants doesn't exceed 1/6 of world wide issued immigrants visas
so , i have a very simple explanation, EU got less visas ,just because there was nobody else to apply for visa at the end of summer...
Do you know or heard of somebody selected from EU , who didn't get his visa because of EU quota was exceeded in this past years?
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
Well I'm not sure what you are trying to say - but what I am trying to say is that the amount of visas that each region receives is pre-allocated. You seem to be saying that demand is exhausted but that is only as true as it is for any region and that is why USCIS increased the global selectees this year...
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Well, EU also got less visas because they had less selectees in the first place. Around 50% of selectees come from Africa vs about 30% from Europe, from what I understand.
As an aside it looks like Raevsky has been contributing to the wiki article...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Haha - yes I recognize some of that writing style (and spreadsheets)
i'm trying to say
EU takes less visa then AF , why ? because of it's quota or because EU hadn't enough case numbers ?
And why, for example, EU cannot take 20k visas in dv2014 ? somebody can prove that EU has limit in 15-16k?
you are right , USCIS increased the global selectees this year, but by now according to cut-offs EU is getting more interviews then AF or AS , if you compare their number of selectees and case numbers. so if cut-offs will continue this pace , what may interfere EU to take 20K visas ?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
As I said the quota themselves were not published by the fact that there is a predetermined quota is established.
I agree EU seems to be going faster. I think that may be to do with a change of quota (which I believe also happened for OC) OR it may just be that the relative ease of EU cases versus AF cases is playing in to their calculations. We won't really know for a few months yet...
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I don't understand the bit I've bolded above. AF Dec cutoff is 17800 vs EU 12500, so EU hasn't been getting more interviews.
As to what may prevent them reaching 20000 - if global quota of 50000 is exhausted first.
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well
1)i will explain. the disproportion between AF real winners and case numbers is almost twice . 60k winners have almost 120 numbers
while EU has 54K (or 60k) numbers with 46K winners
that means AF 18k cases have less real winners then 12K cases of EU. and real people goes for interview but not case numbers.
2) exhausted global quota will stop all regions , not only EU
so , my idea is very simple
in previous years there wasn't enough numbers from EU , thats why EU was taking just 14-16K visas ,and couldn't fill its quota.
This year situation is different , EU seems have enough winners , and EU has all ability to take 20000K visas .
If you noticed, EU and AF usually taking 80% of global visas , so if they will not stop EU by cut-offs , EU may take its portion fully . note ,that 20K visas are more then 45K case numbers for EU , if you look at statistic
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SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
I'm still not quite following your argument, I understand the proportions are different but you were asking about the actual number of winners and 60000 is still more than 46000. So yes everyone will stop when the quota is reached, but there will still be more AF winners. Also the wiki article has % of visas vs selectees per regions and it's not massively different between the regions, iirc 46% for Africa vs 50% for Europe. I think it's certainly possible judging by VB so far Europe will get more visas than last year but Africa will still get more than Europe.
ok ,
first of all if we look at statistic of 2003-2004 , we could see that having more winners is not guarantee to have more visas
2003
AF 39138 win - 19227 visas
EU 29226 win - 22321 visas
2004
AF 50547 win - 17146 visas
EU 35868 win - 21721 visas
Then , AF has 60K winners now, and EU has 46K winners now , of course there is no way that all of them 106K will get their visas , at least because of regional and global quotas .
AF has 30% more winners then EU , it is thrue to predict that , to get more visas then EU with same 30% proportion AF must have at least 30% faster cut-off , right?
what is 30% faster cut-off in this case?
if AF has 120numbers with 60winners , that means every 1 winner = 2 cases
while EU with 46win have 55k(may be 59k) numbers , which means 1winner = 1.2(1.3) winner. lets take 1.25 as middle.
December cut-off for EU is 12500K , yes ? If we think AF must get 30% more visas due to its more 30% winners , then AF must be faster at 30% then EU with its 12500K ,
lets calculate now EU 12500/1,25= 10000 real winners.
10000*30% = 13000 , AF must have 13000 real winners to be faster then EU at 30%
13000*2 = 26000 cases
to be faster at 30% then EU , AF must have 26000 cut-off in december .
otherwise if EU will keep its pace of cut-offs not slower then AF in twice -it will get at least same qtty of visa compair to Africa.
of course this calculations are estimated , and exact first 12500 may have more or less winners then 10K, but next portion of cut-off will correct it and finaly we will get 1win = 1.25 case.
look once more at statistics for 2003-2004
i guess in this dv2014 EU has all chances to grab 40% of global quota , because it has enough winners to do it .
ps.sorry for my french
ps2.
i forgot to mention , that AF has special lower cut-offs for several countries, and it makes number of real winners in first 18k cut-off even less then 18K/2
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yes , the exact quotas for regions never been published. But there is a congressionally approved formula they used to establish this quotas, and main principles of this formula are known.
there are 6 regions which divided into low-admission and high-admission regions .
"(I) each region (each in this paragraph referred to as a 'high-admission region') for which the total of the numbers determined under subparagraph (A) for states in the region is greater than 1/6 of the total of all such numbers, and
"(II) each other region (each in this paragraph referred to as a 'low-admission region'); [/FONT]
"(A) Determination of preference immigration.--The Attorney General shall determine for the most recent previous 5-fiscal-year period for which data are available, the total number of aliens who are natives of each foreign state and who (i) were admitted or otherwise provided lawful permanent resident status (other than under this subsection) and (ii) were subjectto the numerical limitations of section 201(a) (other than paragraph (3) thereof) or who were admitted or otherwise provided lawful permanent resi dent status as an immediate relative or other alien described in section 201(b)(2).
if you see the immigration statistic , EU and AF are certainly among low-admission regions , they never had together more then 100k immigrants(DV visas excluded by law) per year , while ASIA and NA have around 150-200K each per year.
And even if you compare EU and AF , you can see, that in past 5 years EU had less immigrants then AF by total numbers of them , or even if we compare population of this regions with number of immigrants, EU again will be less.
So , i cannot see the reason , why EU should have less quota and get less visas then AF in dv2014?
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SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
ok ,
first of all if we look at statistic of 2003-2004 , we could see that having more winners is not guarantee to have more visas
2003
AF 39138 win - 19227 visas
EU 29226 win - 22321 visas
2004
AF 50547 win - 17146 visas
EU 35868 win - 21721 visas
Then , AF has 60K winners now, and EU has 46K winners now , of course there is no way that all of them 106K will get their visas , at least because of regional and global quotas .
AF has 30% more winners then EU , it is thrue to predict that , to get more visas then EU with same 30% proportion AF must have at least 30% faster cut-off , right?
what is 30% faster cut-off in this case?
if AF has 120numbers with 60winners , that means every 1 winner = 2 cases
while EU with 46win have 55k(may be 59k) numbers , which means 1winner = 1.2(1.3) winner. lets take 1.25 as middle.
December cut-off for EU is 12500K , yes ? If we think AF must get 30% more visas due to its more 30% winners , then AF must be faster at 30% then EU with its 12500K ,
lets calculate now EU 12500/1,25= 10000 real winners.
10000*30% = 13000 , AF must have 13000 real winners to be faster then EU at 30%
13000*2 = 26000 cases
to be faster at 30% then EU , AF must have 26000 cut-off in december .
otherwise if EU will keep its pace of cut-offs not slower then AF in twice -it will get at least same qtty of visa compair to Africa.
of course this calculations are estimated , and exact first 12500 may have more or less winners then 10K, but next portion of cut-off will correct it and finaly we will get 1win = 1.25 case.
look once more at statistics for 2003-2004
i guess in this dv2014 EU has all chances to grab 40% of global quota , because it has enough winners to do it .
ps.sorry for my french
ps2.
i forgot to mention , that AF has special lower cut-offs for several countries, and it makes number of real winners in first 18k cut-off even less then 18K/2
There's a lot of speculation/assumptions in your answer.
The first obvious objection is that none of this is different to before so why should the outcome be?
But also there is faulty logic in your last sentence - as the countries with lower cut-offs in AF are those with the high rejection rates, so the success rate of the remainder (or what you call real winners) will be higher, not lower. (Unless I misunderstood what you were trying to say.)