I don't know...but just in case
Well, now that my I-140 has been approved, my I-485 is getting my undivided attention. Either I will be a permanent resident in the next 30 days or I will be joining the name check saga...
So I have started doing my research and ran into a document directed at Senator Arlen Spector, Chairman of Judiciary. It is a Q&A from the FBI with some interesting stats.
You can find the document here:
http://www.ala.org/ala/washoff/WOissues/civilliberties/theusapatriotact/Muellerresponses050206.pdf
The document is dated November 30, 2006 but the body of the letter suggests info was current as of July 2006.
Read page 54 - Question 53. A lot of the same, but some new insights into actions potentially being taken by the FBI to deal with the backlog.
Read page 123. Section Immigration and Background Checks. This section gets a bit more interesting. Questions 132, 133, 134, 135
Total USCIS Name Checks by # of days pending:
0-30: 36888
31-60: 45026
61-90: 31746
91-120: 13934
121-364: 68411
365+: 106011
Total: 302016
For AOS only:
0-30: 16665
31-60: 17427
61-90: 14413
91-120: 5467
120-364: 31063
365+: 52073
Total:137108
Also states that NNCP does not track country of origin.
Now, here are some probabilities and I know the 'math' is not entirely accurate but go with it for a moment.
USCIS sends the FBI 3,500,000 name checks a year. If we take the total USCIS numbers above you have:
9 out of 100 chances of being stuck for at least ~30 days
8 out of 100 chances of being stuck for at least ~60 days
6 out of 100 chances of being stuck for at least ~90 days
5 out of 100 chances of being stuck for upto a year
3 out of 100 chances of being stuck for more than 1 year.
If you look at the trends above, if you are stuck for 30 days, you are bound to be stuck for 60 days. Then you have a small chance of getting out before completing 90 days. Once you pass that threshold you have a good chance of escaping and not going beyond.
Can't say anything beyond that because the ranges get broader...
I know, some of you will disagree based on the high percentage of people stuck in name check...I am looking at the same data you are...take it for what is worth.
So when are you officially stuck in name check? I think if you are stuck for more than 90 days, then the odds of being there for a longer period of time exists.
I have not been able to figure out when USCIS requests the FBI name check. I read in a 'manual' that the CLAIMS3 system send the request upon receipt. Others tend to think that it is soon after receipt and others that it is done along with FP.
So based on that, I would say that - to be 'safe' - wait 90 days after FP and check for name check status. If you are in fact told you are stuck then it is likely that it will be a while.
Finally, based on some stats that I found, generally speaking 'records' tend to have about ~70% male records vs. ~30% female records. This essentially means women are less likely to get stuck in name check than men (THIS IS DEFINITELY MY OPINION, AND IT IS WORTH JUST THAT). So if you are told that both you and your spouse are still awaiting name check clearance, either you are not getting complete information or you are one unlucky couple.
Good luck everyone...