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ceac updated

According to Raevsky's schedule, we have to consider AP , Ready+ Transit when calculating the number of Visas issued since majority of them will be issued in near future??? so after considering that factor it will be about more or less 18k for the 1st 3 months right?
 
So Africa and EU already have nearly 3000 visas issued each.

AF have achieved 2897 visas issued from 1500 rows with 5500 people sitting on READY status from 3000 rows (i.e. awaiting interview in Jan and Feb or possible no shows). That is out of the first 21750 CNs, so roughly 20% through the selectees. Out of the 5500 we could assume that at least 2000 will get visas, so it is very clear that this is not all all like the 2012 numbers - the first 21.75k will probably end up with a yield as many as 6k visas (including those not yet responded and aos) It is VERY clear proof (if anyone still needed) that Sloners theories are incorrect. That isn't a surprise to most of us I am sure, but it also is a sad confirmation of the reality for high CNs.

Country cutoffs should mean slightly lower yields from higher ranges, but even so, numbers for AF higher than 80/90k are very much in the risky zone.
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go to school and teach math. Count how many rows in Africa. Then tell me the results. But only after schooling.
Do not believe everything that read on the Internet.
 
Sloner said:
go to school and teach math. Count how many rows in Africa. Then tell me the results. But only after schooling.
Do not believe everything that read on the Internet.
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Sloner - welcome! I was wondering when you would show up!

OK I went to school and taught math. Then I counted the rows. The only straw I can imagine you are clutching to is the lower number of rows from 2014 than appeared for the same range in 2013. That could indicate more holes, or it could indicate less people have returned their forms so far. Some of those might still return their forms. The problem is that already from the people that have replied there are enough visas going to be issued to reach your AF quota estimates by about CN 60k. My quota estimate for AF is higher, but still things start to look risky past 80/90k.

So am I missing your point? Sorry I only teach elementary schoolkids - please tell.
 
Nerandima said:
According to Raevsky's schedule, we have to consider AP , Ready+ Transit when calculating the number of Visas issued since majority of them will be issued in near future??? so after considering that factor it will be about more or less 18k for the 1st 3 months right?
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Yes many of the ready and AP cases will convert to other status types. Remember, this swipe of data does not yet show any results from January or February interviews, so the ready and AP cases will come in to play - but if you think that way, then you are considering 5 months of interviews....
 
dolopar said:
Has ever been NACARA remaining visas distributed to other region in the past?
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We don't know for sure. There have been several years that exceed the 50k limit by amounts that cannot be explained as newborns/marriages so my guess is that is coming from the NACARA allowance.
 
The problem is that already from the people that have replied there are enough visas going to be issued to reach your AF quota estimates by about CN 60k. My quota estimate for AF is higher, but still things start to look risky past 80/90k.
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You do not teach math. By my last count Africa receive no more than 17,000 visas. I'm sorry, but it is. Thanks for the information Raevsky. I could not prove to you without CEAC.
 
Sloner said:
You do not teach math. By my last count Africa receive no more than 17,000 visas. I'm sorry, but it is. Thanks for the information Raevsky. I could not prove to you without CEAC.
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OK so we have to wait until AF goes over 17k visas before you admit your error.
 
When I look at the number of visa issued seems very low and ''small'' and a person get to think that if it
Will carry on this way than there is hope for nearly everybody ! But than looking at the number of the APs and readys makes me think that at least half of it will become issued soon ! So end of the day it seems to me like the DV lottery is running now on the normal rate and it quotas are getting filled up slowly but surely. If we take a deep look at all the holes and the high number of readys which is I'm sure half of give ups,... We will click that if they had to stick to same number of 105000 selectees they would sit with visas wasted, now they made sure to take enough to cover all the expected and the unexpected.....
 
britsimon said:
OK so we have to wait until AF goes over 17k visas before you admit your error.
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Dear Simon,

Could you please comment my calculations. According to the CEAC data, the Issued vizas for 2013 and 2014 are:

2013 2014
AFRICA 7476 2897
EUROPE 4490 2957
ASIA 1686 1195
SA 413 232
OC 205 88
NA 6 0

So if we calculate the quotas by the upper data, we have:

2013 2014
AFRICA 52.37% 39.31%
EUROPE 31.45% 40.12%
ASIA 11.81% 16.22%
SA 2.89% 3.15%
OC 1.44% 1.19%
NA 0.04% 0%

My opinion is that for DV2014 the quotas for Europe and Asia will be much higher than DV2013, and that's the reason for so big increase in winners from these regions. The increase for Africa's winners is only 18%.
 
OK so we have to wait until AF goes over 17k visas before you admit your error.
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long wait. until September 2014. If exceeds, it is not much.

vladek15425, Look at the lines. In Africa, there are very few. It's obvious.
 
britsimon said:
We were discussing this earlier in the thread. The 2013 data is missing some data - Raevsky calls it the Sloner effect. It seems they were piloting something about the CEAC data last year that meant it was not complete.

Regarding the APs I've emailed Raevsky because I noticed there are a number of cases noted as AP where the interviews haven't taken place yet. So the AP rate is questionable but the refusal rate seems accurate to me.
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Is it really possible for one to be on AP when interview has not taken place?i doubt it,their could be error on the data pasted.
 
My opinion is that for DV2014 the quotas for Europe and Asia will be much higher than DV2013, and that's the reason for so big increase in winners from these regions. The increase for Africa's winners is only 18%.
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Yes, you're right. I said about it back in August. But some continue to deny it.
Why, I do not understand. Probably afraid of something.
 
denitsa_zz said:
Dear Simon,

Could you please comment my calculations. According to the CEAC data, the Issued vizas for 2013 and 2014 are:

2013 2014
AFRICA 7476 2897
EUROPE 4490 2957
ASIA 1686 1195
SA 413 232
OC 205 88
NA 6 0

So if we calculate the quotas by the upper data, we have:

2013 2014
AFRICA 52.37% 39.31%
EUROPE 31.45% 40.12%
ASIA 11.81% 16.22%
SA 2.89% 3.15%
OC 1.44% 1.19%
NA 0.04% 0%

My opinion is that for DV2014 the quotas for Europe and Asia will be much higher than DV2013, and that's the reason for so big increase in winners from these regions. The increase for Africa's winners is only 18%.
Click to expand...

Remember the succes rate for dv 13 is final ! The dv 14 succes rate will still go up since lot of readys and the AP's will become issued ...
 
denitsa_zz said:
Dear Simon,

Could you please comment my calculations. According to the CEAC data, the Issued vizas for 2013 and 2014 are:

2013 2014
AFRICA 7476 2897
EUROPE 4490 2957
ASIA 1686 1195
SA 413 232
OC 205 88
NA 6 0

So if we calculate the quotas by the upper data, we have:

2013 2014
AFRICA 52.37% 39.31%
EUROPE 31.45% 40.12%
ASIA 11.81% 16.22%
SA 2.89% 3.15%
OC 1.44% 1.19%
NA 0.04% 0%

My opinion is that for DV2014 the quotas for Europe and Asia will be much higher than DV2013, and that's the reason for so big increase in winners from these regions. The increase for Africa's winners is only 18%.
Click to expand...

The thing is the progress according to the VBs is not equal acroos the regions. EU is further ahead than other regions - I have been describing that as being over a month ahead bcause of a comparison to DV2013 progress. You can see what I mean at this link http://www.dv-info.site40.net/

AF is behind the same point in DV2013. I wouldn't be surprised to see it catch up with EU a little although I do think that EU cases should be, on average, easier than AF and AS cases so EU may stay in the lead for some months to come.
 
samolaniyi said:
Is it really possible for one to be on AP when interview has not taken place?i doubt it,their could be error on the data pasted.
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It isn't possible as far as I know UNLESS Moscow fraud department has identified these cases as being suspicious in some way, perhaps based on red flags from KCC. However it seems to be Moscow specific, so I think it is more just a case of Russian brain freeze. .
 
It isn't possible as far as I know UNLESS Moscow fraud department has identified these cases as being suspicious in some way, perhaps based on red flags from KCC. However it seems to be Moscow specific, so I think it is more just a case of Russian brain freeze. .
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In Moscow, everything is fine, Russian, unlike Africa and Ukraine less cheating. England does not play the lottery, so I can not say about it.
 
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