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CEAC data update

n.n. said:
The density has increased, it's correct, but I think that there is some small mistake in your calculations. You are comparing different data.
You are comparing total cases of dv2014 wih only invited to co ones in 2015. It would be more correct to take final ceac for 2014 and compare invited family members to CN count in both cases.

Then it makes 24,570 (family members) / 11,064 = 2.22 (data taken from final dv 2014 ceac)

So yes, there is a density increase, but it is from 2.22 to 2.25 but not from 2.09 to 2.25 as you mention imho.
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you should not compared this family members to CNs ratio for the invited people, bu for the issued visas. For the issued visas for dv 2014 it was 2.17 and as of June 4 CEAC data it is 2.18 for EU. So no big difference..
 
Candeu said:
you should not compared this family members to CNs ratio for the invited people, bu for the issued visas. For the issued visas for dv 2014 it was 2.17 and as of June 4 CEAC data it is 2.18 for EU. So no big difference..
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I think I should. I also calculated how many of invited people received visas. It's about 76%

But I agree. There is no big difference if you compare year to year using ceac.
 
Britsimon said:
Something is wrong with your math.

End of May is just over 11k.
June will produce 2k plus, and July will produce under 2k. So - the 15k is "pre-programmed" from numbers up to 35700 - and AoS is on top of that number (call that a round 1000). EU quota could be as high as 20k (at 53k global), but an underfilling of AF could impact that - so we might only have 19500. So - the most visas we could see is 4000, probably 3500. Some of those will go to backlog cases and completing AP cases. So - I think EU will see some VB increase in both the last VBs, but I would not be surprised to see a small jump for the final VB (September interviews).

EU density and response rate is relatively low - so 500 visas here or there is there can mean 1000-1500 case numbers. So - it is hard to be precise.... it is going to be a nervous wait until July for the numbers in the 40+ range.
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why you especially mentioned it is going to be a nervous wait for 40+, not 38+ or 39+ for example, which are at the lowest end of your predictions?
 
Brit -
thank you for all you doing, regards I-134
I got these forms(original) in addition to 1040 taxes copy, but without W-2
is W-2 mandatory ? or 1040 is enough ?

Thanks.
 
alaayameen said:
the person who filled me the I-134 she is a nursing manager, and her spouse he is working on Mall, they filled me the forms together.

so in this case what are forms required ?
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Did the person include their government issued ID such as GC or US passport?
 
How are the regions doing?

uc

I used averaged historical CP split factors to get a CEAC quota.
 
DV4ROGER said:
How are the regions doing?

uc

I used averaged historical CP split factors to get a CEAC quota.
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Dear Roger, I would like to ask you a question if you don't mind.
I know that you presented very accurate numbers for last year's quotas, so my question is there any indication of a decreased quota for Asia this year? The disappointing VB progress is making me wonder, and me and a bunch of high ROA CNs are worried about this. Thanks!
 
DV4ROGER said:
How are the regions doing?

uc

I used averaged historical CP split factors to get a CEAC quota.
Click to expand...


YUp. AS is about where they should be because of Iran. AF/EU is more revealing of the no show issue and (IMHO) evidence of a very small/no increase coming for EU in the next VB. I would expect to see a final "super month" for AF (visas issuances of at least 50% more than normal monthly pace), but the gap you illustrate is MORE than 1 month difference between the two regions. So - it seems likely they put the hammer down on AF in this last VB in order to address the no shows a bit, but even with some catchup in August, AF will still need a month more than EU...
 
Actually I produced the table as a contribution to your discussion in the other thread. No, the quota for Asia is 16.1 percent, i.e. 8350-8675 visas depending on the global quota.
NaraLB said:
Dear Roger, I would like to ask you a question if you don't mind.
I know that you presented very accurate numbers for last year's quotas, so my question is there any indication of a decreased quota for Asia this year? The disappointing VB progress is making me wonder, and me and a bunch of high ROA CNs are worried about this. Thanks!
Click to expand...
 
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