Excuse me but do not realize where
CEAC data update
- Thread starter Britsimon
- Start date
Britsimon
Super Moderator
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LazyDoggie
Active Member
Hi Simon,
What does status "at NVC" mean?
What does status "at NVC" mean?
Sensei-san
Active Member
This is the default status, it changes if a case gets scheduled with an embassy, if ever.
freemanrnd
New Member
when next ceac data?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yes - the backlog has continued. Given that we are now seeing some March submissions get scheduled we will soon get down to the low point of the backlog impact on monthly VB releases. IT will never fully go away, but at least the impact will be reduced.
freemanrnd
New Member
where is data((
Does this mean that we can expect bigger jump on next visa bulletin?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
No, the opposite. Backlog cases take interview slots and mean the monthly target can be reached without large VB jumps.
EU had the brakes applied last month - so that was one of these three reasons (in order of liklihood):-
1) KCC pulling back on the pace (by reducing interviews) as they had for May interviews to ensure the visas last until August/September
2) Backlog cases taking many more of the interview slots
3) Getting close to the quota
Seeing the CEAC data in Transit update would confirm between 1 and 2.
Sorry if it is the basic knowledge
1.Does backlog mean cases that were current but not processed due to late submission of DS260?
2.How many visa are allocated to Nepal and how many are issued? where can I see that information
3.Do you think if Nepal final cut off would be 6475? or will it increase?
4. Once the final cut off is announced, does that mean no interview will be scheduled for August or September? What happens to the CN that were current but not processed by then lets say AS61XX?
Hope you don't mind answering?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
1. Correct.
2. Countries do not have an allocation of visas. However, no one country can exceed more than 7% of the global limit - so that puts an effective limit of around 3500 on any given country. WE can see the data from the CEAC system which I make available in this forum and on my blog. The CEAC data shows data by embassy so a Nepal candidate interviewing in India would not be shown in that embassy data, and some foreignors might be showing in KDU. On balance I would guess there are more Nepalese interviewing outside of Nepal than outsiders interview in Nepal. Furthermore, AoS cases don't show in CEAC. For those reasons I consider the effective Nepal target in CEAC data to be around 3300 to 3400.
3. I believe it will increase - see below.
4. Cases in your example (61XX) could have an interview in September if the 7% country limit had not been hit.
AS of today KDU embassy have issued 2378 visas - and that can only cover case numbers up to 5275. So - they have maintained the visas issued per thousand number of 450. THat number may have been impacted slightly by the earthquake which caused a one week shutdown of DV processing at the embassy. There is no reduction in density in Nepal cases until their endpoint, so if they continue at that issued rate (450/1000) the 6475 number is not enough to meet the 3500 limit. So - it is more or less certain that the next VB will increase the 6475 number (6.475 x 450 = 2914).
Finally, if Nepal continues to get 450 issued visas per 1000 case numbers, the final cutoff for Nepal will come at around 7600 or less. I think the minimum would be at least 7000.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
They still have not updated the CEAC data with all the 2NLs. There are around 30 cases marked as in transit in Asia - that updated happened on Wednesday but nothing since then. Very bizarre.
I will be producing a month end file - probably later today or over the weekend.
ok thank you,i m really worried about next VB, as only weird things happen with 2Nls, CEAC data...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The status date is the last "update" of the file - but it does not have to mean an interview has taken place.
In transit is the status that represents when KCC are passing the file to the embassy (the 2NLs). Once the embassy marks the case as received, the case shows ready. However, the 2NLs are not updated - and that affects my ability to predict the next VB.