• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

CEAC data update

AidaX said:
Hello guys :)
We got our interview date finally, June 9.
But I wanna ask something, my husband, which is the principal applicant, has lived in Itali for several years. We got the police record in Firenze, where he lived from 2004-2010, but later someone told us we have to take the police record in Rome! Is it true? Shall we take an other police record or even contact the embassy for clarification?
Thnx in advance,
Aida
Click to expand...

You should read and follow the instructions from the reciprocity page which clearly answers your question.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/fees/reciprocity-by-country/IT.html
 
Edouard said:
Would really EU become current this year? At least unto our 2015EU434xx CN? Give me a piece of hope, my dearest friends...
Click to expand...

We are only guessing Edouard - the difference between current and not current for EU is very small. None of us can be that precise.
 
Britsimon said:
Your "Average DS File Rate" is what I call the response rate. For EU - as I described here there is a marked difference between the rate with U2 countries and the rate without. Not only will their response rate be lower, I imagine their no show rate would be lower. It would be better to divide the region into two groups. Calculate the U2 numbers and then add the non U2 numbers. For the non U2 countries the response rate is going to be higher than 50% and the now show rate will be small (or interview show rate would be over 90%).

Now will EU be current? as I have said several times it is (I believe) the closest to being able to go current of all the regions. The difference between most estimates (40-42) and current (45006) is actually very small (1114 cases of which maybe 600 will have responded). So - it is not such a big stretch to imagine EU going current - and they are within striking distance based on the VB so far. However, I think they will have tried to aim for an August cutoff for EU. So - to go current they need a couple of big jumps OR they need to be on low 40's in August and go current in September. As it is so tight, I imagine we will only know for sure in July....
Click to expand...

Thanks Simon for clarifying some issues. You blog is very helpful.
Please take a loook at the image attached below. I made a comparison between your calculations of response rate of March, and my calculations based on the last CEAC extract. We can see that the process is "maturing" (as you have described on your blog).


Please also take a look at the second picture where you can find someting I call "Interview show rate". Please note that we do not see lower values for U2 countries here.

{ I could not attached pictures to this post. I have to go now, maybe I will do it tomorrow}

Now, following my last post and your suggestions, I would like to present an equation for calculating EU chances of beeing current this year.
It looks like this:
(10969 x 40,19% + 10988 x 50,74%) x 82% x 95,33% x 2,248 = 17544 <- this is only an example.
(selectees within 0-15000 range x DS File Rate in 0-15000range + selectees outside this range x DS File Rate outisde this range) x "Interview show rate" x "Success rate" x "family rate").

In this equation we have:

CONSTANTS:
selectees within 0-15000 range = 10969
selectees outside this range = 10988
Success rate = 95,33%
family rate=2,248

VARIBLES:
DS File Rate in 0-15000range = +/- 40,19% (expecting max increase of this value at around +5%)
Interview show rate = +/- 82% (expecting max increase of this value at around +2%)
DS File Rate outisde of 1-15000 range - currently at 50,74 % (right now main factor in our equation)


Simon - what do you think - how many visas should we reserve for AOS in EU region? 1000 visas?
This way we could estimate the maximum DS File Rate outisde of 1-15000 range which will allow EU to go current.
 
szym said:
Thanks Simon for clarifying some issues. You blog is very helpful.
Please take a loook at the image attached below. I made a comparison between your calculations of response rate of March, and my calculations based on the last CEAC extract. We can see that the process is "maturing" (as you have described on your blog).


Please also take a look at the second picture where you can find someting I call "Interview show rate". Please note that we do not see lower values for U2 countries here.

{ I could not attached pictures to this post. I have to go now, maybe I will do it tomorrow}

Now, following my last post and your suggestions, I would like to present an equation for calculating EU chances of beeing current this year.
It looks like this:
(10969 x 40,19% + 10988 x 50,74%) x 82% x 95,33% x 2,248 = 17544 <- this is only an example.
(selectees within 0-15000 range x DS File Rate in 0-15000range + selectees outside this range x DS File Rate outisde this range) x "Interview show rate" x "Success rate" x "family rate").

In this equation we have:

CONSTANTS:
selectees within 0-15000 range = 10969
selectees outside this range = 10988
Success rate = 95,33%
family rate=2,248

VARIBLES:
DS File Rate in 0-15000range = +/- 40,19% (expecting max increase of this value at around +5%)
Interview show rate = +/- 82% (expecting max increase of this value at around +2%)
DS File Rate outisde of 1-15000 range - currently at 50,74 % (right now main factor in our equation)


Simon - what do you think - how many visas should we reserve for AOS in EU region? 1000 visas?
This way we could estimate the maximum DS File Rate outisde of 1-15000 range which will allow EU to go current.
Click to expand...

I look forward to seeing the picture. Yes around 1000 (perhaps a little more) for EU AoS.

In general your calculation is too simplistic - but hey - it is just for fun. Everything varies by country (response, approval, no show, AP, derivative rate, even the rate at which the embassy updates CEAC). By the way, I think your no show rate is probably too high because the embassies don't consistently update the status for Refused and AP cases. Did you allow for that?

Particularly for Refused, if the case is refused, every derivative is refused (but sometimes the derivatives status stays at READY). So for example, in the latest CEAC file 424 selectees show as refused. However, if you filter on refused cases you see a further 195 selectees that are marked as ready but are in fact refused. So - you probably have them as no show - and they are not. Likewise there are 381 people marked as READY when the principal is on AP. Basically those people will also appear as no shows to you. So - there are about 600 people you have as no shows, who in fact have most likely been interviewed. So - to be honest you are relying on a no show rate which is a lot less significant than you might think.
 
Thank you for the reply Britsimon!
I read the link and what I understood was:
The carichi pendenti must be obtained in Florence, meanwhile the casellario giudiziale CAN be obtained in Florence OR in Rome. Am I correct?
Thnx again @Britsimon it's very kind of you to share so much information!!
 
AidaX said:
Thank you for the reply Britsimon!
I read the link and what I understood was:
The carichi pendenti must be obtained in Florence, meanwhile the casellario giudiziale CAN be obtained in Florence OR in Rome. Am I correct?
Thnx again @Britsimon it's very kind of you to share so much information!!
Click to expand...

The point I took from a brief scan is that the PCC applies nationally - but you have the link so make sure you follow the instruction.
 
Edouard said:
Would really EU become current this year? At least unto our 2015EU434xx CN? Give me a piece of hope, my dearest friends...
Click to expand...
I do not know where they have to throw extra 20,000 won. It is 10,000 visas.
The chances of the current 0.1%. In your CN, I would have given 10.
 
Britsimon said:
I look forward to seeing the picture. Yes around 1000 (perhaps a little more) for EU AoS.

In general your calculation is too simplistic - but hey - it is just for fun. Everything varies by country (response, approval, no show, AP, derivative rate, even the rate at which the embassy updates CEAC).
Click to expand...

Hm, I do not think that later cases have different distribution then cases currently interviewed. We have data from different countries (that has been updated so far in CEAC) and later cases also are from different countries. For example, I do not see a reason why the data from range 20000-30000 is different from data from range 30000-40000. In both ranges we have the same set of coutries, the same embassies and so on.... So generaly we will have the same derivative rate, approval and so on... We are operating on the same "samples" ("sample"="case"). If the sample range is big enough than the samples are homogeneous. DV LOTTERY should ensure that the data is uniform throughout the whole range (excluding the U2 countries situation of course).


Britsimon said:
By the way, I think your no show rate is probably too high because the embassies don't consistently update the status for Refused and AP cases. Did you allow for that?
Click to expand...

Yes, I did.
If as case is Refused than I count it as SHOW.
If a case is on AP I also count it as SHOW.
I only count NO SHOW when the case is READY.
All other status (except READY and of course NVC) is couted as SHOW.

Please also note that I do not count seperate people (main principal + family), but I only count cases (so one case number is counted only once, no matter how big the family is). That ensures that I will not make a mistake when for example the main principal was issued a visa, and the rest of family is on AP.


Britsimon said:
Particularly for Refused, if the case is refused, every derivative is refused (but sometimes the derivatives status stays at READY).
Click to expand...

Yes, but this does not matter for me, because if the principal is on REFUSED that means that he was on interview. So I count is as SHOW. No matter what is the status of his family members. And please remember that I only count is as 1, because I count only case numbers, no family members. [/QUOTE]


Britsimon said:
So for example, in the latest CEAC file 424 selectees show as refused. However, if you filter on refused cases you see a further 195 selectees that are marked as ready but are in fact refused. So - you probably have them as no show - and they are not.
Click to expand...

No, I have them as SHOW.

Britsimon said:
Likewise there are 381 people marked as READY when the principal is on AP. Basically those people will also appear as no shows to you.
Click to expand...

When the pricncipal is on AP that means I count this case as SHOW. [/QUOTE]


Britsimon said:
So - there are about 600 people you have as no shows, who in fact have most likely been interviewed. So - to be honest you are relying on a no show rate which is a lot less significant than you might think.
Click to expand...

Simon, can you give me your e-mail on PM? I will send you those calculations, so you can make sure they are ok.
Below you can find "Interview show rate" calculations in text format (It is hard to see the data this way, but it's better than nothing):

range - interview - show - no show - interview show rate
0-1000 274 221 53 80,66%
1000-2000 285 231 54 81,05%
2000-3000 300 236 64 78,67%
3000-4000 313 259 53 83,01%
4000-5000 280 225 55 80,36%
5000-6000 292 246 46 84,25%
6000-7000 285 231 54 81,05%
7000-8000 315 260 55 82,54%
8000-9000 300 235 65 78,33%
9000-10000 292 242 50 82,88%
10000-11000 311 257 54 82,64%
11000-12000 308 243 65 78,90%
12000-13000 306 241 65 78,76%
13000-14000 300 251 49 83,67%
14000-15000 247 216 31 87,45%
15000-16000 185 155 30 83,78%
16000-17000 179 141 38 78,77%
17000-18000 177 145 32 81,92%
18000-19000 186 151 35 81,18%
19000-20000 192 150 43 77,72%
20000-21000 197 160 37 81,22%
21000-22000 202 159 43 78,71%
22000-23000 187 151 36 80,75%
23000-24000 213 163 50 76,53%
24000-25000 191 140 51 73,30%
25000-26000 163 112 51 68,71%
26000-27000 174 118 56 67,82%
27000-28000 173 107 66 61,85%
28000-29000 194 80 114 41,24%
29000-30000 164 31 133 18,90%
 
szym said:
Hm, I do not think that later cases have different distribution then cases currently interviewed. We have data from different countries (that has been updated so far in CEAC) and later cases also are from different countries. For example, I do not see a reason why the data from range 20000-30000 is different from data from range 30000-40000. In both ranges we have the same set of coutries, the same embassies and so on.... So generaly we will have the same derivative rate, approval and so on... We are operating on the same "samples" ("sample"="case"). If the sample range is big enough than the samples are homogeneous. DV LOTTERY should ensure that the data is uniform throughout the whole range (excluding the U2 countries situation of course).




Yes, I did.
If as case is Refused than I count it as SHOW.
If a case is on AP I also count it as SHOW.
I only count NO SHOW when the case is READY.
All other status (except READY and of course NVC) is couted as SHOW.

Please also note that I do not count seperate people (main principal + family), but I only count cases (so one case number is counted only once, no matter how big the family is). That ensures that I will not make a mistake when for example the main principal was issued a visa, and the rest of family is on AP.




Yes, but this does not matter for me, because if the principal is on REFUSED that means that he was on interview. So I count is as SHOW. No matter what is the status of his family members. And please remember that I only count is as 1, because I count only case numbers, no family members.
Click to expand...




No, I have them as SHOW.



When the pricncipal is on AP that means I count this case as SHOW. [/QUOTE]




Simon, can you give me your e-mail on PM? I will send you those calculations, so you can make sure they are ok.
Below you can find "Interview show rate" calculations in text format (It is hard to see the data this way, but it's better than nothing):

range - interview - show - no show - interview show rate
0-1000 274 221 53 80,66%
1000-2000 285 231 54 81,05%
2000-3000 300 236 64 78,67%
3000-4000 313 259 53 83,01%
4000-5000 280 225 55 80,36%
5000-6000 292 246 46 84,25%
6000-7000 285 231 54 81,05%
7000-8000 315 260 55 82,54%
8000-9000 300 235 65 78,33%
9000-10000 292 242 50 82,88%
10000-11000 311 257 54 82,64%
11000-12000 308 243 65 78,90%
12000-13000 306 241 65 78,76%
13000-14000 300 251 49 83,67%
14000-15000 247 216 31 87,45%
15000-16000 185 155 30 83,78%
16000-17000 179 141 38 78,77%
17000-18000 177 145 32 81,92%
18000-19000 186 151 35 81,18%
19000-20000 192 150 43 77,72%
20000-21000 197 160 37 81,22%
21000-22000 202 159 43 78,71%
22000-23000 187 151 36 80,75%
23000-24000 213 163 50 76,53%
24000-25000 191 140 51 73,30%
25000-26000 163 112 51 68,71%
26000-27000 174 118 56 67,82%
27000-28000 173 107 66 61,85%
28000-29000 194 80 114 41,24%
29000-30000 164 31 133 18,90%[/QUOTE]


Ok, I understand your method but again - the no show rate is overstated. I can't tell what file you are looking at, but whatever file it is it will have future interviews in there. This month, 50% of EU interviews were from backlog cases (case numbers in lower ranges). That is 655 of the 1320 interviews. Last month that number was 70% (500 of the 715 interviews). Depending on whether those have changed from in transit to ready those could appear as no shows. Then there are the embassies that don't update the case immediately after the interview. And so on. The point is, the final no show rate (measured after September 30) will not be 18%.

My email is not a secret - britsimon3 at gmail.
 
Shahram9140 said:
Hey Simon do you have any fresh news about AP clearing period about Iranian cases?
Click to expand...

No - I have noticed the issued cases for Iran are starting to build - but have not yet been able to confirm the rumor that AP periods have shortened. I am getting conflicting messages about that - and need to do some database work to be able to confirm which I may not have time to do this week.
 
Britsimon said:
No - I have noticed the issued cases for Iran are starting to build - but have not yet been able to confirm the rumor that AP periods have shortened. I am getting conflicting messages about that - and need to do some database work to be able to confirm which I may not have time to do this week.
Click to expand...
Thanks a lot ,waiting for the next week then!
 
Hello everyone, and congratulations to DV-2016 winners!

I want to ask a question, for my interview which will mostly be in September (if ever), can I start collecting documents (including Police, birth certificate....) except the medicals of course? The reason I'm asking is because I may soon leave my original country to the country where I will have my interview, and I may not be able to come back again.

Thank a lot!
 
FSW201: 2396854 said:
Hello everyone, and congratulations to DV-2016 winners!

I want to ask a question, for my interview which will mostly be in September (if ever), can I start collecting documents (including Police, birth certificate....) except the medicals of course? The reason I'm asking is because I may soon leave my original country to the country where I will have my interview, and I may not be able to come back again.

Thank a lot!
Click to expand...
Hi there! Yes you can start collecting documents as they would be still valid in September. Good luck!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top