Britsimon
Super Moderator
You are reading too much into the status update.
CEAC data update
- Thread starter Britsimon
- Start date
You are reading too much into the status update.
n.n.
Active Member
Very strange
In the beginning of May, there were 16852 Family members for CNs below 34,000 with status other than NVC and Refused for EU region
Now, after 2NL - 16924
This should mean, that only 16924 - 16852 = 72 Family members with CNs below 34,000 were added for EU. (Late DS260s)
72 family members is around 30 CNs
This should be very good for EU applicants, but I do not understand why we had such a small increase in last VB
Either next VB will be surprisingly good for us, or this CEAC data is not correct, or there will be issued less visas in EU (may be in other regions as well) this year comparing to previous one.
In the beginning of May, there were 16852 Family members for CNs below 34,000 with status other than NVC and Refused for EU region
Now, after 2NL - 16924
This should mean, that only 16924 - 16852 = 72 Family members with CNs below 34,000 were added for EU. (Late DS260s)
72 family members is around 30 CNs
This should be very good for EU applicants, but I do not understand why we had such a small increase in last VB
Either next VB will be surprisingly good for us, or this CEAC data is not correct, or there will be issued less visas in EU (may be in other regions as well) this year comparing to previous one.
Why should they even worry about sparing less visas for DV-2015 though? Especially given the fact that, they already draw more than required number of winners.
I believe it would be quite impossible for the CEAC data being wrong. Maybe it is the interpretation which is off.
Then comes your first opinion which in fact is the reality- I believe, a good bump is awaiting for the late-comers in the EU the next VB.
n.n.
Active Member
Actually, as I understand latecomers have not so much to do with next VB. It is more important to see if they received 2NL and according to this CEAC data neither latecomers were invited, nor big step was for high CNs in the last VB.
This means that neither latecomers, nor high CN winners were invited an this is quite strange.
If next VB also will have small step, then we will have to wait for next 2NL sending to see who was invited.
Currently, having faced small step during last VB I expected that this was due to latecomers. But seems that either there are other reasons or there was some problem extracting CEAC data. Otherwise the progress for EU will be very low and less than DV2014 visas will be issued.
Legally, nothing is wrong, but having selected 125k people it would be natural to expect that at least the same amount of visas (53,000) should be issued this year. Otherwise we will see another big fail of KCC this year. Although, legally everything will be ok.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Please shed some light on the "another big fail of KCC" theory
n.n.
Active Member
Please shed some light on the "another big fail of KCC" theory
Ok
)))I meant unnecessary dissapointment of tens of thouthands people
Sorry if I exaggerate a bit
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
No, this is ok of course, no problem. We know the feeling unfortunately, as we were in your shoes last year. Good luck!Ok
I meant unnecessary dissapointment of tens of thouthands people
Sorry if I exaggerate a bit
n.n.
Active Member
Thanks!
Thanks to you we are more prepared and will be less dissapointed. There are still some chances left for us I think. Very few visas are issued and I hope that this trend will improve during next VBs.
In 2014 the picture was different. Many visas have been issued and there was a chance that they would run out of visas.
Nevertheless, there are onle 2 VBs left so we will see what happens quite soon.
Thanks to you we are more prepared and will be less dissapointed. There are still some chances left for us I think. Very few visas are issued and I hope that this trend will improve during next VBs.
In 2014 the picture was different. Many visas have been issued and there was a chance that they would run out of visas.
Nevertheless, there are onle 2 VBs left so we will see what happens quite soon.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
Thanks. Personally, I am pretty confident that we will see a substantial CN jump with forthcoming VB for August. It will, undoubtedly, be a step in the right direction...
I am with you bro. It'll hit 40 K this VB. Last but not the least will be open to any surprise and we'll see that by 7/15. All I am speaking of is with regards to the EU.Thanks. Personally, I am pretty confident that we will see a substantial CN jump with forthcoming VB for August. It will, undoubtedly, be a step in the right direction...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I keep saying this - and I mention in the article. The 2NLs have not been updated to CEAC.....
I am sorry. By late-comers I meant those with high confirmation numbers. It is my bad if this resulted in a language issue. Nevertheless, your points are solid but still, I am expecting a better case scenario for the EU despite your concern.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Latecomers DO impact the VB. The VB number is calculated based on the number visas they want to issue assuming a given show/approval rate. This leads to a number of interviews required and that depends on embassy capacity. Latecomers (backlog cases) take some number of those interviews - meaning the VB number needs to be increased by less than if no backlog cases were there.
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
May I just point out that even getting a 2NL is not actually even a guarantee of an interview much less a visa towards the end of the FY. Extremely rare not to of course, but in the year that Bangladesh hit its country quota early in September they canceled remaining interviews.
I would suspect that part of the way they are approaching it now is precisely to prevent that kind of scenario happening again, but of course kcc is never going to please everyone all the time. Someone will always accuse it of a "big fail" and that will always depend on what their own vested interest is
I would suspect that part of the way they are approaching it now is precisely to prevent that kind of scenario happening again, but of course kcc is never going to please everyone all the time. Someone will always accuse it of a "big fail" and that will always depend on what their own vested interest is
Britsimon
Super Moderator
May I just point out that even getting a 2NL is not actually even a guarantee of an interview much less a visa towards the end of the FY. Extremely rare not to of course, but in the year that Bangladesh hit its country quota early in September they canceled remaining interviews.
I would suspect that part of the way they are approaching it now is precisely to prevent that kind of scenario happening again, but of course kcc is never going to please everyone all the time. Someone will always accuse it of a "big fail" and that will always depend on what their own vested interest is
Agreed. DV2014 certainly was not a big fail. They achieved exactly what they were supposed to achieve. Sure - a few thousand people got left out in the cold - but you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs....
By the way - people don't seem to realize the importance of the derivative growth rate on the process. AF started DV2015 with 58000 selectees. According to the derivative rate - that number has swelled to over 70,000 due to marriages, births and so on. That is within the rules of the program - but hard to cope with and of course we know that many of those extra 12,000 were already married but left off the eDVs - meaning there are many countries with dramatically high refusal rates.
Then there is the no show factor. Very hard to predict because this year was the first with DS260. But again - impactful.
So - with such a moving target and such a lot of personal stories involved it is easy to label things as a big fail - and we all feel that way from time to time - but their job isn't easy to get right - there will either be people left in the cold or wasted visas.
EURO2014
Well-Known Member
This is only speculative, of course, yet on management level they might not fancy providing access to aggregated actual CEAC data - the other month the change in script coding, now the clearly delayed information update. Just saying, hopefully I am wrong on this - of course they would need to ensure that individual case status updates would still function. As said, just speculation...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah - they may be thrilled by the grabbing of the data - but the website clearly states you can use the data how you like.
Additionally - the embassies don't just "ignore" the data which tells me they might actually care about the updates themselves - even though some embassies are less dependable.
n.n.
Active Member
Sorry if I am a little bit emotional. I think many of you understand me I understand that DV2014 was not a "big fail". I just would like to expect that this year will not be so much disappointing as previous one for the winners.
I made some calculations for EU region and compared CEAC files for 3 May 2014 and 29 May 2015.
The biggest impact on CNs currently can have the response rate. Other calculations are made by @Britsimon on his blog and as the density for EU is a little bit increased, then it is obvious to predict that if other conditions stay the same the highest CN this year will be little bit lover than the one in DV2014.
So, at least for me, the biggest question is "What is happening to the response rate or no-shows?"
Below is the comparison of Family Members by consulate for EU (May 2014 to May 2015). I just took raw files without same cut-offs. And even more, I took file as of beginning of May 2014 and as of end of May 2015 in order to give even more advantage to this year.
The interesting thing is that the picture is not the same by consulates. And it varies a lot. UU countries have very low RR. Then go Sofia, Warsaw and Athens! Difference is very big comparing to previous year.
On the other hand, there are countries with higher RR (lowest rows).
I skipped the rows with insignificant changes, otherwise there would be 102 rows instead 0f 34. Currently, there are 1,700 people less who filled DS260 and who's number became current as of end of may comparing to previous year.
1,700 is very high number. It makes more than 4,000 CNs. I understand that RR can change after CEAC is properly updated, but anyways, such a big difference by countries makes me think that there are some other reasons then delays in DS260 processing.
Any thoughts and comments are welcome.
CONSULATE 2014 2015 DIFF(n) DIFF(%)
KEV 2057 1174 (883) 57%
THT 3285 2448 (837) 75%
SOF 950 761 (189) 80%
WRW 1234 1078 (156) 87%
ATH 300 179 (121) 60%
MOS 1951 1864 (87) 96%
MDD 202 158 (44) 78%
PRS 291 254 (37) 87%
AKD 102 71 (31) 70%
RGA 57 28 (29) 49%
VIL 120 96 (24) 80%
BEN 79 56 (23) 71%
LND 159 137 (22) 86%
ZGB 38 18 (20) 47%
BDP 126 107 (19) 85%
NPL 324 305 (19) 94%
AMS 67 52 (15) 78%
JRS 169 156 (13) 92%
BNS 13 1 (12) 8%
RDJ 16 4 (12) 25%
KIN 11 1 (10) 9%
SYD 41 31 (10) 76%
STK 60 70 10 117%
PRG 49 62 13 127%
ABD 18 37 19 206%
BRS 22 48 26 218%
SAR 31 63 32 203%
ANK 980 1019 39 104%
CHS 1009 1076 67 107%
YRV 1171 1261 90 108%
ATA 587 685 98 117%
TBL 473 604 131 128%
SKO 222 372 150 168%
TIA 1490 1775 285 119%
I understand that DV2014 was not a "big fail". I just would like to expect that this year will not be so much disappointing as previous one for the winners.I made some calculations for EU region and compared CEAC files for 3 May 2014 and 29 May 2015.
The biggest impact on CNs currently can have the response rate. Other calculations are made by @Britsimon on his blog and as the density for EU is a little bit increased, then it is obvious to predict that if other conditions stay the same the highest CN this year will be little bit lover than the one in DV2014.
So, at least for me, the biggest question is "What is happening to the response rate or no-shows?"
Below is the comparison of Family Members by consulate for EU (May 2014 to May 2015). I just took raw files without same cut-offs. And even more, I took file as of beginning of May 2014 and as of end of May 2015 in order to give even more advantage to this year.
The interesting thing is that the picture is not the same by consulates. And it varies a lot. UU countries have very low RR. Then go Sofia, Warsaw and Athens! Difference is very big comparing to previous year.
On the other hand, there are countries with higher RR (lowest rows).
I skipped the rows with insignificant changes, otherwise there would be 102 rows instead 0f 34. Currently, there are 1,700 people less who filled DS260 and who's number became current as of end of may comparing to previous year.
1,700 is very high number. It makes more than 4,000 CNs. I understand that RR can change after CEAC is properly updated, but anyways, such a big difference by countries makes me think that there are some other reasons then delays in DS260 processing.
Any thoughts and comments are welcome.
CONSULATE 2014 2015 DIFF(n) DIFF(%)
KEV 2057 1174 (883) 57%
THT 3285 2448 (837) 75%
SOF 950 761 (189) 80%
WRW 1234 1078 (156) 87%
ATH 300 179 (121) 60%
MOS 1951 1864 (87) 96%
MDD 202 158 (44) 78%
PRS 291 254 (37) 87%
AKD 102 71 (31) 70%
RGA 57 28 (29) 49%
VIL 120 96 (24) 80%
BEN 79 56 (23) 71%
LND 159 137 (22) 86%
ZGB 38 18 (20) 47%
BDP 126 107 (19) 85%
NPL 324 305 (19) 94%
AMS 67 52 (15) 78%
JRS 169 156 (13) 92%
BNS 13 1 (12) 8%
RDJ 16 4 (12) 25%
KIN 11 1 (10) 9%
SYD 41 31 (10) 76%
STK 60 70 10 117%
PRG 49 62 13 127%
ABD 18 37 19 206%
BRS 22 48 26 218%
SAR 31 63 32 203%
ANK 980 1019 39 104%
CHS 1009 1076 67 107%
YRV 1171 1261 90 108%
ATA 587 685 98 117%
TBL 473 604 131 128%
SKO 222 372 150 168%
TIA 1490 1775 285 119%
Strong work n.n.Sorry if I am a little bit emotional. I think many of you understand me
I made some calculations for EU region and compared CEAC files for 3 May 2014 and 29 May 2015.
The biggest impact on CNs currently can have the response rate. Other calculations are made by @Britsimon on his blog and as the density for EU is a little bit increased, then it is obvious to predict that if other conditions stay the same the highest CN this year will be little bit lover than the one in DV2014.
So, at least for me, the biggest question is "What is happening to the response rate or no-shows?"
Below is the comparison of Family Members by consulate for EU (May 2014 to May 2015). I just took raw files without same cut-offs. And even more, I took file as of beginning of May 2014 and as of end of May 2015 in order to give even more advantage to this year.
The interesting thing is that the picture is not the same by consulates. And it varies a lot. UU countries have very low RR. Then go Sofia, Warsaw and Athens! Difference is very big comparing to previous year.
On the other hand, there are countries with higher RR (lowest rows).
I skipped the rows with insignificant changes, otherwise there would be 102 rows instead 0f 34. Currently, there are 1,700 people less who filled DS260 and who's number became current as of end of may comparing to previous year.
1,700 is very high number. It makes more than 4,000 CNs. I understand that RR can change after CEAC is properly updated, but anyways, such a big difference by countries makes me think that there are some other reasons then delays in DS260 processing.
Any thoughts and comments are welcome.
CONSULATE 2014 2015 DIFF(n) DIFF(%)
KEV 2057 1174 (883) 57%
THT 3285 2448 (837) 75%
SOF 950 761 (189) 80%
WRW 1234 1078 (156) 87%
ATH 300 179 (121) 60%
MOS 1951 1864 (87) 96%
MDD 202 158 (44) 78%
PRS 291 254 (37) 87%
AKD 102 71 (31) 70%
RGA 57 28 (29) 49%
VIL 120 96 (24) 80%
BEN 79 56 (23) 71%
LND 159 137 (22) 86%
ZGB 38 18 (20) 47%
BDP 126 107 (19) 85%
NPL 324 305 (19) 94%
AMS 67 52 (15) 78%
JRS 169 156 (13) 92%
BNS 13 1 (12) 8%
RDJ 16 4 (12) 25%
KIN 11 1 (10) 9%
SYD 41 31 (10) 76%
STK 60 70 10 117%
PRG 49 62 13 127%
ABD 18 37 19 206%
BRS 22 48 26 218%
SAR 31 63 32 203%
ANK 980 1019 39 104%
CHS 1009 1076 67 107%
YRV 1171 1261 90 108%
ATA 587 685 98 117%
TBL 473 604 131 128%
SKO 222 372 150 168%
TIA 1490 1775 285 119%
How did you come up with the finding of density being increased for EU though?
Is that because there are 1700 less forms being filed when compared to last year but still we are a bit behind of the May 2014 cut-off?
n.n.
Active Member
Thanks. As for density increase, this was calculated by Britsimon. Here is the link http://britsimonsays.com/dv2015-analysis/