CEAC data update

[bici]

Thanks. As for density increase, this was calculated by Britsimon. Here is the link http://britsimonsays.com/dv2015-analysis/

I re-read his note. Apparently, he is talking of a density increase w.r.t. DV-2014. He correlates at least some part of this increase to agents in U2 countries. Per your analysis, the RR in the U2 countries has decreased which should at least partially level off the increased density- if it really exists.
Other than that, when looking into DV-2015 the density for EU from CN 16000 onwards seems steady around 350/K.
There is 11K issued visas for EU so far by the end of 5/2014. We all know June and July interviews will not produce more than 2K of visa especially given the lesser number of ppl going to be scheduled for July as per the June VB.
AOS is said to be another 1.5K at most.
That should make 11+2+1.5= 14.5 K .Say it is 15K.
Should not here still be at least 4-5K of visas? Which in turn requires another 8-10K of CN?

 

[EURO2014]

I re-read his note. Apparently, he is talking of a density increase w.r.t. DV-2014. He correlates at least some part of this increase to agents in U2 countries. Per your analysis, the RR in the U2 countries has decreased which should at least partially level off the increased density- if it really exists.
Other than that, when looking into DV-2015 the density for EU from CN 16000 onwards seems steady around 350/K.
There is 11K issued visas for EU so far by the end of 5/2014. We all know June and July interviews will not produce more than 2K of visa especially given the lesser number of ppl going to be scheduled for July as per the June VB.
AOS is said to be another 1.5K at most.
That should make 11+2+1.5= 14.5 K .Say it is 15K.
Should not here still be at least 4-5K of visas? Which in turn requires another 8-10K of CN?

It looks then from your calculation that they will run out of EU CN numbers before they'll have assigned all available DV visa for EU in 2015?

 

[bici]

It looks then from your calculation that they will run out of EU CN numbers before they'll have assigned all available DV visa for EU in 2015?

Available visas left and corresponding CNs that I have provided are kind of educated guesses towards pointing the big picture. I might be wrong eventually. I do not think there will be any visas left unassigned for the EU region unless there are a huge number of no-shows, refusals etc. What I meant was that things are going slowly but surely for the EU and possibly to current in the last VB. We all know that there are a ton of variables in this. None of us can be sure- even the KCC. The sole truth will be known by 7/15.

 

[Britsimon]

Sorry if I am a little bit emotional. I think many of you understand me I understand that DV2014 was not a "big fail". I just would like to expect that this year will not be so much disappointing as previous one for the winners.

I made some calculations for EU region and compared CEAC files for 3 May 2014 and 29 May 2015.
The biggest impact on CNs currently can have the response rate. Other calculations are made by @Britsimon on his blog and as the density for EU is a little bit increased, then it is obvious to predict that if other conditions stay the same the highest CN this year will be little bit lover than the one in DV2014.

So, at least for me, the biggest question is "What is happening to the response rate or no-shows?"
Below is the comparison of Family Members by consulate for EU (May 2014 to May 2015). I just took raw files without same cut-offs. And even more, I took file as of beginning of May 2014 and as of end of May 2015 in order to give even more advantage to this year.

The interesting thing is that the picture is not the same by consulates. And it varies a lot. UU countries have very low RR. Then go Sofia, Warsaw and Athens! Difference is very big comparing to previous year.
On the other hand, there are countries with higher RR (lowest rows).

I skipped the rows with insignificant changes, otherwise there would be 102 rows instead 0f 34. Currently, there are 1,700 people less who filled DS260 and who's number became current as of end of may comparing to previous year.
1,700 is very high number. It makes more than 4,000 CNs. I understand that RR can change after CEAC is properly updated, but anyways, such a big difference by countries makes me think that there are some other reasons then delays in DS260 processing.

Any thoughts and comments are welcome.

CONSULATE 2014 2015 DIFF(n) DIFF(%)

KEV 2057 1174 (883) 57%
THT 3285 2448 (837) 75%
SOF 950 761 (189) 80%
WRW 1234 1078 (156) 87%
ATH 300 179 (121) 60%
MOS 1951 1864 (87) 96%
MDD 202 158 (44) 78%
PRS 291 254 (37) 87%
AKD 102 71 (31) 70%
RGA 57 28 (29) 49%
VIL 120 96 (24) 80%
BEN 79 56 (23) 71%
LND 159 137 (22) 86%
ZGB 38 18 (20) 47%
BDP 126 107 (19) 85%
NPL 324 305 (19) 94%
AMS 67 52 (15) 78%
JRS 169 156 (13) 92%
BNS 13 1 (12) 8%
RDJ 16 4 (12) 25%
KIN 11 1 (10) 9%
SYD 41 31 (10) 76%
STK 60 70 10 117%
PRG 49 62 13 127%
ABD 18 37 19 206%
BRS 22 48 26 218%
SAR 31 63 32 203%
ANK 980 1019 39 104%
CHS 1009 1076 67 107%
YRV 1171 1261 90 108%
ATA 587 685 98 117%
TBL 473 604 131 128%
SKO 222 372 150 168%
TIA 1490 1775 285 119%

Don't forget the response rate is still growing - more so than last year. In DV2014 DS230 processing started the year at around 8 weeks - but finished up the year at 2 to 3 weeks - meaning little or no backlog was noticed. The May response rate in DV2015 will be increasing - right to Julne, July (and possibly August/September to a lesser extent).

Obviously the DS260 was a game change in a few ways. We have speculated about higher response and higher no show rate in AF region. There is also a MUCH higher derivative growth rate this year. Again - I think that could be to do with DS260. In the paper based world, people sent in their forms and that was it. Some knew how to update their case - but there are far more people doing that in DV2015. So - the online forms will have allowed more updates (better accuracy perhaps), more derivatives, cheaper/easier submission (leading to more no shows). Lots of differences.....

 

[EURO2014]

Available visas left and corresponding CNs that I have provided are kind of educated guesses towards pointing the big picture. I might be wrong eventually. I do not think there will be any visas left unassigned for the EU region unless there are a huge number of no-shows, refusals etc. What I meant was that things are going slowly but surely for the EU and possibly to current in the last VB. We all know that there are a ton of variables in this. None of us can be sure- even the KCC. The sole truth will be known by 7/15.

Quite so. If I remember correctly, your CN is within the 39K range. Depending on which specific 39K number sequence, you might stand a good chance, still. Obviously, the only thing one needs is for the announced EU September figure to come out as one simple number above one's own personal CN... Good luck!

 

[Britsimon]

I re-read his note. Apparently, he is talking of a density increase w.r.t. DV-2014. He correlates at least some part of this increase to agents in U2 countries. Per your analysis, the RR in the U2 countries has decreased which should at least partially level off the increased density- if it really exists.
Other than that, when looking into DV-2015 the density for EU from CN 16000 onwards seems steady around 350/K.
There is 11K issued visas for EU so far by the end of 5/2014. We all know June and July interviews will not produce more than 2K of visa especially given the lesser number of ppl going to be scheduled for July as per the June VB.
AOS is said to be another 1.5K at most.
That should make 11+2+1.5= 14.5 K .Say it is 15K.
Should not here still be at least 4-5K of visas? Which in turn requires another 8-10K of CN?

Something is wrong with your math.

End of May is just over 11k.
June will produce 2k plus, and July will produce under 2k. So - the 15k is "pre-programmed" from numbers up to 35700 - and AoS is on top of that number (call that a round 1000). EU quota could be as high as 20k (at 53k global), but an underfilling of AF could impact that - so we might only have 19500. So - the most visas we could see is 4000, probably 3500. Some of those will go to backlog cases and completing AP cases. So - I think EU will see some VB increase in both the last VBs, but I would not be surprised to see a small jump for the final VB (September interviews).

EU density and response rate is relatively low - so 500 visas here or there is there can mean 1000-1500 case numbers. So - it is hard to be precise.... it is going to be a nervous wait until July for the numbers in the 40+ range.

 

[bici]

Quite so. If I remember correctly, your CN is within the 39K range. Depending on which specific 39K number sequence, you might stand a good chance, still. Obviously, the only thing one needs is for the announced EU September figure to come out as one simple number above one's own personal CN... Good luck!

That's right. Very good memory indeed. 39K- and first half. Thanks bro! Our fingers crossed.

 

[n.n.]

This I understand but I did not make calculations for Africa. I also am not talking about general impact. Your analysis is detailed an comprehensive and it is difficult not to agree.

My question is why there is such a big differences by countries in EU? May be some agents were shut down and people lost their CNs? There are 5 countries that have huge impact on RR. What should be the reason behind that?

 

[bici]

Something is wrong with your math.

End of May is just over 11k.
June will produce 2k plus, and July will produce under 2k. So - the 15k is "pre-programmed" from numbers up to 35700 - and AoS is on top of that number (call that a round 1000). EU quota could be as high as 20k (at 53k global), but an underfilling of AF could impact that - so we might only have 19500. So - the most visas we could see is 4000, probably 3500. Some of those will go to backlog cases and completing AP cases. So - I think EU will see some VB increase in both the last VBs, but I would not be surprised to see a small jump for the final VB (September interviews).

EU density and response rate is relatively low - so 500 visas here or there is there can mean 1000-1500 case numbers. So - it is hard to be precise.... it is going to be a nervous wait until July for the numbers in the 40+ range.

I understand 2K will/may come from June interviews. But, how could 1575 CN produce almost under 2K though if we are calculating the AOS and AP separately?

 

[Britsimon]

This I understand but I did not make calculations for Africa. I also am not talking about general impact. Your analysis is detailed an comprehensive and it is difficult not to agree.

My question is why there is such a big differences by countries in EU? May be some agents were shut down and people lost their CNs? There are 5 countries that have huge impact on RR. What should be the reason behind that?

The agents in the U2 countries are the most obvious impact. Lots of entries, lots of wins, high no show rate and high refusal rate. You can see the similarities with Ghana for instance. Even the FBI have noticed the U2 activity. The agents register people speculatively, and when there is a win they attempt to sell the winner his own winning information and/or arrange a marriage. Highly likely for this type of case to fall apart.

 

[Britsimon]

I understand 2K will/may come from June interviews. But, how could 1575 CN produce almost under 2K though if we are calculating the AOS and AP separately?

Backlog and AP.

May just produced ~1600 from ~720 interviews announced for May (which was a 2000 CN jump).

 

[n.n.]

The agents in the U2 countries are the most obvious impact. Lots of entries, lots of wins, high no show rate and high refusal rate. You can see the similarities with Ghana for instance. Even the FBI have noticed the U2 activity. The agents register people speculatively, and when there is a win they attempt to sell the winner his own winning information and/or arrange a marriage. Highly likely for this type of case to fall apart.

As I understand, you think that it is just a matter of time for these countries to catch up and these countries will not have impact on CN cut-offs?

Ukraine - 883 visas less than in dv2014 so far
Uzbekistan - 837 visas less
Bulgaria - 761
Poland - 156
Greece - 121

 

[Britsimon]

As I understand, you think that it is just a matter of time for these countries to catch up and these countries will not have impact on CN cut-offs?

Ukraine - 883 visas less than in dv2014 so far
Uzbekistan - 837 visas less
Bulgaria - 761
Poland - 156
Greece - 121

Huh? Where did I say that??? No - that is not what I think.

 

[Britsimon]

I can understand the AP effect on the number of issued visas for a specific month (and I believe it has a tiny effect) but should not the backlog affect the respective VB or the interview month? So, what is the relation with the backlog and the visas that could be issued for July if we already know the amount of ppl who are current for July.
Other than that, isn't it hard to compare any month with some other months especially when we are talking of many variables?

Well the CEAC data has still not been updated with the 2NL (in Transit) cases - so we don't know for sure how many interviews are set for the month of July. I suspect they held numbers down like May (something around 700 to 750) whereas April and June were ~1300.

I don't know why you think AP is tiny - it could easily be 200 to 400 visas monthly. The AP number rises and falls within the month, but AP cases have a high issued rate and generally get issued within a month or two - so the number you see is a rolling number - but that is the net result of cases going in to AP and those coming out of AP.

 

[bici]

Well the CEAC data has still not been updated with the 2NL (in Transit) cases - so we don't know for sure how many interviews are set for the month of July. I suspect they held numbers down like May (something around 700 to 750) whereas April and June were ~1300.

I don't know why you think AP is tiny - it could easily be 200 to 400 visas monthly. The AP number rises and falls within the month, but AP cases have a high issued rate and generally get issued within a month or two - so the number you see is a rolling number - but that is the net result of cases going in to AP and those coming out of AP.

I might have underestimated the effect of AP cases if that's what it is. Other than that, I better see the effect of backlog cases in a specific month. There could be a small number of CNs announced current in the very last VB but there could potentially be a larger amount of ppl being scheduled for an interview irrespective of the number of ppl being current in that specific month. All in all, they might sum up to a good number of cases to yield 2K visas in any ways.

 

[n.n.]

Quite so. If I remember correctly, your CN is within the 39K range. Depending on which specific 39K number sequence, you might stand a good chance, still. Obviously, the only thing one needs is for the announced EU September figure to come out as one simple number above one's own personal CN... Good luck!

Good points

Huh? Where did I say that??? No - that is not what I think.

Sorry, I missed your previous post where you said that there will probably be increases in both bulletins for EU.

 

[Shasha1984]

Well the CEAC data has still not been updated with the 2NL (in Transit) cases - so we don't know for sure how many interviews are set for the month of July. I suspect they held numbers down like May (something around 700 to 750) whereas April and June were ~1300.

I don't know why you think AP is tiny - it could easily be 200 to 400 visas monthly. The AP number rises and falls within the month, but AP cases have a high issued rate and generally get issued within a month or two - so the number you see is a rolling number - but that is the net result of cases going in to AP and those coming out of AP.

Hi Mr.Simon can I have your email?

 

[Britsimon]

Hi Mr.Simon can I have your email?

britsimon3 at gmail

 

[EURO2014]

Good points



Sorry, I missed your previous post where you said that there will probably be increases in both bulletins for EU.

Personal Estimate EU = 2,500 - 3,500 August, possibly 500 - 1,000 for September, if this makes any sense...

 

[n.n.]

Personal Estimate EU = 2,500 - 3,500 August, possibly 500 - 1,000 for September, if this makes any sense...

So, you think that cut-off will be less than it was in dv2014? Despite of Nigeria, despite of low RR?