OMG, We were barely handling Nepal, now we have more of Iran to worry about. Please KCC, leave some visas for ROA, this is hardly called "diversity" anymore..
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OMG, We were barely handling Nepal, now we have more of Iran to worry about. Please KCC, leave some visas for ROA, this is hardly called "diversity" anymore..Anxiety2015
Active Member
I'm sorry, just to recap, the barrier of math is standing between us
Right, 12152 is also assuming 100% response rate as I have mentioned with 2500 visas for ROA and 150 per thousand.
Now you make asked what I did't run the number at 80% or 60% response rate?
First, the current response rate 63% is a mix of Nepal + Iran+, at 9000+, there's very little or none Nepal or Iran Left.
Second, there's no way of know how many of those at NVC (did not response) is coming from ROA under 4300 now.
Third, let's take 80% response rate for example and say we have 100 case total. 80% response rate get 80 cases, right? Now the question is which 80, the 1st 80 of 100 or the last 80 of 100.
If we look at the extreme 1st 80 of 100, 80% of a 100 is fufilled at 80 and we can only work out a range.The lower the response rate, the larger the range which reders the point estimate useless.
At the end, 100% response rate is possible but highly unlikely.
Hope that helps
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Agreed, I was making a point about with FSW about worrying there.
At the end we only care about visa issued for us, and there could be a million ways how this won't happen (Not curret, AP not cleared.....)
I am sure we are awared worrying is part of the deal given you are selected. Having a relatively high number increase my worries and so as the chance of AP given my interview will be in the last 2 month of the year, and God forbid the interview is towards the end of the month+AP.
Anyway, I really hope this will work out for us just like it works out for you and Simon. Again, thanks for your help.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Just when you thought Anxiety2015 was going to have to request a forum name change....
http://forums.immigration.com/threads/dv-2015-ap-related-cases.324748/page-4#post-2391976
, what can you do but hope and prepare. Now, I don't think hope is a strategy, being prepared (or over prepared) is, at least to me.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
FYI, we do know what it is like. My number was 2014EU314XX. I had been through a multi RFE battle with USCIS over my H1 visa (because I was sponsored by my brothers company) and that left me $10,000 worse off whilst I already knew we had the DV chance. And when we started our DV journey there was doubt even that the 2014 would go that high. Then I opted for AoS and had to deal with a field office that did not seem to understand the urgency of DV cases and made me wait until September for my interview even though we were current in June and had filed in April/May. So yeah - I do understand the stress - which is why I spend time here and do what I do....
I'm sure yours will work out fine!
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Yeah, I remember reading your journey last June if I remember correctly and I vaguely remember a FO in California in specific that you were having challenge with.
Back then, I hardly know anything about case number let alone AOS and I am not going to pretend I know anything about AOS now. H1B or other H visa except H5 (investment) is certainly rsiky these days when the US still has relatively high unemployment, which means the labor certificate can be a rare breed these days.
Thanks for the encouragement and especially when you share your logics and calcaultion. It is much appreciated to say the least and the same goes for SussieQQQ, Mom and others.
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Let me start off by saying this is NOT to cause panic or stress, but a simple what if. Like I said, hope is not a strategy, so please take this with a grain of salt.
Ok, so how about both Iran and Nepal will max out, 8500-(3500*2) = 1500 for ROA, Simon, I don't think exception (3) will apply this year.
For 1500 visa quota, with 150/60/None left, it will stop at 9358,9088, at 150/160/200 per thousand.
For 1700 visa quota, with 350/260/None left, it will stop at 9972,9634, at 150/160/200 per thousand.
Again, this is based on 100% response rate. So the probability of this happening is very very very low, almost impossible.
Regarding AP for Iran, news has it down to 3 months in 2 embassies....so if it takes 3 months, anyone who finish interviewing and got AP in late June is pretty risky for a Sept 30 clearance.We know the May cut off is 5275 and Simon predicted 58xx-59xx for June, so a big chuck in Iran after June whose on AP and are cutting it too close to clear. See my point about 3500 or 3300 visa for Iran (ie. 1500 or 1700 for ROA) seems highly unlikely?
Also, other good news include the DS 260 processing being slow compounded with a good portion of Iranian case are after case 4300 would further impact Iran's ability to get up to 3500 or 3000.
For your reference, I've dug up the Iranian visa issued/family member "burnt through" at 2 Apr, 22Apr and 3 May 2014. They are 629/2239, 795/3065 and 854/3212 respectively. Notice how in about 20 days, the issued jumped from 629 to 795? I'd say it's been traditionally normal for Apr to clear these APs....maybe a further speculation on how the NIV (Students, summer travel.....) visas demands pick up in May till Sept, leaving the capacities of embassies to work on AP prior.
I hope these numbers would be of service to you.
Ok, so how about both Iran and Nepal will max out, 8500-(3500*2) = 1500 for ROA, Simon, I don't think exception (3) will apply this year.
For 1500 visa quota, with 150/60/None left, it will stop at 9358,9088,
at 150/160/200 per thousand.For 1700 visa quota, with 350/260/None left, it will stop at 9972,9634,
at 150/160/200 per thousand.Again, this is based on 100% response rate. So the probability of this happening is very very very low, almost impossible.
Regarding AP for Iran, news has it down to 3 months in 2 embassies....so if it takes 3 months, anyone who finish interviewing and got AP in late June is pretty risky for a Sept 30 clearance.We know the May cut off is 5275 and Simon predicted 58xx-59xx for June, so a big chuck in Iran after June whose on AP and are cutting it too close to clear. See my point about 3500 or 3300 visa for Iran (ie. 1500 or 1700 for ROA) seems highly unlikely?
Also, other good news include the DS 260 processing being slow compounded with a good portion of Iranian case are after case 4300 would further impact Iran's ability to get up to 3500 or 3000.
For your reference, I've dug up the Iranian visa issued/family member "burnt through" at 2 Apr, 22Apr and 3 May 2014. They are 629/2239, 795/3065 and 854/3212 respectively. Notice how in about 20 days, the issued jumped from 629 to 795? I'd say it's been traditionally normal for Apr to clear these APs....maybe a further speculation on how the NIV (Students, summer travel.....) visas demands pick up in May till Sept, leaving the capacities of embassies to work on AP prior.
I hope these numbers would be of service to you.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Let me start off by saying this is NOT to cause panic or stress, but a simple what if. Like I said, hope is not a strategy, so please take this with a grain of salt.
Ok, so how about both Iran and Nepal will max out, 8500-(3500*2) = 1500 for ROA, Simon, I don't think exception (3) will apply this year.
For 1500 visa quota, with 150/60/None left, it will stop at 9358,9088,
For 1700 visa quota, with 350/260/None left, it will stop at 9972,9634,
Again, this is based on 100% response rate. So the probability of this happening is very very very low, almost impossible.
Regarding AP for Iran, news has it down to 3 months in 2 embassies....so if it takes 3 months, anyone who finish interviewing and got AP in late June is pretty risky for a Sept 30 clearance.We know the May cut off is 5275 and Simon predicted 58xx-59xx for June, so a big chuck in Iran after June whose on AP and are cutting it too close to clear. See my point about 3500 or 3300 visa for Iran (ie. 1500 or 1700 for ROA) seems highly unlikely?
Also, other good news include the DS 260 processing being slow compounded with a good portion of Iranian case are after case 4300 would further impact Iran's ability to get up to 3500 or 3000.
For your reference, I've dug up the Iranian visa issued/family member "burnt through" at 2 Apr, 22Apr and 3 May 2014. They are 629/2239, 795/3065 and 854/3212 respectively. Notice how in about 20 days, the issued jumped from 629 to 795? I'd say it's been traditionally normal for Apr to clear these APs....maybe a further speculation on how the NIV (Students, summer travel.....) visas demands pick up in May till Sept, leaving the capacities of embassies to work on AP prior.
I hope these numbers would be of service to you.
Yep - that explains the most pessimistic view. It seems about as unlikely as me dating Beyonce in the near future - but you never know....
Anxiety2015
Active Member
Wow, Beyonce + Ducati + Cool IT job in California........Hm........FSW, we need to join this camp
FSW2015
Active Member
Wow, Beyonce + Ducati + Cool IT job in California........Hm........FSW, we need to join this camp
Get me a visa and I'll join whichever camp you want!
Anxiety2015
Active Member
yes and your optimism is not unfounded.
Call me connecting the dots or whatever , Iran is in the middle of a talk with US and others countries about their nuclear program, you think the government will be cooperative all of a sudden? Even if they do, on personal clearance matters? thats hard to conceive.Am not looking to offend any Iranian here, just my speculation based on facts we know.
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Martin9
Member
The deal with Iran is not due to be formally signed until June, and it is not clear as to how far and how quickly will the sanctions be lifted. The bulk of the AP cases for Iran are due to the sanctions regime, so obviously lifting them will have an impact on AP clearance, but it may be too late for this year, on the other hand, the State Department may want to send a positive message and speed up the clearance in the wake of this deal. No way to know until it happens.
The agreement says that all past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns. However, core provisions in the UN Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation. Important restrictions on conventional arms and ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new resolution. This implies that the APs may not be speeded up any time soon.
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Kovalski
New Member
Who knows, maybe I'm an agent who scams people all over the world
Lol, don't make me laugh. Your naivety shouts out so loud that It's as if you never actually lived in a corrupt society. You say you're from SouthAfrica, I bet u used to live in a fenced community in one of those rich neighborhoods I saw in the suburbs of Joburg or Centurion or somewhere there. For people who've never been to South Africa, they should FYI there's no difference between those suburbs and suburbs in London for example (which shows how your naivety resembles that of Britsimon on this issue), so o can't blame u for not even knowing what happens in your own country.
Anyway, people are free to do what they want, they can report or not report.
There's a question you may have forgotten to ask yourself: why don't embassies do the work themselves and get rid of scammers and have to rely on the FBI instead? Duh, because if you think an embassy can act by itself, without help from the local police, you obviously don't understand how embassies operate in a sovereign country. Why can't the police in Ukraine help? Oh, wait, they can't, the country is a state of war (after years of corrupt leadership) that required EU mediation to reach a cease-fire.
U should be realistic and see local circumstances for what they are. And until I hear about TANGIBLE results from the FBI investigation, I can't encourage people to waste their time reporting without knowing their country conditions.
siliconeslinger
Member
I still remember asking on this forum if i was gonna go current or not, 13,6xx. Some dude said my number is safe due to the Nigeria exclusion plus less selectees than last year (125k vs 140k), last year's final number was 13,350 so a 300 increase isn't too much to ask for, i was initially hopeful for an interview when the first 2 vbs came out, 2500 was way ahead of last year (1800) and then as months went by my hope is lost...
I wish I hadn't been selected for dv2015 at all.. I have already told all my friends and family I'm going to the state next year, what am i gonna say to them?
And all i can do is blame nepal kcc and iran. But some "members" here keep on insisiting that it's fair for one country to stand in the way of us with high cns
Sigj.. I hope the lightning strikes again and i get selected with a cn below 10k
I wish I hadn't been selected for dv2015 at all.. I have already told all my friends and family I'm going to the state next year, what am i gonna say to them?
And all i can do is blame nepal kcc and iran. But some "members" here keep on insisiting that it's fair for one country to stand in the way of us with high cns
Sigj.. I hope the lightning strikes again and i get selected with a cn below 10k
siliconeslinger
Member
I would rather not get selected at all than getting selected with a high cn, it becomes a mind burden. Feels like you're so close to achieving something
Martin9
Member
Your number was always in the risky range. Having more or less selectees would not make any difference to the cut off number. More selectees, would only have led to more disappointed people, not less chance of getting through. Nigeria would not have had much of an impact on Asia chances either. You can blame Nepal KCC and Iran, but the fact remains that if over 2 Million people from Iran and Nepal apply for the DV, and only 11,000 get selected, then obviously those selected will have the low numbers. The KCC only needs 5000 or so visas a month, and they don't care how that is distributed within the region. It's a lottery, so chance plays the biggest part.So if you are from any part of Asia, you are within the same region. And what's more, one can not rely on the progress of any one year, to determine this year's cut off, particularly since this year has had the major change of introducing DS260 form.
siliconeslinger
Member
Still, if kcc was really trying to make it fair they could've had put nepal on a separate cutoff from the get go rather than waiting for August or July, i see no reason to not do this. I think kcc wants more Nepalese than any other Asian countries for some unknown reason, political one or not i don't know.
It's weird that the so-called "experts" here still deem it fair. Yeah i know, nepal has less chance than roa, but if they do get selected they'll get a small cn, which is much better than getting selected with a high cn. In other words Nepalese are stealing visas from roa
But then again, some people have their own understanding of the matter
And for those who are about to say "you don't like it then don't enter the lottery" your missing the point
It's weird that the so-called "experts" here still deem it fair. Yeah i know, nepal has less chance than roa, but if they do get selected they'll get a small cn, which is much better than getting selected with a high cn. In other words Nepalese are stealing visas from roa
But then again, some people have their own understanding of the matter
And for those who are about to say "you don't like it then don't enter the lottery" your missing the point
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siliconeslinger
Member
And with the way they process Iranian cases (put them all on ap) they might as well disqualify iran come next fiscal year, thus giving roa more visa allocations
Anxiety2015
Active Member
I have to agree with Martin, siliconeslinger.
I too wished to have a number below 10K but it didn't happen and what can we do about it? Nothing.
What are you going to do about it? You can make the best out of it or you can feel negative, the choice is yours to make, that you can control.
Regarding fair or not, I used to think similarly, but here what I've figured out.
Imagine we have 1000 cases in total the KCC will see 100 each month for 10 months.
Ok, so let's play "fair" shall we?
In each 100 cases, we have 33 Nepal, 33 Iran and 34 ROA (ok, you caught me, I want ROA to have 1 more since I am like you, from ROA as well), with me so far?
In this case we are "fair" right? (33 Nepal, 33 Iran and 34 ROA )
For easy explanation, each case got a visa shall we? That means in the 1st 100 cases, we have 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA.
Ok, now's there a limit, say......no single country can get more than 100 visa. Nepal and Iran are "single" countries each, ROA is made up of a lot of countries like where we are from. In other words, only Nepal and Iran are subject to this rule.
Think about the following:
1st 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
2nd 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
3rd 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
4th 100 cases 1 visas for Nepal, 1 for Iran and 34 for ROA
Original 4th 100 cases before any removal - 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA, but wait, do we need 33 for Nepal, 33 for Iran? (Remember the rule we set?no single country can get more than 100 visa), only 1 for Nepal and 1 for Iran is needed)
5th 100 cases - do we need any Nepal or Iran? No, they hit the limit, right? And ROA goes on with 34
Original 5th 100 cases before any removal - 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
In the example above, you can say they keep all the Iran and Nepal in front and that's not fair. But you can also say it's fair since they are removal as they are not necessary in most of the 4th 100 cases and for sure not inthe 5th 100 cases.
KCC could have kept those cases in to show you it's fair, but would that make a difference?
Hope this helps.
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