CEAC data update

[usken go]

You may think you're scoring points by saying I lived in a security estate. Actually, I didn't. However, my sister in law got her head blown off by an AK47 in a robbery in the jewelry store she worked in. My ex boss got shot dead when his car got hijacked in his driveway. My friend who lives near me now not only saw his mother shot dead in front of him, but also got caught up in the crossfire of a robbery of a cash in transit heist. Why do you think people live behind high walls when they can? The same as living in London, no I don't think so. And in any case, what has any of this got to with the fact of reporting fraud? Seems to me you can't justify your stance so you're trying to deflect something onto me that has nothing to do with it.

If you don't think people should 'waste time' by spending a few minutes composing an email to the fraud lines, don't be surprised that nothing happens. In Moldova they have already implemented steps to bypass the agents, steps that do not need local law enforcement but are designed so people can avoid the blackmail angles of the agents. You know what they say kovalski - if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Have a nice life.

I really think it is time to let's kovaslski,s posts pass. Heed my call Susie
Insecurity! Insecurity destroys, leaves life long scars, physical, emotional, whatever.
That must have been quotes traumatising.
We change topic.

 

[Kovalski]

You may think you're scoring points by saying I lived in a security estate. Actually, I didn't. However, my sister in law got her head blown off by an AK47 in a robbery in the jewelry store she worked in. My ex boss got shot dead when his car got hijacked in his driveway. My friend who lives near me now not only saw his mother shot dead in front of him, but also got caught up in the crossfire of a robbery of a cash in transit heist. Why do you think people live behind high walls when they can? The same as living in London, no I don't think so. And in any case, what has any of this got to with the fact of reporting fraud? Seems to me you can't justify your stance so you're trying to deflect something onto me that has nothing to do with it.

If you don't think people should 'waste time' by spending a few minutes composing an email to the fraud lines, don't be surprised that nothing happens. In Moldova they have already implemented steps to bypass the agents, steps that do not need local law enforcement but are designed so people can avoid the blackmail angles of the agents. You know what they say kovalski - if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Have a nice life.

I already have a good life, thank you.
This is no personal attack or being insensitive, but What you say happened to those people you knew is just another day in your country, nothing out of the ordinary. I wonder whether you'd give the same advice to them or to somebody who is robbed in your country today to report to the police (I'm sure u will tell them they're being part of the "solution", a solution which- in your country's case- you and I know very well may never come). If you really experienced what you say you did and hope the solution will come, then you are more naive and borderline in denial than I thought. Charity starts at home, if it sounds crazy to report a crime in your country today, don't pretend you cant understand why people in countries with similar failures in law enforcement don't bother reporting.
As for the embassy inMoldova, if they are so successful in implementing those steps why don't they communicate the same steps to other embassies as best practices? Because Ukraine is too far to know what happens in Moldova ?
My point is clear, you can have a problem with my opinion but that's YOUR problem, not mine.
Good luck convincing people in your country to believe in being part of "the solution"

 

[SusieQQQ]

I really think it is time to let's kovaslski,s posts pass. Heed my call Susie
Insecurity! Insecurity destroys, leaves life long scars, physical, emotional, whatever.
That must have been quotes traumatising.
We change topic.

You're right, I have added him to my ignore lists so I no longer see his rubbish.

It indeed was not good for me today to have to relive certain experiences and feelings.

Actually it was only Sloner before...maybe I should un-ignore Sloner as he seems to have been amusing recently judging by other posts ... Not good to have more than one person ignored at a time

 

[Kovalski]

You're right, I have added him to my ignore lists so I no longer see his rubbish.

It indeed was not good for me today to have to relive certain experiences and feelings.

Actually it was only Sloner before...maybe I should un-ignore Sloner as he seems to have been amusing recently judging by other posts ... Not good to have more than one person ignored at a time

Same here! Good riddance!! I don't need to listen to people in denial here!!

 

[Anxiety2015]

You keep missing a couple of points. The first is that the draw is random and therefore selectees will be roughly in proportion to entry. So if Indonesia had more entrants than Nepal they would have more selectees, would you still be complaining about how unfair it was or would you be satisfied seeing as it is the country you come from?
Secondly, you seem to think diversity means an equal spread of people from all eligible countries. It doesn't.

I undestand that you're angry, disappointed, frustrated, so were a lot of people last year. I'm sorry for you,but quite honestly i can't see that ranting and raving on here does you any good..if anything it seems to make it worse for you because few people seem to be seeing it from your point of view. Maybe you want to think about that, and figure out plan B. Everyone who enters DV should always have plan B?

Well said Susie,ranting and raving won't change the outcome. Focusing on what matters may, whatever that is for everyone of us.

If my cn was below 10,000 I'm sure as hell I'd get the visa as i meet all the requirements

We can't change that CN number, can we?

Everyone can have a different opinion and that's not the problem here.
However, it might be a problem if we just state our opinion without checking the fact or refuse to look at the fact other have provided while our opinion are no more than feelings.
Don't get me wrong, I feel the same frustration too as I have a number higher than 10K and from ROA as well, I just expect myself to look at the big picture,find the facts, admit my own mistake , learn from it and others.

 

[SusieQQQ]

Well said Susie,ranting and raving won't change the outcome. Focusing on what matters may, whatever that is for everyone of us.


.

And getting upset on the Internet does not help one either - as usken go pointed out to me

 

[Sensei-san]

There is so much going on in this thread

There are a lot of people who missed the cut-off like me in this forum, one member i can think of is Sloner, he is sarcastic towards the "experts" and no one seems to have taken it as an insult, i didn't mean to insult the "experts" either.

I think you prematurely developed what's become known as Sloner 's syndrome in your head.
However, the patient zero started to show symptoms at much later stage in his fiscal year.
You should try to keep it in check until July, at least.
After that being a sloner is a fair game. You will never be alone in this. In fact there might be so many sloners then, enough start a dedicated thread.

 

[Sensei-san]

I would like to apply with Britsimon for a permission to use the word "sloner" as an appellative, which would simply mean "people with high CNs" or "deeply frustrated, otherwise normal, people with high CNs".

 

[siliconeslinger]

There is so much going on in this thread

I think you prematurely developed what's become known as Sloner 's syndrome in your head.
However, the patient zero started to show symptoms at much later stage in his fiscal year.
You should try to keep it in check until July, at least.
After that being a sloner is a fair game. You will never be alone in this. In fact there might be so many sloners then, enough start a dedicated thread.

Because with the current pace and cutoff, it's not very promising. Like seriously, 4 months left and still 5225 wtf?

 

[Sensei-san]

Because with the current pace and cutoff, it's not very promising. Like seriously, 4 months left and still 5225 wtf?

It looks discouraging, I know. But, as they say in Africa - you should have faith.
And, if it doesn't help this year, it helps next year.
"So called experts"(as you put it) recommend to accept the reality, but who cares about the reality.

 

[Britsimon]

Simon, back in January you predicted a final cutoff of 16XX for OC. In light of the current data, would you revise that prediction? I've done my own prediction (several times), but I'd be interested to see yours.

I haven't looked again - obviously as we get further along we should be able to improve the accuracy of the guesses. Feel free to post yours - don't be shy!

 

[Britsimon]

I don't know why but before 2014 we didn't have this while iran and nepal holding back the cn issue... Even the pace was faster than Africa now.. Something must have happened in 2014 causing the cn to fell dramatically from current to mere 13,350. This year is gonna be even worse for sure, probably 11,000 at best

My predictions

June : 5800
July : 6400
August : 7200 (nepal hits the limit)
September : 11,000

They selected more people. No mystery.

 

[Britsimon]

ok, and where do you get the 40,40,20?

If you look at the 1st 2000 cases, it's like 55,40,26, have you looked at that?

Now, regarding what you said about not spread evenly, let's think of the following.
If you take my 1000 cases example, let's say they are 1000 balls and we put them in a bag, you draw 100 at the time.
Can you make sure it's even spread everytime? No way if you draw only 1 time.
If you draw millions of times, it might average out and get to even spread, right? But you don't get to a million times, do you?

Further, consider this. There's family members too, can you force someone to have more family member when they get selected to get to even spread? No, you can't force people to have a family or add a kid.
Can you force people to return their DS260 form? No
Can you force people to show up at interview? No
But all we see is the product of a mix of all the above. If you work for KCC, can you get to and show people an even spread? Please answer honestly here....

KCC like any another organization hire analyst and statisticians, not magicians.

Now don't forget, I am from ROA just like you and I am a nunber over 10K just like you.

The 40 40 20 is more like the DV2104 spread and your 55,40,26 sounds like responses with derivatives. If you look at entries you should see something like 34:32:32 (case numbers). The split has changes this year because of entry changes.

 

[Britsimon]

Frankly it's no longer "diversity" when the majority of Asian visas are taken up by Nepalese.

Also th law says no one country can take more than 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. I'm sure nepal has hit the limit, about time nepal gets disqualified

There is no law that says a country cannot take more than 50k visas from the DV lottery OR from other sources.

 

[Britsimon]

Some "expert" on this forum once said that for each 1000 cases, Iran and nepal get 80% and ROA get the remaining 20%. Look it up.

And this special countries problem only happens to asia region. Af has Egypt and Ethiopia and guess what, they're segregated from the African cutoff, problem solved right? why can't they do the same to asia? Go figure. If kcc didn't separate Egypt and Ethiopia from the rest of africa, af would have similar cn to asia

On a separate note, may i know where you're from and your cn more specifically?

I'm from Indonesia and my cn is 13,6xx. Totally hopeless, I shouldn't have even bothered filling out the ds260 form.

if i get selected again in dv16 with a cn below 10,000 I'll donate $500 to a charity

What is this "attitude" you have? I am not responsible for the process of the lottery you entered. I have on several occasions tried to explain things to you but you persist in staying angry, bitter and misinformed. However, the LEAST you could do it show a little decency to those that have tried to help you understand. Feel free to stay ignorant if you prefer.

 

[Britsimon]

@siliconeslinger,

Your sarcasm about some "expert", some "member" isn't lost on anyone. I fee people like you are the reason it's becoming more and more difficult for humanity to act in a decent manner towards one another, or for strangers to carry out random acts of kindness towards others. When you first joined the forum, you were more than happy for the so called "expert" to give you a break down of the DV process, and I'm willing to bet you devoured everything the "experts" had to say religiously.

You've however become so disillusioned of late by the fear of not making the cut-off, and by the fact that the "experts" wouldn't ascribe to your blaming games you've decided it's okay to sarcastic towards the "experts". I suppose it's the expert's fault you've told your entire family and friends you're moving to the U.S. when you haven't even attended an interview, talk less of being issued with a visa. Counting your chicks before the eggs hatched! Who does that in this time and age when there are so no many unknowns to contend with!!!

It is perfectly okay to not give a hoot as to what the "expert" has said or has to say, but please keep your sarcasm to yourself. You can consider this a friendly warning.

That is exactly what I was thinking after catching up with a few of these childish posts. Thank you Mom for calling that out.

 

[Britsimon]

There are a lot of people who missed the cut-off like me in this forum, one member i can think of is Sloner, he is sarcastic towards the "experts" and no one seems to have taken it as an insult, i didn't mean to insult the "experts" either.

Yes - as Mom says - I have always enjoyed my sparring with Sloner - he had a point of view - and he was horribly wrong - but he was never mean spirited or disrespectful - and guess what - he had a case number that missed out so he had reason to be bitter too. So really - enough of your attitude...

 

[Britsimon]

I would like to apply with Britsimon for a permission to use the word "sloner" as an appellation, which would simply mean "people with high CNs" or "deeply frustrated, otherwise normal, people with high CNs".

No - Sloner was much more interesting than that - and he carefully protected the fact that he was a selectee until after his goose was cooked. So Slonerisms and Slonerish became synonymous with bad mad and unintelligible comments - but he never posted from a perspective of someone with a high CN.

There have been some very NICE and DESERVING people with high CNs - Rafikbo, Veronice and so on - all of whom took their massive disappointment on the chin with dignity and without blaming anyone here. Sillymudslinger would do better to follow their example.

 

[SusieQQQ]

There have been some very NICE and DESERVING people with high CNs - Rafikbo, Veronice and so on - all of whom took their massive disappointment on the chin with dignity and without blaming anyone here..

Very good point.

 

[angelusj]

Sometimes, ignorance is bliss...how do you treat a child who is throwing a tantrum? same thing applicable to unreasonable whiners