connectedspace
Active Member
Simon, back in January you predicted a final cutoff of 16XX for OC. In light of the current data, would you revise that prediction? I've done my own prediction (several times), but I'd be interested to see yours.
Your number was always in the risky range. Having more or less selectees would not make any difference to the cut off number. More selectees, would only have led to more disappointed people, not less chance of getting through. Nigeria would not have had much of an impact on Asia chances either. You can blame Nepal KCC and Iran, but the fact remains that if over 2 Million people from Iran and Nepal apply for the DV, and only 11,000 get selected, then obviously those selected will have the low numbers. The KCC only needs 5000 or so visas a month, and they don't care how that is distributed within the region. It's a lottery, so chance plays the biggest part.So if you are from any part of Asia, you are within the same region. And what's more, one can not rely on the progress of any one year, to determine this year's cut off, particularly since this year has had the major change of introducing DS260 form.
I have to agree with Martin, siliconeslinger.
I too wished to have a number below 10K but it didn't happen and what can we do about it? Nothing.
What are you going to do about it? You can make the best out of it or you can feel negative, the choice is yours to make, that you can control.
Regarding fair or not, I used to think similarly, but here what I've figured out.
Imagine we have 1000 cases in total the KCC will see 100 each month for 10 months.
Ok, so let's play "fair" shall we?
In each 100 cases, we have 33 Nepal, 33 Iran and 34 ROA (ok, you caught me, I want ROA to have 1 more since I am like you, from ROA as well), with me so far?
In this case we are "fair" right? (33 Nepal, 33 Iran and 34 ROA )
For easy explanation, each case got a visa shall we? That means in the 1st 100 cases, we have 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA.
Ok, now's there a limit, say......no single country can get more than 100 visa. Nepal and Iran are "single" countries each, ROA is made up of a lot of countries like where we are from. In other words, only Nepal and Iran are subject to this rule.
Think about the following:
1st 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
2nd 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
3rd 100 cases 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
4th 100 cases 1 visas for Nepal, 1 for Iran and 34 for ROA
Original 4th 100 cases before any removal - 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA, but wait, do we need 33 for Nepal, 33 for Iran? (Remember the rule we set?no single country can get more than 100 visa), only 1 for Nepal and 1 for Iran is needed)
5th 100 cases - do we need any Nepal or Iran? No, they hit the limit, right? And ROA goes on with 34
Original 5th 100 cases before any removal - 33 visas for Nepal, 33 for Iran and 34 for ROA
In the example above, you can say they keep all the Iran and Nepal in front and that's not fair. But you can also say it's fair since they are removal as they are not necessary in most of the 4th 100 cases and for sure not inthe 5th 100 cases.
KCC could have kept those cases in to show you it's fair, but would that make a difference?
Hope this helps.
ok, and where do you get the 40,40,20?
If you look at the 1st 2000 cases, it's like 55,40,26, have you looked at that?
Now, regarding what you said about not spread evenly, let's think of the following.
If you take my 1000 cases example, let's say they are 1000 balls and we put them in a bag, you draw 100 at the time.
Can you make sure it's even spread everytime? No way if you draw only 1 time.
If you draw millions of times, it might average out and get to even spread, right? But you don't get to a million times, do you?
Further, consider this. There's family members too, can you force someone to have more family member when they get selected to get to even spread? No, you can't force people to have a family or add a kid.
Can you force people to return their DS260 form? No
Can you force people to show up at interview? No
But all we see is the product of a mix of all the above. If you work for KCC, can you get to and show people an even spread? Please answer honestly here....
KCC like any another organization hire analyst and statisticians, not magicians.
Now don't forget, I am from ROA just like you and I am a nunber over 10K just like you.
Some "expert" on this forum once said that for each 1000 cases, Iran and nepal get 80% and ROA get the remaining 20%. Look it up.
And this special countries problem only happens to asia region. Af has Egypt and Ethiopia and guess what, they're segregated from the African cutoff, problem solved right? why can't they do the same to asia? Go figure. If kcc didn't separate Egypt and Ethiopia from the rest of africa, af would have similar cn to asia
On a separate note, may i know where you're from and your cn more specifically?
I'm from Indonesia and my cn is 13,6xx. Totally hopeless, I shouldn't have even bothered filling out the ds260 form.
if i get selected again in dv16 with a cn below 10,000 I'll donate $500 to a charity
Thank you. That is very kind of you to say so, but I'm no expert in this area, and others have devoted a lot of time and effort on data analysis and can back up their predictions with numbers. I can't do that with any degree of credibility. On the whole I agree with my fellow Brit, Simon . It is unlikely that Asia will go as high as it did last year, and the deciding factor in the final cut off will be the progress of Iranian APs and the recent deal with US may have a bearing on that. However having said that, there are also new factors in this year's process that were not there previously, namely the situation in Yemen and Syria would both make it difficult for the selectees from those countries to attend interviews and would also more likely put them on AP so a limited number will be freed up for others.Hi Martin, I've been enjoying your post and how you provide depth and insight you've provided.
Mind sharing your thought on cut-off and VB progression for Asia?
Frankly it's no longer "diversity" when the majority of Asian visas are taken up by Nepalese.
Also th law says no one country can take more than 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. I'm sure nepal has hit the limit, about time nepal gets disqualified
Thank you. That is very kind of you to say so, but I'm no expert in this area, and others have devoted a lot of time and effort on data analysis and can back up their predictions with numbers. I can't do that with any degree of credibility. On the whole I agree with my fellow Brit, Simon . It is unlikely that Asia will go as high as it did last year, and the deciding factor in the final cut off will be the progress of Iranian APs and the recent deal with US may have a bearing on that. However having said that, there are also new factors in this year's process that were not there previously, namely the situation in Yemen and Syria would both make it difficult for the selectees from those countries to attend interviews and would also more likely put them on AP so a limited number will be freed up for others.
Who knows, maybe I'm an agent who scams people all over the world
Lol, don't make me laugh. Your naivety shouts out so loud that It's as if you never actually lived in a corrupt society. You say you're from SouthAfrica, I bet u used to live in a fenced community in one of those rich neighborhoods I saw in the suburbs of Joburg or Centurion or somewhere there. For people who've never been to South Africa, they should FYI there's no difference between those suburbs and suburbs in London for example (which shows how your naivety resembles that of Britsimon on this issue), so o can't blame u for not even knowing what happens in your own country.
Anyway, people are free to do what they want, they can report or not report.
There's a question you may have forgotten to ask yourself: why don't embassies do the work themselves and get rid of scammers and have to rely on the FBI instead? Duh, because if you think an embassy can act by itself, without help from the local police, you obviously don't understand how embassies operate in a sovereign country. Why can't the police in Ukraine help? Oh, wait, they can't, the country is a state of war (after years of corrupt leadership) that required EU mediation to reach a cease-fire.
U should be realistic and see local circumstances for what they are. And until I hear about TANGIBLE results from the FBI investigation, I can't encourage people to waste their time reporting without knowing their country conditions.
I still remember asking on this forum if i was gonna go current or not, 13,6xx. Some dude said my number is safe due to the Nigeria exclusion plus less selectees than last year (125k vs 140k), last year's final number was 13,350 so a 300 increase isn't too much to ask for, i was initially hopeful for an interview when the first 2 vbs came out, 2500 was way ahead of last year (1800) and then as months went by my hope is lost...
I wish I hadn't been selected for dv2015 at all.. I have already told all my friends and family I'm going to the state next year, what am i gonna say to them?
And all i can do is blame nepal kcc and iran. But some "members" here keep on insisiting that it's fair for one country to stand in the way of us with high cns
Sigj.. I hope the lightning strikes again and i get selected with a cn below 10k
You may think you're scoring points by saying I lived in a security estate. Actually, I didn't. However, my sister in law got her head blown off by an AK47 in a robbery in the jewelry store she worked in. My ex boss got shot dead when his car got hijacked in his driveway. My friend who lives near me now not only saw his mother shot dead in front of him, but also got caught up in the crossfire of a robbery of a cash in transit heist. Why do you think people live behind high walls when they can? The same as living in London, no I don't think so. And in any case, what has any of this got to with the fact of reporting fraud? Seems to me you can't justify your stance so you're trying to deflect something onto me that has nothing to do with it.
If you don't think people should 'waste time' by spending a few minutes composing an email to the fraud lines, don't be surprised that nothing happens. In Moldova they have already implemented steps to bypass the agents, steps that do not need local law enforcement but are designed so people can avoid the blackmail angles of the agents. You know what they say kovalski - if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem. Have a nice life.
Frankly it's no longer "diversity" when the majority of Asian visas are taken up by Nepalese.
Also th law says no one country can take more than 50,000 visas for the past 5 years. I'm sure nepal has hit the limit, about time nepal gets disqualified
Really South Africa that bad? I thought i had it worst in my country, oh. My. Thank god your American now