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CEAC data update

Britsimon said:
Who said anything about a big proportion of the interviews being in September? Once Nepal and Iran are exhausted - the rest of Asia only have one third of the cases per thousand - so the jumps can be 3 times larger without having 3 times the interviews.
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Iran and exhausted?

You mean they will see all Iran cases yet not enough visa are produced due to AP, correct?
As you have mentioned, Iran cases will mostly exhaust by 8800.

If you think July is around 69xx, let's assume Aug is the big jump again like last year. Knowing the capacity allows 3800 CN ( last yr from 8900 to 12700), that leaves Aug at 10700 except Nepal give or take.

Of course the case density between 9000-10000 is different, it's drops to about 600 cases per 1000CN, then to 300 from 10000 onwards.Let's say ROA needs another jump to finish off, they will need another 500-600 cases in Sept, which is about another 1500-2000 CN. Don't think this is unlikely due to the traditional small adjustment in the last month(650 CN jump in Sept 2014?
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Iran and exhausted?

You mean they will see all Iran cases yet not enough visa are produced due to AP, correct?
As you have mentioned, Iran cases will mostly exhaust by 8800.

If you think July is around 69xx, let's assume Aug is the big jump again like last year. Knowing the capacity allows 3800 CN ( last yr from 8900 to 12700), that leaves Aug at 10700 except Nepal give or take.

Of course the case density between 9000-10000 is different, it's drops to about 600 cases per 1000CN, then to 300 from 10000 onwards.Let's say ROA needs another jump to finish off, they will need another 500-600 cases in Sept, which is about another 1500-2000 CN. Don't think this is unlikely due to the traditional small adjustment in the last month(650 CN jump in Sept 2014?
Click to expand...

I really wish 108** will be current in August, if my interview was delayed until September, I'd risk missing the national exam to graduate from med school, as I have to travel to another country to do the interview.
I can't help being frustrated, I remember Simon once saying I was "bloody silly" :p for worrying about my number, LOL, of course that was when the VB progress was more promising...
Anyway hope it will end happily for all of us!
 
FSW2015 said:
I really wish 108** will be current in August, if my interview was delayed until September, I'd risk missing the national exam to graduate from med school, as I have to travel to another country to do the interview.
I can't help being frustrated, I remember Simon once saying I was "bloody silly" :p for worrying about my number, LOL, of course that was when the VB progress was more promising...
Anyway hope it will end happily for all of us!
Click to expand...

That makes the 2 of us, as I recall Simon and SusieQQQ asking me to relax and stop worrying over nothing.And I believe they have good intention in saying that, it just gets a bit challenging when you are in thick of it. After all , we each face a unique set of situation.

The truth is this process takes effort and patience.'Bloody silly' or not depends on your position and I am sure you will be in such position to ask other to stop worrying next year.Caught my drift?

Combining the idea of Simon, NaraLB and all others, I think the final cutoff would be at least 12xxx and I would go further to say the quota are unlikely to be filled before then.Ok, except Iran clears AP much faster or the quota is not 8500 ...you get the idea. I am sure you know the exceptions are highly unlikely and we see no evidence as such.

1 final point about the big jump, which I am certain it's going to happen, would include the 3-4000 CN range.In other words, it makes no difference if you are 8000 or 12000 for ROA if you are called within the same month.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
That makes the 2 of us, as I recall Simon and SusieQQQ asking me to relax and stop worrying over nothing.And I believe they have good intention in saying that, it just gets a bit challenging when you are in thick of it. After all , we each face a unique set of situation.

The truth is this process takes effort and patience.'Bloody silly' or not depends on your position and I am sure you will be in such position to ask other to stop worrying next year.Caught my drift?

Combining the idea of Simon, NaraLB and all others, I think the final cutoff would be at least 12xxx and I would go further to say the quota are unlikely to be filled before then.Ok, except Iran clears AP much faster or the quota is not 8500 ...you get the idea. I am sure you know the exceptions are highly unlikely and we see no evidence as such.

1 final point about the big jump, which I am certain it's going to happen, would include the 3-4000 CN range.In other words, it makes no difference if you are 8000 or 12000 for ROA if you are called within the same month.
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Thank you for your reply, it does need a lot of patience, especially the high CNs like us.

Regarding what Simon said, of course I was just messing around. The truth is I'm grateful for his advice and for giving us what I like to call "realistic optimism". I'm sure many people wouldn't have made it without him. There were so many variables this year and no one can really tell how it will play out, but my only wish is for a happy ending!
 
FSW2015 said:
I really wish 108** will be current in August, if my interview was delayed until September, I'd risk missing the national exam to graduate from med school, as I have to travel to another country to do the interview.
I can't help being frustrated, I remember Simon once saying I was "bloody silly" :p for worrying about my number, LOL, of course that was when the VB progress was more promising...
Anyway hope it will end happily for all of us!
Click to expand...

I still think you would be bloody silly for worrying about that number. I really don't think Iran are suddenly going to take 3000+ visas - and unless they do - your number is solid.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Iran and exhausted?

You mean they will see all Iran cases yet not enough visa are produced due to AP, correct?
As you have mentioned, Iran cases will mostly exhaust by 8800.

If you think July is around 69xx, let's assume Aug is the big jump again like last year. Knowing the capacity allows 3800 CN ( last yr from 8900 to 12700), that leaves Aug at 10700 except Nepal give or take.

Of course the case density between 9000-10000 is different, it's drops to about 600 cases per 1000CN, then to 300 from 10000 onwards.Let's say ROA needs another jump to finish off, they will need another 500-600 cases in Sept, which is about another 1500-2000 CN. Don't think this is unlikely due to the traditional small adjustment in the last month(650 CN jump in Sept 2014?
Click to expand...

Yes - they will interview Iranian cases to the end because not all will go on AP.

The big jump can only happen when Nepal is limited. So, whilst that could happen in July, I suspect it will be in August.

The way to calculate this all is to take Nepal and Iran out of the mix.

Nepal gets 3500 and let's assume Iran takes 2500 - which I think is the MAX they could take. That leaves 2500 for ROA.

Up to now, ROA have taken 489 visas and have 121 on AP. So - let's say the will have got 580 from 4300. That would mean they are getting 134 per thousand. That is very low - but could be right. Let's assume they have been badly affected by the DS260 backlog so they will mature to 150/160 per thousand. That means CN of 15XXX! So - even 200 per thousand for ROA would not be terrible.

Again - all hinging on Iran...
 
Anxiety2015 said:
That makes the 2 of us, as I recall Simon and SusieQQQ asking me to relax and stop worrying over nothing.And I believe they have good intention in saying that, it just gets a bit challenging when you are in thick of it. After all , we each face a unique set of situation.

The truth is this process takes effort and patience.'Bloody silly' or not depends on your position and I am sure you will be in such position to ask other to stop worrying next year.Caught my drift?

Combining the idea of Simon, NaraLB and all others, I think the final cutoff would be at least 12xxx and I would go further to say the quota are unlikely to be filled before then.Ok, except Iran clears AP much faster or the quota is not 8500 ...you get the idea. I am sure you know the exceptions are highly unlikely and we see no evidence as such.

1 final point about the big jump, which I am certain it's going to happen, would include the 3-4000 CN range.In other words, it makes no difference if you are 8000 or 12000 for ROA if you are called within the same month.
Click to expand...


I think you were told to stop worrying back in JULY 2014!
 
Anxiety2015 said:
That makes the 2 of us, as I recall Simon and SusieQQQ asking me to relax and stop worrying over nothing.And I believe they have good intention in saying that, it just gets a bit challenging when you are in thick of it. After all , we each face a unique set of situation.

The truth is this process takes effort and patience.'Bloody silly' or not depends on your position and I am sure you will be in such position to ask other to stop worrying next year.Caught my drift?

Combining the idea of Simon, NaraLB and all others, I think the final cutoff would be at least 12xxx and I would go further to say the quota are unlikely to be filled before then.Ok, except Iran clears AP much faster or the quota is not 8500 ...you get the idea. I am sure you know the exceptions are highly unlikely and we see no evidence as such.

1 final point about the big jump, which I am certain it's going to happen, would include the 3-4000 CN range.In other words, it makes no difference if you are 8000 or 12000 for ROA if you are called within the same month.
Click to expand...

Not me, I have never given any opinion on Asian numbers as far as I can recall...?
 
Britsimon said:
I still think you would be bloody silly for worrying about that number. I really don't think Iran are suddenly going to take 3000+ visas - and unless they do - your number is solid.
Click to expand...

Thanks a lot! Although I'm constantly assured by your opinion and analyses and all the facts you state which completely make sense. This is life-changing for me and there is always a tiny shred of worry. Your words are a relief. So thank you for going the many extra miles for us!
 
SusieQQQ said:
In that case, it's not the country I referred to before, which was Moldova. See, there is a pattern of the U.S. trying to stop scammers , but encouraging people not to report scammers works against that happening in your country ...
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Hahaha @SusieQQQ I wouldn't be surprised if at some point we hear that very few people (if any at all) actually contacted the FBI to provide information and contribute to the investigation, BUT I commend the government's efforts in dealing with scammers.
You still haven't understood what I said about reporting, AGAIN here is my opinion: people can report or not report its up to them, but if somebody reports, they shouldn't expect too much from the embassy (I think reporting for the sake of just reporting-without the report resulting in action from the embassy-is not very productive).
As for that happening in my country or many other countries (just because embassies in 3 other countries are stepping up their efforts), I think we'll wait a very very long time. I'm not a pessimistic person, I'm just a very realistic person, and I know that embassies only take action when problems blow out of proportion.
 
Britsimon said:
Who said anything about a big proportion of the interviews being in September? Once Nepal and Iran are exhausted - the rest of Asia only have one third of the cases per thousand - so the jumps can be 3 times larger without having 3 times the interviews.
Click to expand...

Thanks for clarifying, I have two questions that just crossed my mind:

1. When KCC has to determine the last couple of VBs, do they take into account that a certain percentage of Iranian applicants will go to AP, so as to allow more interviews for ROA?
2. Do we know anything about the density of ROA, compared to that of last year? I'm trying to estimate how much of a jump we can see after Nepal is limited.
 
Anxiety2015 said:
Right, and what I am trying to speculate is whether KCC will put a special cut off on Nepal in July instead of Aug if the case number is low enough for Nepal to max out around 7xxx and ROA and Iran is no where close to what's required to fill the quota.
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I really hope so, but since this is KCC, it's highly unlikely.
 
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