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CEAC data (Full) 9-1-2014

vladek15425 said:
Its been a long walk to freedom like mandela says pal :)
I wish sloner could join us to our small party....

But I guess things just can't work out like in our dreams :(
Anyway, I here by grant you all my credit, all your predictions were the most accurate most plausible you name it !....
I dare any one to contest or contredict...
I'm giving it to you simon :)

You were Right. From the start about the numbers better than all of us ...

Ps: I was about to do a bad thing to you today, if you didn't succeed, just pm franky :D
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Oh! Wow! V was gonna go medieval on you big time! :D

MRS Simon wouldn't like the outcome ;)
 
Britsimon said:
View attachment 141
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What truly is disconcerting in my mind is the high proportion of AP cases, still pending beginning of September:

pending AP cases as % of ISSUED
AF 12.4%
EU 5.6%
AS 21.9%
SA 4.3%
OC 5.5%

Global 11.0%

This is specifically unfortunate as, as Britsimon has pointed out, there won't be a high enough number of visa available during the remainder of the month to get even close to 5,149 pending cases allocated. Really very sad.
 
EURO2014 said:
What really is disconcerting in my mind is the high proportion of AP cases, still pending beginning of September:

pending AP cases as % of ISSUED
AF 12.4%
EU 5.6%
AS 21.9%
SA 4.3%
OC 5.5%

Global 11.0%

This is specifically unfortunate as, as Britsimon pointed out, there won't be a high enough number of visa available during the remainder of the month to get even close to 5,149 pending cases allocated. Truly sad.
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Dead right. AS must be largely Iranian cases. I guess some of those will not make it - and that would mean they don't even get close to their number from last year!
 
I'm from AS and am a bit worried about the visa availability. My interview will be early next week. When did it reach the cutoff visa limit last year or maybe predicted cutoff reached date this year? So is there any chance to reach more than 50k allocated from the NACARA visas?
I'm also wondering how many visas are issued or interviews scheduled roughly on a daily basis either globally or according to region. Maybe somebody here can estimate on this.
Do rescheduled appointments really reduce chances?
 
chimarsinau said:
I'm from AS and am a bit worried about the visa availability. My interview will be early next week. When did it reach the cutoff visa limit last year or maybe predicted cutoff reached date this year? So is there any chance to reach more than 50k allocated from the NACARA visas?
I'm also wondering how many visas are issued or interviews scheduled roughly on a daily basis either globally or according to region. Maybe somebody here can estimate on this.
Do rescheduled appointments really reduce chances?
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Well the data is all there. They issued 6000 visas in 1 month.

Last year and this year are two TOTALLY different scenarios. We don't know how far the AS region or world will go, but some NACARA allowance is a certainty - the question is how far, unfortunately we will only know the cutoff once it has happened.
 
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Britsimon said:
Dead right. AS must be largely Iranian cases. I guess some of those will not make it - and that would mean they don't even get close to their number from last year!
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Hi Simon, Thanks for new CEAS analyse .As i know about 2270 visas has been issued for iranian till end of Augest so can we expect they issue around 123o visas during September? which mainly will be A.P cases (totally around 3500) .
 
Blue 1 said:
Hi Simon, Thanks for new CEAS analyse .As i know about 2270 visas has been issued for iranian till end of Augest so can we expect they issue around 123o visas during September? which mainly will be A.P cases (totally around 3500) .
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Well those AP cases are competing with other AP cases, so it is likely that not all the 1230 will get issued.....
 
Britsimon said:
Yes I was thinking that about Sloner this am. You are right to credit him - it was his lunatic ramblings that made you and I (and some others I believe) give in and accept that there could be an increase in EU with a corresponding decrease in AF. I think you and I talked about 19k as a max for EU and 21/22 for AF whereas Sloner was going with a full reversal (EU 22/AF 19 or thereabouts). I think our numbers will end up about right.

Amen on the reading - the book of Las Vegas is one of my personal favorites.
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Broken clock is right twice a day.
 
Britsimon said:
Yes I was thinking that about Sloner this am. You are right to credit him - it was his lunatic ramblings that made you and I (and some others I believe) give in and accept that there could be an increase in EU with a corresponding decrease in AF. I think you and I talked about 19k as a max for EU and 21/22 for AF whereas Sloner was going with a full reversal (EU 22/AF 19 or thereabouts). I think our numbers will end up about right.

Amen on the reading - the book of Las Vegas is one of my personal favorites.
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No. I gave Europe 19500-20000 visas. Africa, first in August 2013 17,000-18,000. I then added up to 19000-20000.:)
 
Sloner said:
No. I gave Europe 19500-20000 visas. Africa, first in August 2013 17,000-18,000. I then added up to 19000-20000.:)
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Hmmmm - not quite as wrong as I remember it - but still wrong.

It's been fun though Sloner - are you going to carry on contributing next year?
 
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