Big Retrogression of Family Priority Date Cutoff in January 2011

Yes, it was a huge one. But I don't understand how it works.. If they have processed all the PDs for the past X years, how do they suddenly go 'back in time' X years?

I mean, for F1, they were on Feb 2006. Meaning they have done all of 2005. Now, the PD goes back to Jan 2005... So, what else is there to do in 2005? And how does an increase in applications in 2010 affect the processing of 2005-6?

It is terribly dismaying for people who were thinking they were close..
 
eas9898 said:
Yes, it was a huge one. But I don't understand how it works.. If they have processed all the PDs for the past X years, how do they suddenly go 'back in time' X years?

I mean, for F1, they were on Feb 2006. Meaning they have done all of 2005. Now, the PD goes back to Jan 2005... So, what else is there to do in 2005? And how does an increase in applications in 2010 affect the processing of 2005-6?

It is terribly dismaying for people who were thinking they were close..
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The PD listed in the Visa Bulletin starts out as the best guess based on the information available at the time the guess is made. They consider how many petitions were approved in the past and using statistics of past actual visa useage they see what's on hand and what date they should publish in order for enough people in the pool to apply for enough visas to provide sufficient workflow. Once in a while they guess wrong and open up a window and get MORE applications than were expected and have to slow things down by moving the PD back.
 
I've heard that argument, but I still don't quite get it..

If you are in line and take a number at a store, and you have number 40, and they are processing 30.. Then they call 31, 32, etc.. Then when they get to 38, a bunch of people come in and take numbers, and they go back to 29.. How does that happen?
 
eas9898 said:
If you are in line and take a number at a store, and you have number 40, and they are processing 30.. Then they call 31, 32, etc.. Then when they get to 38, a bunch of people come in and take numbers, and they go back to 29.. How does that happen?
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Your metaphor isn't quite right. Yes, you take a number. But pretend the wait is several hours, and you can leave the store while you're waiting. If you miss your number when it's called, that's OK too so long as you come back and they're serving someone with a later number than you, you can get next in line.

In such an environment, they can advance the number farther than necessary in order to keep a steady stream of orders being placed. If folks start streaming back to the store because they hear that the wait isn't five hours but is not one or two hours, they'll need to move the number back to keep the number of orders limited.
 
In a previous announcement they said they moved the dates forward with a large jump because eligible individuals were not showing up to apply for AOS or immigrant visas. Perhaps many of them in F2A stopped paying attention to the visa bulletin because they weren't expecting their PD to become current before 2012, and consulates may have been slow to notify the numerous people abroad who became eligible when the bulletin jumped forward. But now the word has finally gotten out to them and the AOS and DS-230 applications are flooding in.
 
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If memory serves me correctly, several of us had predicted this would happen after the forward jump in 2A earlier this year. I also remember such soothsayers were flamed for sounding negative and dampening the enthusiasm of GC holders waiting for their spouses and children. Not to sound insensitive, but this was expected. Sheer mathematics and logic working together to result in this retrogression.
 
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I just applied I-130 and I-485 for my wife (who is here on student visa) on November 26th. I have received NOA (I-797) for those applications; and I was hoping that we may get this GC in 6 to 7 months from now. Now since the PD is moved to Jan 2005, does this mean that we will not get our GC approved until this PD becomes current (which nobody knows when)?

Thanks,
Rizwan
 
Yes Saif, I am a US citizen. Oh, thanks for the information - I was unnecessarily worried.

I need to clarify my understanding of what these categories are: F1, F2A, F2B, F3 AND F4. I carefully read these on USCIS website now and it seems like spouse, parents and unmarried children (under 21) do not come under any of these categories. Which means, PDs do not affect immediate relatives of US citizens. Is that correct?

Thanks,
 
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BlueSapphire said:
Yes Saif, I am a US citizen. Oh, thanks for the information - I was unnecessarily worried.

I need to clarify my understanding of what these categories are: F1, F2A, F2B, F3 AND F4. I carefully read these on USCIS website now and it seems like spouse, parents and unmarried children (under 21) do not come under any of these categories. Which means, PDs do not affect immediate relatives of US citizens. Is that correct.

Thanks,
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Immediate Relatives of a USC (IR and CR categories) have a legally "immediately available" immigrant visa. No priority date, less waiting.
 
Thanks BigJoe for your comment. What are IR and CR categories anyway? I don't know many of these immigration related terms though I became a citizen here. :(
 
BlueSapphire said:
Thanks BigJoe for your comment. What are IR and CR categories anyway? I don't know many of these immigration related terms though I became a citizen here. :(
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Immediate Relative and Conditional Resident. A Conditional Resident is an Immediate Relative based on marriage where the marriage is less than 2 years old.
 
Retrogression question

Are you sure that Priority Dates that WERE being processed have actually been processed?

For example, in the F4 category: there should be no applicants with Priority Dates BEFORE January 1, 2002 because that PD was being processed per the Nov & Dec 2010 and Jan 2011 Visa Bulletins.

Now, it shows PD 1/1/2000 as of February and March 2011.

I just want to know HOW we KNOW for sure?
 
Priority dates moved forward a lot in 2010 because the eligible applicants were not showing up to apply for AOS or the consular interviews. The forward movement wasn't because they were actually processed; it was because their cases were being skipped over due to the applicants' inaction. But apparently they are showing up and applying now, so they moved the dates back.
 
myBrotherWaits said:
For example, in the F4 category: there should be no applicants with Priority Dates BEFORE January 1, 2002 because that PD was being processed per the Nov & Dec 2010 and Jan 2011 Visa Bulletins.
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That's not true - they can advance priority dates forward to keep the pipeline filled. For example, if the priority date for a particular category is C, does that mean there are no pending cases? ;)
 
I'm not sure if I have been affected by this or not...I am the beneficiary of of family based GC (4th category) and i130 was approved in september 2010 and my priority date is march 29th 2000 which was current at the time (i think according to visa bulletin it was 06/2001) but due to various delays in getting documents ready including Police clearance from the indian consulate...I am still on Packet 3 stage (forgive me, i dont know what the new term for this is) I have already paid the immigrant visa fee before the regression..Just wondering if by some miracle I wont be affected by the PD regression
 
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