Rayme
Registered Users (C)
hello kayend i saw a problem in the data especially nepal... AP of Nepalese cases got decreased from 210 to 162 still why the issue and refused are still same???????????
Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept
- Thread starter Kayend
- Start date
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Asia take +- 20% of the 50k available visas.
So may be about 1000 visas from nacara will be rellocated if its fully 5k!
That's just an assumption.
Because I believe if nacara is back to us it will be around 3.5k....
So may be about 1000 visas from nacara will be rellocated if its fully 5k!
That's just an assumption.
Because I believe if nacara is back to us it will be around 3.5k....
no one knows.. but based on this link http://travel.state.gov/content/dam...013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf
no one country in Asia issued more than 3518 Visas (Bangladesh in 2007). I hope they'll allocated it for the rest of Asian High CNs.
Kayend
Active Member
What data you based on? I don't get you.
I am using the latest Asia CEAC data.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ee0axvw05yz6eb8/Asia622.csv
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
Just check nepal issue and Ap and refused the AP has significantly gkne down in its number within some week time but there was simply no change in issue and refused data...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Actually I just wanted to clarify why this happens.
An individual within a region should have the same chance as every other individual within the region - right? Well imagine two countries where one country (country A) has 1000 people that enter the lottery and the next country (country B) has 100,000. In that case, the country B should have 100 selectees for every 1 from country A - right?
Well that is exactly what is happening with countries like Iran and Nepal. They have far higher entries than other countries in Asia. So - countries like that get limited in the draw process - they get cutoff when the reach some point (like 6000 selectees including family). If they had 10k selectees, that means 4000 would be "disqualified", never being told they were winners. Obviously the limit is imposed after the first 6000 selectees for a country - and that is why some countries have a lot of selectees in lower number ranges. Early CEAC data showed Iran were getting 40 winners, Nepal 40 winners and rest of Asia combined were getting 20 out of every 100 selectees. At some point the 6000 limit stops further selectees appearing for a country - and once Nepal and Iran are out it means their 80 cases per 100 are no longer there - so the VB can move much faster.
You might think this is unfair - but it is based on the number of entries by each country. Actually if anything, the artifiial limit means that an entrant from the special countries has LESS chance of being a selectee than others, but on the plus side if they do get the 1NL - they are more likely to have a low number. Incidentally - the artificial limit makes sense for a country that could hit the 7% limit with 6k selectees BUT very few countries can do that. A country needs a high response rate and a high success rate. Nepal is one such country. IN 2013 they only had around 4k selectees but achieved 3300 visas. However, AF countries (with lower response rates and lower success rates) cannot hit the 7% limit even with 6k selectees.
Kayend
Active Member
Nepal up to July it has 3464 and remember KDU data for August is not in yet. So the # is tally.
Stalin23
Member
D
Do u think,Iran will hit the country limit this time?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Iran hit the limit with 6k selectees in 2013 - so yes they will be close again this year. However, I think it is a coin toss between Iran hitting the limit or another limit (global or regional being hit). So - I suspect Iran won't get to 7% - whereas Nepal clearly will (and will in DV2015 also - even with only 5k selectees which is the new artificial limit).
guestgulkan
Well-Known Member
I'm wondering what you think of the Fiji situation. They are 11% of OC's population but in some years have received more visas than Australia that make up 60%. Should they have been limited or is OC so small they don't worry about it?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
NO country in OC region is limited this year - and generally won't be. I don't have entrant numbers for DV2014, but based on DV2013 numbers Fiji have received an appropriate amount of visas for the number of entrants they had. The selectee count for a non limited country should be roughly in line with the winning chance for the region and also in line with other countries. Fiji checks out for the country comparison and the winning chance comparison.
The population of any given country has no direct effect on the number of selectees that country receives.
One thing I would say about OC this year. For the number of entries they probably had, the selectees are very high - each individual entry must have had an unusually high chance of being selected - but of course, as we now know, that was probably a cruel torture for the higher CNs.
Last edited:
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
I mean to say you have updated new data from last week which has less AP this time but there is no change is issued number and refused number how is it possible..... those decreased number of AP are issued or refused.... ????
Stalin23
Member
One of my friend also will have interview on 27th august in CLM..his cn is around 99**
But high CN get interview date before him.
Is there any order in scheduling interviews?..please clarify this?
Kayend
Active Member
I don't really get you. When you said last week data, are you refer to just Nepal or Asia? I don't publish data just for Nepal on AP as far as I can remember. Btw, AP can change to Ready but if the # is big then it is not possible. If you can show me the exact # that will help me to clarify better.
i think CLM embassy has less capability..........