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Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept

AP: 2104
Iran: 1635
Nepal: 162
Rest of Asia: 307

Issued: 5284
Iran: 1589
Nepal: 2452
Rest of Asia: 1243

Ready: 2503
Iran: 809 (409)
Nepal: 770 (671)
Rest of Asia: 924 (479)

Refused: 289
Iran: 89
Nepal: 80
Rest of Asia: 120

Based on the data above, it will have about 11.5k and expected fall out rate will be 2k (1k AP + 1k Ready and refused) so it need another 1k or so for Sept. So, it is not really good for Asia. If Nepal take additional 300, Asia will cut off around 15.5k which is lower than I expected initially (16.7k). If AP clearing rate keep on improving, it will push the max CN cut off lower and vice versa. Hope we can avoid this Asia tsunami.
 
Britsimon said:
I edited your cn for your own privacy.

Your number is current if you are not chargeable to Nepal. So if you are from somewhere else you should get your interview 2nl.

However, if you are from Nepal, then it is a different story - and I am sorry to say you probably would not get a 2nl, because Nepal has too many selectees this year...
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Thanks, actually im frm nepal and worried abt it...faint hope is still on.....
 
Stalin23 said:
Is this data only exclude Sri Lanka,Cambodia and Nepal?
What do u think about the cn density between 8900-12700?...I can see there are lot of holes between the cn..
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Aug CN not complete yet. A lot of embassies still have not key in the data yet.
 
crystal#123 said:
Thanks, actually im frm nepal and worried abt it...faint hope is still on.....
Click to expand...


The mistake of publishing of the 12700 number without a cutoff must have been a cruel blow to you. I'm sorry for that! All you can do is wait and see what the next VB says - and if it isn't to be - keep trying.
 
Stalin23 said:
Is this data only exclude Sri Lanka,Cambodia and Nepal?
What do u think about the cn density between 8900-12700?...I can see there are lot of holes between the cn..
Click to expand...

i think there are 3 possible reasons:
1. the embassies are not completed it yet.
2. the holes are countries will be under special cut off (such as Nepal).
3. KCC gave us some Asian High CNs hope with lower density at 10k+ CNs :D
 
WingZero said:
i think there are 3 possible reasons:
1. the embassies are not completed it yet.
2. the holes are countries will be under special cut off (such as Nepal).
3. KCC gave us some Asian High CNs hope with lower density at 10k+ CNs :D
Click to expand...
I wish your 3rd reason may come true...:D:D:D
If there is no heavy impact from Iran and nepal we can expect another big big jumb for Asia....atleast up to 17.5k
 
Last edited:
Kayend said:
AP: 2104
Iran: 1635
Nepal: 162
Rest of Asia: 307

Issued: 5284
Iran: 1589
Nepal: 2452
Rest of Asia: 1243

Ready: 2503
Iran: 809 (409)
Nepal: 770 (671)
Rest of Asia: 924 (479)

Refused: 289
Iran: 89
Nepal: 80
Rest of Asia: 120

Based on the data above, it will have about 11.5k and expected fall out rate will be 2k (1k AP + 1k Ready and refused) so it need another 1k or so for Sept. So, it is not really good for Asia. If Nepal take additional 300, Asia will cut off around 15.5k which is lower than I expected initially (16.7k). If AP clearing rate keep on improving, it will push the max CN cut off lower and vice versa. Hope we can avoid this Asia tsunami.
Click to expand...
According to your data Iran will not hit their country limit this time...What do u think?
 
Stalin23 said:
According to your data Iran will not hit their country limit this time...What do u think?
Click to expand...
It is difficult to say, I would go for 50/50 because it would be a race between Iran AP clearing and Rest of Asia interviews in Sept. In DV13, Iran is clearing their AP until it hit the country limit on 20th Sept, but if we assuming the same speed of AP clearing and Rest of Asia able to clear their interviews before 20th then AP 2nd interviews might be cancel even before it hit the limit. Of course, if the interviews is slower than AP clearing, Iran might hit the limit.
 
Kayend said:
It is difficult to say, I would go for 50/50 because it would be a race between Iran AP clearing and Rest of Asia interviews in Sept. In DV13, Iran is clearing their AP until it hit the country limit on 20th Sept, but if we assuming the same speed of AP clearing and Rest of Asia able to clear their interviews before 20th then AP 2nd interviews might be cancel even before it hit the limit. Of course, if the interviews is slower than AP clearing, Iran might hit the limit.
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Do you have an idea how KCC will blance between AP and announcing the the final VB?
 
SKYSTAR said:
Are they will Use some NICRA to buffer the AP or these will be used to announced for the final VB?
Click to expand...
AP and interviews for Sept coming from the same pool. It doesn't need to balance anything. The question should be how big is the buffer is going to be? I am putting around 30% on top of the regional quota for my predictions. If they put 30% buffer the cut off will be around 15k to 16k with the assumption of Nepal takes another 300 visa slots.
 
Kayend said:
AP and interviews for Sept coming from the same pool. It doesn't need to balance anything. The question should be how big is the buffer is going to be? I am putting around 30% on top of the regional quota for my predictions. If they put 30% buffer the cut off will be around 15k to 16k with the assumption of Nepal takes another 300 visa slots.
Click to expand...
Kayend said:
AP and interviews for Sept coming from the same pool. It doesn't need to balance anything. The question should be how big is the buffer is going to be? I am putting around 30% on top of the regional quota for my predictions. If they put 30% buffer the cut off will be around 15k to 16k with the assumption of Nepal takes another 300 visa slots.
Click to expand...
Kayend said:
AP and interviews for Sept coming from the same pool. It doesn't need to balance anything. The question should be how big is the buffer is going to be? I am putting around 30% on top of the regional quota for my predictions. If they put 30% buffer the cut off will be around 15k to 16k with the assumption of Nepal takes another 300 visa slots.
Click to expand...
Kayend said:
AP and interviews for Sept coming from the same pool. It doesn't need to balance anything. The question should be how big is the buffer is going to be? I am putting around 30% on top of the regional quota for my predictions. If they put 30% buffer the cut off will be around 15k to 16k with the assumption of Nepal takes another 300 visa slots.
Click to expand...
ok kayend, according ur data, will kcc put especial cut off for nepal with how many?
 
loneplanet said:
ok kayend, according ur data, will kcc put especial cut off for nepal with how many?
Click to expand...
Yes, it will because it still have around 1k or so for Nepal and it cannot open up Nepal with more than 90% success rate in the last 9 months. So it will be likely increase from 500 to 1000 CN and that will be 10k to 10.5k. But I would say 10.2k.
 
it's quiet unfair for us (the rest of Asian high CNs). since we only have at most 3000 visas for 11k selectees, since Nepal and Iran have 7000 visas at least for 12000 selectees (and most of Nepalese and Iranian are low CNs / below 13k). If Nepal and Iran really maxed out their 7% quotas, then it means no more hope for the rest of Asia high CNs.. Idk why KCC pick more selectees this year (and they already know in the beginning that we won't have any chances). They must have some reasons, and we'll know it in 3 more weeks.

Let's pray for a happy ending
 
WingZero said:
it's quiet unfair for us (the rest of Asian high CNs). since we only have at most 3000 visas for 11k selectees, since Nepal and Iran have 7000 visas at least for 12000 selectees (and most of Nepalese and Iranian are low CNs / below 13k). If Nepal and Iran really maxed out their 7% quotas, then it means no more hope for the rest of Asia high CNs.. Idk why KCC pick more selectees this year (and they already know in the beginning that we won't have any chances). They must have some reasons, and we'll know it in 3 more weeks.

Let's pray for a happy ending
Click to expand...

I totally agree with you.Further more,how it comes that a random selection puts both Nepal and Iran in narrow range CNs and other counties in huge range?
 
Kayend said:
AP: 2104
Iran: 1635
Nepal: 162
Rest of Asia: 307

Issued: 5284
Iran: 1589
Nepal: 2452
Rest of Asia: 1243

Ready: 2503
Iran: 809 (409)
Nepal: 770 (671)
Rest of Asia: 924 (479)

Refused: 289
Iran: 89
Nepal: 80
Rest of Asia: 120

Based on the data above, it will have about 11.5k and expected fall out rate will be 2k (1k AP + 1k Ready and refused) so it need another 1k or so for Sept. So, it is not really good for Asia. If Nepal take additional 300, Asia will cut off around 15.5k which is lower than I expected initially (16.7k). If AP clearing rate keep on improving, it will push the max CN cut off lower and vice versa. Hope we can avoid this Asia tsunami.
Click to expand...
Kayend said:
AP: 2104
Iran: 1635
Nepal: 162
Rest of Asia: 307

Issued: 5284
Iran: 1589
Nepal: 2452
Rest of Asia: 1243

Ready: 2503
Iran: 809 (409)
Nepal: 770 (671)
Rest of Asia: 924 (479)

Refused: 289
Iran: 89
Nepal: 80
Rest of Asia: 120

Based on the data above, it will have about 11.5k and expected fall out rate will be 2k (1k AP + 1k Ready and refused) so it need another 1k or so for Sept. So, it is not really good for Asia. If Nepal take additional 300, Asia will cut off around 15.5k which is lower than I expected initially (16.7k). If AP clearing rate keep on improving, it will push the max CN cut off lower and vice versa. Hope we can avoid this Asia tsunami.[/

Kayend,
Is that ready data upto August last??????? what does the number inside the bracket mean?
Click to expand...
 
I think the quota can be calculated as the following:( the total numbers from particular region/the total number of winners)X 50000.
 
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