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Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept

Very simple. Each 1k CN Rest of Asia has 250 selectees. If DOS allocates 2k visa slots the final cut off will be 20.7k CN. So it all depend on the visa slots available for us, that is why it is difficult to predict. In Aug they allocated slightly above 1k.
In Your Opinion....What would be the minimum slots they allocate for Sept?
 
I think density above 10k isn't 25%. Until CN 12.7k there are around 11k selectee.. With 23k selectee from asia with 27k max CN.. The density above 16k will be intense again. I hope i'm wrong.. And i hope success and response rate above 10k CNs are pretty low..
This is probability. For the first 8k, on average Rest of Asia is having the density of 25% so in term prediction it is safe to pick that number. During selections, it might be 75% chances they pick Iran and Nepal selectees and 25% Rest of Asia based on the entrants statistic, when Nepal and Iran hit the artificial limit of 6k those will become holes. So my point is that whether they is Iran or Nepal on certain range of CN, Rest of Asia still having the same probability of 25%.
 
In Your Opinion....What would be the minimum slots they allocate for Sept?
I think they will go for 1k but whether NACARA plays a role here or not for the last month allocation I am not sure. I hope it will. If NACARA quota release for the very last month then it is possible to have 2k visa slots but it cannot go beyond that, that's why I said 99% it will not go current.
 
I think they will go for 1k but whether NACARA plays a role here or not for the last month allocation I am not sure. I hope it will. If NACARA quota release for the very last month then it is possible to have 2k visa slots but it cannot go beyond that, that's why I said 99% it will not go current.
I hope your are right!...
 
Let think how DOS decides the visa slots. Allocations are done in 2 months advance so they have to predict the success rate. How they predict the success rate? The best way is to look at last few months success rate, so if rest of Asia is having a success rate of 70%, it will needs 13k to 14k selectees to meet the quota of 10k. Of course Asia is not that simple, because we have Iran will the high AP rate and Nepal with the high success rate but since Iran and Nepal is out of the race for Sept, so it don't need a PhD to predict what will be the final cut off. The problem with all ours predictions is that we don't have the important data like regional quota, predicted success rate that DOS will use and how many quota that NACARA it will give to Asia. So my prediction of 16.7k is assuming regional quota of 9.4k and success rate of 70% therefore it needs around 12.5k to 13k selectees. And up to Aug we already have 11.3k selectees so with 1k to 1.5k + AOS will be good enough to meet 9.4k quota.

Make sense?
 
I think density above 10k isn't 25%. Until CN 12.7k there are around 11k selectee.. With 23k selectee from asia with 27k max CN.. The density above 16k will be intense again. I hope i'm wrong.. And i hope success and response rate above 10k CNs are pretty low..

The 11k are those that responded. Many of the 23k won't respond, so remaining selectees (responded) from the last 14k case numbers is probably around 4k or so. There will also be around 1k aos cases not shown in CeAc
 
But some other selectees as i know told me that they have already specified their embassy of interview and sent their documents to that embassy, where our CN ranks are close. But dont know how my one is not specified yet!

For goodness sake, do something! All I keep hearing from you is but, but, but! Sounds like you procrastinate a lot, that's the reason you never updated your information with KCC after getting married and it's looking like it will cost you this opportunity if your CN ever gets to be current!

I've lost count of how many times Simon has told you to send in the updated forms with the marriage certificate, yet all you keep saying is but, but, but!

No one sends document to the embassy without being current or getting their interview letter which specifies where they will be interviewed. But most people know in advance where they're likely to be interviewed based on what they put down on the DSP form they sent in to KCC.
 
Letest CEAC data upto 9500 for Nepalese (07-03-2014)
AP = 166 ( but upto march interview 48 , april interview 13 , may interview 29 is not made issue or still pending )
Issue = 2530
Ready = 886
TOTAL = 3582
So,
Balance Visa = 3750 - 3582 + 48 (AP of march interview upto 4325 is not made issue ) + 100 appx.( Ready 886 & balance AP isn't made issue or refused ) = 316
Refused = 82
 
The 11k are those that responded. Many of the 23k won't respond, so remaining selectees (responded) from the last 14k case numbers is probably around 4k or so. There will also be around 1k aos cases not shown in CeAc
will the AOS cases reduce the remaining available visas?
 
Yeah i put three options there as i think there was given that we had to put alternative embassies too. I put the kabul embassy first and i hope they choose it.

Crickey! :eek: Why on earth you did this is rather baffling. Place of interview is usually based on the home address you're listing on the form. You're the first person I've heard of claiming the form says to provide alternative interview venue. There's no such instruction on DSP 122 that I'm aware of. Seems like you have a habit of not following given instructions.

Anyway, my guess is KCC will assign the applicable embassy based on the home address provided.
 
Mom got mad.

:p

Lol! I just got tired of reading 'but, but but' considering the fact that ILs for those current in Sept are more or less ready and are just waiting for the numbers to be confirmed and officially released before KCC starts sending out those letters.
 
AOS cases draw from the same 50/55k visas (just as CP cases). AOS accounts for about 5% of the cases globally, probably a bit less.
thanks for your response.. so the probability Asia will hit 19k is as the same as the probability that Costa Rica will win the World Cup :(
 
Let think how DOS decides the visa slots. Allocations are done in 2 months advance so they have to predict the success rate. How they predict the success rate? The best way is to look at last few months success rate, so if rest of Asia is having a success rate of 70%, it will needs 13k to 14k selectees to meet the quota of 10k. Of course Asia is not that simple, because we have Iran will the high AP rate and Nepal with the high success rate but since Iran and Nepal is out of the race for Sept, so it don't need a PhD to predict what will be the final cut off. The problem with all ours predictions is that we don't have the important data like regional quota, predicted success rate that DOS will use and how many quota that NACARA it will give to Asia. So my prediction of 16.7k is assuming regional quota of 9.4k and success rate of 70% therefore it needs around 12.5k to 13k selectees. And up to Aug we already have 11.3k selectees so with 1k to 1.5k + AOS will be good enough to meet 9.4k quota.

Make sense?

I need a hundred more then your prediction Kayend! Lets make it 16.8k :);)
 
Lol! I just got tired of reading 'but, but but' considering the fact that ILs for those current in Sept are more or less ready and are just waiting for the numbers to be confirmed and officially released before KCC starts sending out those letters.
Don't go mad please!
This is the place where we have to share our concerns and to know something. If you are tired of some posts, just neglect them or go out of here-Very simple!
 
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