Pretty simple.. Kayend means cutoff for Sep is 12700+(available visas*4). I hope he is right.Without 2k slots, are you still on 16k?
Pretty simple.. Kayend means cutoff for Sep is 12700+(available visas*4). I hope he is right.Without 2k slots, are you still on 16k?
In Your Opinion....What would be the minimum slots they allocate for Sept?Very simple. Each 1k CN Rest of Asia has 250 selectees. If DOS allocates 2k visa slots the final cut off will be 20.7k CN. So it all depend on the visa slots available for us, that is why it is difficult to predict. In Aug they allocated slightly above 1k.
My prediction was based on Aug visa slots, therefore I put it 16.7k. If DOS decided to increase it for the final month then it is possible to reach around 20k.Without 2k slots, are you still on 16k?
This is probability. For the first 8k, on average Rest of Asia is having the density of 25% so in term prediction it is safe to pick that number. During selections, it might be 75% chances they pick Iran and Nepal selectees and 25% Rest of Asia based on the entrants statistic, when Nepal and Iran hit the artificial limit of 6k those will become holes. So my point is that whether they is Iran or Nepal on certain range of CN, Rest of Asia still having the same probability of 25%.I think density above 10k isn't 25%. Until CN 12.7k there are around 11k selectee.. With 23k selectee from asia with 27k max CN.. The density above 16k will be intense again. I hope i'm wrong.. And i hope success and response rate above 10k CNs are pretty low..
I Still below your cutoff....16.2K.......My prediction was based on Aug visa slots, therefore I put it 16.7k. If DOS decided to increase it for the final month then it is possible to reach around 20k.
I think they will go for 1k but whether NACARA plays a role here or not for the last month allocation I am not sure. I hope it will. If NACARA quota release for the very last month then it is possible to have 2k visa slots but it cannot go beyond that, that's why I said 99% it will not go current.In Your Opinion....What would be the minimum slots they allocate for Sept?
I hope your are right!...I think they will go for 1k but whether NACARA plays a role here or not for the last month allocation I am not sure. I hope it will. If NACARA quota release for the very last month then it is possible to have 2k visa slots but it cannot go beyond that, that's why I said 99% it will not go current.
I think density above 10k isn't 25%. Until CN 12.7k there are around 11k selectee.. With 23k selectee from asia with 27k max CN.. The density above 16k will be intense again. I hope i'm wrong.. And i hope success and response rate above 10k CNs are pretty low..
But some other selectees as i know told me that they have already specified their embassy of interview and sent their documents to that embassy, where our CN ranks are close. But dont know how my one is not specified yet!
will the AOS cases reduce the remaining available visas?The 11k are those that responded. Many of the 23k won't respond, so remaining selectees (responded) from the last 14k case numbers is probably around 4k or so. There will also be around 1k aos cases not shown in CeAc
will the AOS cases reduce the remaining available visas?
Yeah i put three options there as i think there was given that we had to put alternative embassies too. I put the kabul embassy first and i hope they choose it.
Mom got mad.
thanks for your response.. so the probability Asia will hit 19k is as the same as the probability that Costa Rica will win the World CupAOS cases draw from the same 50/55k visas (just as CP cases). AOS accounts for about 5% of the cases globally, probably a bit less.
Let think how DOS decides the visa slots. Allocations are done in 2 months advance so they have to predict the success rate. How they predict the success rate? The best way is to look at last few months success rate, so if rest of Asia is having a success rate of 70%, it will needs 13k to 14k selectees to meet the quota of 10k. Of course Asia is not that simple, because we have Iran will the high AP rate and Nepal with the high success rate but since Iran and Nepal is out of the race for Sept, so it don't need a PhD to predict what will be the final cut off. The problem with all ours predictions is that we don't have the important data like regional quota, predicted success rate that DOS will use and how many quota that NACARA it will give to Asia. So my prediction of 16.7k is assuming regional quota of 9.4k and success rate of 70% therefore it needs around 12.5k to 13k selectees. And up to Aug we already have 11.3k selectees so with 1k to 1.5k + AOS will be good enough to meet 9.4k quota.
Make sense?
Don't go mad please!Lol! I just got tired of reading 'but, but but' considering the fact that ILs for those current in Sept are more or less ready and are just waiting for the numbers to be confirmed and officially released before KCC starts sending out those letters.