2014AS000xxxxx All asia please help share CN info.
- Thread starter NOPPO
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Sushihanako
Registered Users (C)
My case number: 2014AS00012XXX.
monashed
Registered Users (C)
good number
Kayend
Active Member
There are 3 variables that impact the chances of interview
1. Holes created when selection was made due to duplicate entries, fraud and etc...
2. Disqualified applicants (visa denial because it does meet the requirement and not honest selectee) and do not procced selectee
3. Overflow countries (some countries with more applicants than 3,500 selectee)
1. 26000 (highest so far in forum)
18750 (15% for Asia from 125k selectee)
To get the holes created % calculation:
18750/26000 = ~72%
So, 38% in the running case #created.
Take your case number and minus 38%, you should get your actual rank #.
e.g. 15000 (case #) x 0.72 = 10,800 (actual rank # without holes)
2. Based on past year statistic, Asia have 50-60% success rate from applicant to get visa.
So, we have take your actual rank # minus 40% to eliminate the failed applicants.
e.g. 10,800 x 0.6 = 6,480
3. In Asia there are 2 countries has more than 3,500 selectee, so you can takes 3000 selectee out from 18750 and that is 16%.
e.g. 6,480 x 0.84 = 5443
Conclusion:
If your case # is 15000, you will be 72% (5443/7500) which is within the safe bracket.
Anything above 100% is consider unsafe bracket.
The above analysis is just based on my personal analysis.
With the assumption that the figure presented are even distributed.
This analysis only applied to Asia and it only make sense when the quota for visa is not over.
1. Holes created when selection was made due to duplicate entries, fraud and etc...
2. Disqualified applicants (visa denial because it does meet the requirement and not honest selectee) and do not procced selectee
3. Overflow countries (some countries with more applicants than 3,500 selectee)
1. 26000 (highest so far in forum)
18750 (15% for Asia from 125k selectee)
To get the holes created % calculation:
18750/26000 = ~72%
So, 38% in the running case #created.
Take your case number and minus 38%, you should get your actual rank #.
e.g. 15000 (case #) x 0.72 = 10,800 (actual rank # without holes)
2. Based on past year statistic, Asia have 50-60% success rate from applicant to get visa.
So, we have take your actual rank # minus 40% to eliminate the failed applicants.
e.g. 10,800 x 0.6 = 6,480
3. In Asia there are 2 countries has more than 3,500 selectee, so you can takes 3000 selectee out from 18750 and that is 16%.
e.g. 6,480 x 0.84 = 5443
Conclusion:
If your case # is 15000, you will be 72% (5443/7500) which is within the safe bracket.
Anything above 100% is consider unsafe bracket.
The above analysis is just based on my personal analysis.
With the assumption that the figure presented are even distributed.
This analysis only applied to Asia and it only make sense when the quota for visa is not over.
Last edited by a moderator:
monashed
Registered Users (C)
thank you kayend for your calculations
according to this i'm at 92% which should be safe,and above 21K is not safe.
but what if there are only 23XXX that's change the picture, i didn't see a lot of talks about the 26XXX
Kayend
Active Member
Yes, if the highest case # is 23000 then the 1st variable will drop from 38% to 18.5%
But we don't know the highest #, we just based on info we got so far. If we have a higher # than 26000 then the calculation will change as well.
Even the 2nd variable are conservative figure. I am considering the success rate is 60%, but average should be 55%. Moreover, I just take this percentage on the rank # and not the overall selectee. The success rate is actually based on total selectee.
But we don't know the highest #, we just based on info we got so far. If we have a higher # than 26000 then the calculation will change as well.
Even the 2nd variable are conservative figure. I am considering the success rate is 60%, but average should be 55%. Moreover, I just take this percentage on the rank # and not the overall selectee. The success rate is actually based on total selectee.
Last edited by a moderator:
SMTG34
New Member
samyoussef
Registered Users (C)
African winner but I live in Korea need a help
I'm African winner AF2014...22xxx. I wrote in the Kcc forms that the visa processing in US embassy in Seoul Korea . My question is my expected date will follow the numerical cut of number of Africa or my CN will changed to Asia?
I'm African winner AF2014...22xxx. I wrote in the Kcc forms that the visa processing in US embassy in Seoul Korea . My question is my expected date will follow the numerical cut of number of Africa or my CN will changed to Asia?
monashed
Registered Users (C)
ask experts to make sure,
but from what i read you are referring to Africa numbers.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Your number will stay as an AF CN, regardless of where you choose to have your case processed.
Mojorisingdxb
New Member
Im AS00009xxx , i guess its a decent one
Britsimon
Super Moderator
In theory, yes.
The way I see it, USCIS were controlling the flow of applicants through the system by case number updates for several months so they can be sure they won't overfill the system and exhaust the visas. At some point they make the countries current because they believe they can process the remaining selectees that have responded - so now the only remaining limitation is the available appointments for interview (depends on consular office) and the possibilities of administrative processing (rare) and denial during interview (also fairly rare - less than 10%).