2014AS000xxxxx All asia please help share CN info.

[monashed]

Hope that number i s real but I seems imposible since we don't see any number between 24000 - 52000. That range is so wide so I think it's weird.

You right, but there is not so many numbers published here , less than 20 from thousands, so its possible

 

[monashed]

Wow, this is a big jump from the # in this forum. Is that 50xxx or 5xxx?

52xxx

 

[Kayend]

If this is real, then the progress of interview schedule might be something like DV2011.

 

[Kayend]

Some of the case # from an Iran forum

2014AS000015XX
2014AS000049xx
2014AS00002XXX
2014AS000060xx
2014AS000006xx
2014AS00005xxx
2014AS000064XX
2014AS00001XXX
2014AS000018XX
2014AS000031xx
2014AS000056xx
2014AS000020xx
2014AS000055xx
2014AS000001XX
2014AS00006XXX
2014AS000032XX
2014AS000079xx
2014AS000014XX
2014AS000058xx
2014AS000002xx
2014AS000077XX
2014AS000009xx
2014AS000008xx
2014AS00008xxx
2014AS000081xx
2014AS00007xxx
2014AS00001xxx

Only 30% of it are listed here, but there are all below 10k case #. So, 52xxx might not be real.

 

[NOPPO]

Maybe it's typo. It might be 52xx

 

[SirDuke]

Hi guys,

My cn# is 2014AS000007xx

 

[monashed]

more research i did

I look again at statistics and find out that in DV-2011, there were 14,904 selected from Asia
, this was the number published at their site :
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5073.html

you can see that the numbers selected in the visa bulletin was much larger - maximum before current
39,750 in August.
here:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html

which means that only quarter of the numbers from 0-40K exists.

this means we cannot really tell if high numbers effect our chances.

similar behavior was in dv2012 (i think only dv2013 is exceptional)

 

[Kayend]

Yes, because we don't really know the how many holes created in the selection process. Maybe in DV2013, very few holes created that why it # is low. Actually, DV2013 is very strange because the total selectees for DV2013 in Asia is 16k but the highest case # in DV2013 is around 11k. Even without any holes (which is impossible) in the case #, it still short 5k selectees.

 

[monashed]

summary of asia numbers so far

2014AS000104XX.
2014AS000015XX
2014AS000049xx
2014AS00002XXX
2014AS000060xx
2014AS000006xx
2014AS00005xxx
2014AS000064XX
2014AS00001XXX
2014AS000018XX
2014AS000031xx
2014AS000056xx
2014AS000020xx
2014AS000055xx
2014AS000001XX
2014AS00006XXX
2014AS000032XX
2014AS000079xx
2014AS000014XX
2014AS000058xx
2014AS000002xx
2014AS000077XX
2014AS000009xx
2014AS000008xx
2014AS00008xxx
2014AS000081xx
2014AS00007xxx
2014AS00001xxx
2014AS00023xxx
2014AS000193xx
2014AS00022Xxx
2014AS000104XX
2014AS000050xx
2014AS000065xx
2014AS00010xxx
2014AS000193XXX
2014AS00022XXX
2014AS000222xx
2014AS00023XXX
2014AS00026XXX (largest confirmed)
2014AS00070XXX (not confirmed)

 

[NOPPO]

Is 26Xxx confirmed?

 

[Kayend]

Another 3 CN # from Iranian site

2014AS000197xx
2014AS00019xxx
2014AS00023xxx

23xxx seem to be the highest reported so far from Iran.

 

[jyamire]

Case number

My CN # = DV201400013XXX

Hi all,

My CN is 2014AS004xxx

 

[c1984]

Please see signature.

 

[monashed]

Please see signature.

you got 2 numbers ?

 

[c1984]

you got 2 numbers ?

That means I'm giving a wider range for the sake of anonymity.

 

[c1984]

My Estimate is that the maximum should be around 27160.

This is a classic problem in Statistics known as "German Tank Problem" (Wikipedia page).

For geeks only:
1) Replace xx with the average of the band, for example 21xx -> 2150;
2) Discard the outlier: 70xxx;
3) Count = 40, Max = 26500. Using the frequentist method explained on the Wiki page, the estimate is: 27161.5

2014AS000104XX.
2014AS000015XX
2014AS000049xx
2014AS00002XXX
2014AS000060xx
2014AS000006xx
2014AS00005xxx
2014AS000064XX
2014AS00001XXX
2014AS000018XX
2014AS000031xx
2014AS000056xx
2014AS000020xx
2014AS000055xx
2014AS000001XX
2014AS00006XXX
2014AS000032XX
2014AS000079xx
2014AS000014XX
2014AS000058xx
2014AS000002xx
2014AS000077XX
2014AS000009xx
2014AS000008xx
2014AS00008xxx
2014AS000081xx
2014AS00007xxx
2014AS00001xxx
2014AS00023xxx
2014AS000193xx
2014AS00022Xxx
2014AS000104XX
2014AS000050xx
2014AS000065xx
2014AS00010xxx
2014AS000193XXX
2014AS00022XXX
2014AS000222xx
2014AS00023XXX
2014AS00026XXX (largest confirmed)
2014AS00070XXX (not confirmed)

 

[c1984]

BTW, this data supports the speculations regarding the existence of the so-called "holes" in the higher numbers. This means that the cut-off dates will move a lot faster towards the end of the fiscal year.

Band Frequency
01,000 ●●●●●
02,000 ●●●●●
03,000 ●●
04,000 ●●
05,000 ●
06,000 ●●●●●
07,000 ●●●●
08,000 ●●●
09,000 ●●
10,000
11,000 ●●●
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000 ●●
21,000
22,000
23,000 ●●●
24,000 ●●
25,000
26,000
27,000 ●
28,000
29,000
30,000

 

[monashed]

any confirmations on the largest numbers ? someone look other forum numbers?

 

[drdentisit]

11xxx

 

[fulbari123]

My CN is 8XXX.

My CN is 8XXX. I will be doing AOS. I believe a have a fair chance but still scared....