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2014 DV Australian winners

February 11th Interview - DV2014000006XX

Well my number came up in for a February 11th interview in Sydney @ 10am. Have had the family checked all vaccinated...We are on the Gold Coast - have our medicals on Jan 15th 9am in Brisbane - my husband is off to the states for 2 weeks after that and comes back a week before the interview - it will be his 67th time visiting the USA lol..we had to have a whole spreadsheet for our visits...waiting for the interview is going to be fun with Miss 13 and Miss 10 too..

My second NL with the interview time arrived at about 5.30am the Thursday after the Jan Bulletin was released...

Just need to go to a Queensland Police station to organize the state police check for my husband and I - doesn't appear you can do his online anywhere??
Will start photocopying all my papers and get them to a JP which will take a while with four lots of documents.

DV2014OC000006XX
Gender: Female
Entry Checked: 06/05/13
Forms sent to KCC: 30/05/13
Confirmed by KCC via email: Never heard
2nd NL: 18/05/13
Documents: Not Yet
Police Report: Not Yet
Medicals: 15/01/2013
Interview: 11/02/2013
POE: LAX
 
mijoro said:
The only other reason I can think of for such a low increase is that there is/ are very few people that are returning forms and turning up to interviews, in that case perhaps another low increase and then they can hit the current mark. Does that make sense?
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In the case of low numbers returning their frms, the numbers should move faster, not slower. If they only got to let's say 1500 by August interviews they would still have a huge number of cases that could potentially come through, since some people might even be waiting until the sat minute to submit their forms. Remember the August interviews will be announced in the penultimate VB which will be released in June - so eople could in theory submit forms then and still get a September interview. Risky but possible. But because of tat, the last month won't go current unless that risk is manageable...
 
roxeegirl said:
waiting for the interview is going to be fun with Miss 13 and Miss 10 too..
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You'll be fine. They're old enough not to be absolute terrors like the little bastards who were running around before my interview.

Have them take a book or something to read, because the magazines when I was in Sydney were absolutely tragic. Maybe even do what I did and show up an hour early. I was scheduled for 9:30am, rolled in at 8:30am and was out on the street by 10:25. Your mileage may vary though - I was a single guy with the simplest pile of paperwork ever, not a family.
 
Hi, I seem to be getting conflicting answers, so I thought I would ask here. I have moved address and although I have informed KCC, I am worried about getting the Visa interview letter. They have informed me that I will receive notice by Email not post anyway? So when you were informed, was it by post, Email, or both?

Thanks for your help, and good luck to all who are trying! My number is oc000017xx, So I'm a little worried with such low numbers in the bulletin.
 
DWS15 said:
Hi, I seem to be getting conflicting answers, so I thought I would ask here. I have moved address and although I have informed KCC, I am worried about getting the Visa interview letter. They have informed me that I will receive notice by Email not post anyway? So when you were informed, was it by post, Email, or both?

Thanks for your help, and good luck to all who are trying! My number is oc000017xx, So I'm a little worried with such low numbers in the bulletin.
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OK you need to clarify whether you mean for interview outside of the states (Consular processing or CP) or adjustment of status whilst inside the states (AOS). For CP the 2NL is an email that tells you to check the ESC website for your interview details. However I think you may be doing AOS since you posted in another thread with is for AOS. I'm not sure how you receive that 2NL.
 
britsimon said:
OK you need to clarify whether you mean for interview outside of the states (Consular processing or CP) or adjustment of status whilst inside the states (AOS). For CP the 2NL is an email that tells you to check the ESC website for your interview details. However I think you may be doing AOS since you posted in another thread with is for AOS. I'm not sure how you receive that 2NL.
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Thank you, that helps a lot!
 
You didn't say if your were going into to the Syd office or if you are in the states already DWS
 
britsimon said:
No it isn't because OC is a small region. In the statistics thread you would see (if you could keep awake through tons of posts) that we have been discussing a couple of different concepts. To me it is all just a matter of supply and demand. How many visas are there and how many want them. We know there are not enough visas to meet demand this year. They seem to have calculated likely demand based on 2012 but that was a fiasco year, so using that as a basis for calculations is a bad mistake. I believe that is why we have 140k selectees. In terms of supply there are only 50k visas (possibly slightly more depending on NACARA).

Then there is the regional quotas - the way that the 50,000 visas will be divided up between the regions. What we did is assume that KCC were signalling the quotas by the relative distribution of the selectees. We know AF got 62k selectees and EU got 46k selectees and so on. It is reasonable to assume (although possibly not correct) that each region will get a quota similar to their proportion so AF should get 62000/140000*50000 - 22140 and OC would get 4200/140000*50000 = 1500. There are problems
with that as an assumption, but let's assume it is right.

Next we have to work out demand. Not every selectee returns their forms to KCC, not everyone who does that turns up for the appointment, some people get denied at the interview. You can combine all these factors and see the selectee to visas issued rate - I call that the success rate. Each country tends to repeat the success rate so it varies greatly by country and by region. I calculated that based on 2011 figures (a couple of different methods) and for OC it comes out at about 0.36. So 4215 would result (if not capped) to 1525 visas. The other method came out a tad higher but less than 1600.

So, if demand is 1550 ish and supply is around 1500 ish, things don't look bad for OC (compared to other regions). AF for instance probably needs 6000 too many visas and it is the same story in SA, EU and AS regions. Of all the regions, OC is the least oversubscribed. It IS oversubscribed, but not by much.

Word of caution, the assumption of quota is a complete guess - but I cannot understand why they doubled OC selectees if it wasn't for a reason...
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Is not not possible for OC region to get above 1500 visa if they do not exceed the 7% quota.?
 
samolaniyi said:
Is not not possible for OC region to get above 1500 visa if they do not exceed the 7% quota.?
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There are 3 quotas or limits to think about.

The first is the global limit of 50k (55k before the NACARA allowance).
The second is that no one country can get more than 7% of the 50k (i.e. 3500). No country in OC has enough visas for that to be an issue.
The other limit is the regional quota - the predetermined split or ratio of how the 50k is supposed to be distributed between the regions. There is a formula for that and the actual split varies year to year - so that is what I was referring to in the post you quoted.
 
Hopefully there is going to be some good news for us OC'ers this month. I am hoping that we are going to start seeing bigger jumps in the cut offs starting from the next release.
 
emma_ said:
What's the DOMA repeal? (out of interest?) :)
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vladek15425 said:
could you tells us what is doma ? hope he has 10 derivatives to leave 10 chances for oc lol
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DOMA Repeal refers to the Supreme Court decision which repealed Section 3 of the Defense of Marriage Act, or DOMA. Section 3 of DOMA—a federal law passed in 1996 defined marriage as a union between one man and one woman for the purpose of federal administrative policies—denied LGBT couples access to more than 1,000 federal programs and benefits available to opposite-sex married couples. The repeal now makes it possible for same sex couples to sponsor their partners for GC.
 
Sm1smom said:
DOMA Repeal refers to the Supreme Court decision which repealed Section 3 of the Defense of Marriage Act, or DOMA. Section 3 of DOMA—a federal law passed in 1996 defined marriage as a union between one man and one woman for the purpose of federal administrative policies—denied LGBT couples access to more than 1,000 federal programs and benefits available to opposite-sex married couples. The repeal now makes it possible for same sex couples to sponsor their partners for GC.
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all right so now same sex couples mariage is legal in usa they get acces to same rights ? and is it only for some states or for the whole usa ?
 
new user

Hi All,

Just came across this forum and finding a lot of good information and first hand recounts of winning the DV Lottery. I am a 2014 DV lottery winner in the high 1000 - 1100's. Based on what I am reading and how the bulletin is going (100 per month) is it safe to say that my interview wont be until around june / july?

AusDan
 
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