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2014 DV Australian winners

Ok so we are rapidly rolling towards being able to say THIS is the year that I am moving to the USA. With the next allocation of number s not far away hopefully we can expect to see a major jump in cut off rates for March. Fingers crossed that we improve by at least 300 spots rather than the 100 per month we are seeing now.
 
lillshai said:
Brilliant, thanks Crawf33!!
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emma_ said:
I agree, thanks Crawf! Have only just seen this website & I read through every blog post- it's very helpful- as you say, there really is little info out there about first-hand experiences!
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No worries guys, thanks for the feedback! I'm enjoying keeping a little journal of my experiences - as my new employer said to me, "I'm sure you didn't enter the green card lottery thinking 'I hope I win so I can move to Augusta. Maine!'", but it's been an exciting challenge.
 
mijoro said:
Ok so we are rapidly rolling towards being able to say THIS is the year that I am moving to the USA. With the next allocation of number s not far away hopefully we can expect to see a major jump in cut off rates for March. Fingers crossed that we improve by at least 300 spots rather than the 100 per month we are seeing now.
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I like your thinking, Mijoro -- 300 spots per month would be much more encouraging. The recent trend of 100 per month has been very disheartening. At the moment, even tectonic plates are moving faster than the Oceania case numbers.
 
Yes, it's like pulling teeth. While I know that we have a good chance of turning current the distance between 650 and the 2k mark seems to like from here to the moon.
 
What I would like to know is the amount of selectees that are interviewed after our region turns current.
 
You are quite correct Mijoro - the jumps have to to pretty substantial now - there are only 7 bulletins left so we need to be seeing 300 per month. Next one at 950/1000 would be good.
 
Simon, how many ( Although I dont know if you can find out) selectees do they on average interview after a region turns current? Is it usually around the same amount they have jumped by or do they usually pull out all the stops with the last month?
 
mijoro said:
Simon, how many ( Although I dont know if you can find out) selectees do they on average interview after a region turns current? Is it usually around the same amount they have jumped by or do they usually pull out all the stops with the last month?
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When a region turn current its means they have enough visas quota left to cover all the rest of
The candidates :)
 
Yes Vladdy, I understand that does that mean though that they get to interview ALL of the people they have visas for?
 
mijoro said:
Yes Vladdy, I understand that does that mean though that they get to interview ALL of the people they have visas for?
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Yes if its current means all will have an interview usually its not lot of selectees that left on the last current
Months,for ex: EU in july gets a cut off at 35000 and if it goes current in augus will also be current on the last month of the dv september; than all the reste of the selectees up to the last one EU59xxx will get an interview within those two months.
In the last 4 months of the dv the interview process accelerates (because of the whole certainly) its where they Schedule more interview to make sure they fill up the quotas and get ready for the new following dv.
 
Well I certainly do hope we see something substantial not only in OC but in the other regions which are lacking at the moment.
 
I think hope its all we got by now !
I evaluated all the probabilities for this dv 14 to go current for all the regions!
And simon destroyed Logically all my evaluations. So at this stage I think he's right
Will be lot of disappointment :( unless if an unexpected factor comes and change the pace of the monthly Cut off.
 
mijoro said:
Simon, how many ( Although I dont know if you can find out) selectees do they on average interview after a region turns current? Is it usually around the same amount they have jumped by or do they usually pull out all the stops with the last month?
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I doubt that the regions will go current this year. Perhaps OC, but the other regions - very doubtful. If there is more demand left (i.e. more people that want visas than available visas) then they can't go current. However, in theory when they go current I think they would have a roughly similar amount processed as in the preceding months, simply because the "system" (i.e. KCC scheduling interviews and the embassies performing the interviews) has a capacity - so they wouldn't want to save up all the work for the last month or two - especially as they will already have extra workload in receiving and processing DV2015 forms.
 
Simon ,this has probably been asked to death but is the reason you think we may turn current is cause we are such a small region?
Doesn't our high success rate negate that
 
mijoro said:
Simon ,this has probably been asked to death but is the reason you think we may turn current is cause we are such a small region?
Doesn't our high success rate negate that
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No it isn't because OC is a small region. In the statistics thread you would see (if you could keep awake through tons of posts) that we have been discussing a couple of different concepts. To me it is all just a matter of supply and demand. How many visas are there and how many want them. We know there are not enough visas to meet demand this year. They seem to have calculated likely demand based on 2012 but that was a fiasco year, so using that as a basis for calculations is a bad mistake. I believe that is why we have 140k selectees. In terms of supply there are only 50k visas (possibly slightly more depending on NACARA).

Then there is the regional quotas - the way that the 50,000 visas will be divided up between the regions. What we did is assume that KCC were signalling the quotas by the relative distribution of the selectees. We know AF got 62k selectees and EU got 46k selectees and so on. It is reasonable to assume (although possibly not correct) that each region will get a quota similar to their proportion so AF should get 62000/140000*50000 - 22140 and OC would get 4200/140000*50000 = 1500. There are problems with that as an assumption, but let's assume it is right.

Next we have to work out demand. Not every selectee returns their forms to KCC, not everyone who does that turns up for the appointment, some people get denied at the interview. You can combine all these factors and see the selectee to visas issued rate - I call that the success rate. Each country tends to repeat the success rate so it varies greatly by country and by region. I calculated that based on 2011 figures (a couple of different methods) and for OC it comes out at about 0.36. So 4215 would result (if not capped) to 1525 visas. The other method came out a tad higher but less than 1600.

So, if demand is 1550 ish and supply is around 1500 ish, things don't look bad for OC (compared to other regions). AF for instance probably needs 6000 too many visas and it is the same story in SA, EU and AS regions. Of all the regions, OC is the least oversubscribed. It IS oversubscribed, but not by much.

Word of caution, the assumption of quota is a complete guess - but I cannot understand why they doubled OC selectees if it wasn't for a reason...
 
Sounds like a reasonable assessment to me!

But I guess if they dont pick up the pace in the next few VB's it just wont matter whether supply would generally meet demand. Irrespective of the increased selectees they will still end up with fistfuls of unissued visas if they cant interview the total extent of the "demand" prior to Sept 30th....


britsimon said:
No it isn't because OC is a small region. In the statistics thread you would see (if you could keep awake through tons of posts) that we have been discussing a couple of different concepts. To me it is all just a matter of supply and demand. How many visas are there and how many want them. We know there are not enough visas to meet demand this year. They seem to have calculated likely demand based on 2012 but that was a fiasco year, so using that as a basis for calculations is a bad mistake. I believe that is why we have 140k selectees. In terms of supply there are only 50k visas (possibly slightly more depending on NACARA).

Then there is the regional quotas - the way that the 50,000 visas will be divided up between the regions. What we did is assume that KCC were signalling the quotas by the relative distribution of the selectees. We know AF got 62k selectees and EU got 46k selectees and so on. It is reasonable to assume (although possibly not correct) that each region will get a quota similar to their proportion so AF should get 62000/140000*50000 - 22140 and OC would get 4200/140000*50000 = 1500. There are problems with that as an assumption, but let's assume it is right.

Next we have to work out demand. Not every selectee returns their forms to KCC, not everyone who does that turns up for the appointment, some people get denied at the interview. You can combine all these factors and see the selectee to visas issued rate - I call that the success rate. Each country tends to repeat the success rate so it varies greatly by country and by region. I calculated that based on 2011 figures (a couple of different methods) and for OC it comes out at about 0.36. So 4215 would result (if not capped) to 1525 visas. The other method came out a tad higher but less than 1600.

So, if demand is 1550 ish and supply is around 1500 ish, things don't look bad for OC (compared to other regions). AF for instance probably needs 6000 too many visas and it is the same story in SA, EU and AS regions. Of all the regions, OC is the least oversubscribed. It IS oversubscribed, but not by much.

Word of caution, the assumption of quota is a complete guess - but I cannot understand why they doubled OC selectees if it wasn't for a reason...
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IheartNY said:
Sounds like a reasonable assessment to me!

But I guess if they dont pick up the pace in the next few VB's it just wont matter whether supply would generally meet demand. Irrespective of the increased selectees they will still end up with fistfuls of unissued visas if they cant interview the total extent of the "demand" prior to Sept 30th....
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Absolutely. If they don't pick up the pace then they won't hit the numbers anyway...

Like you, I would be reassured to see OC hit 1000 next VB - although even close to that would be good...
 
IheartNY said:
I certaintly have all my fingers and toes crossed that OC hits the 1000 mark in the next VB.
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Oh I am with you on that one thats for sure. I mean even people in the mid to high 1000's have got to be getting nervous around now.
 
britsimon said:
Absolutely. If they don't pick up the pace then they won't hit the numbers anyway...

Like you, I would be reassured to see OC hit 1000 next VB - although even close to that would be good...
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The only other reason I can think of for such a low increase is that there is/ are very few people that are returning forms and turning up to interviews, in that case perhaps another low increase and then they can hit the current mark. Does that make sense?
 
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