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2014 DV Australian winners

TonyJP said:
Britsimon, if my understanding of the timeline is correct, the September cut-off will be announced in the July bulletin (which announces the August cut-off and also the September). Do you know if they continue to accept forms for processing thereafter, or do they use how many forms they've received at that point to determine visa demand and hence the August and September cut-off points?
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The number announced in the August bulletin (which is available mid July) will be the final cutoff (as well as restating the August numbers that were announced in the July bulletin). They do use feedback from the consulates and the submitted forms to determine capacity, demand and of course, they have been tracking the visas against quotas. If people were not submitting forms, and later did so that would be a risky game to play as it can take several weeks for the initial processing. If someone is doing a wait and see, I would not suggest waiting beyond the beginning of June, although later submission could in theory still go through.
 
Sloner said:
why?

why? July 15, 2011, everything was fine.
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1. The lawyer is incorrect to say everyone will get an interview because that clearly cannot always be the case. At some point the visas will run out. I've explained that in detail in various posts.

2. No in July 2011 everything was not fine. I know you don't accept the explanations as to why the redraw caused problems but the simple fact is that the same number of selectees resulted in only ~35,000 visas being issued (hugely short of the target). That in itself makes that year an anomaly. Again, I've explained that time and time again - but really it is self evident.

The following is the number of visa issuances from 2003 to 2012. You tell me if 2012 looks odd?

Grand Totals
2003 - 50,810
2004 - 48,044
2005 - 48,151
2006 - 46,145
2007 - 40,076
2008 - 46,633
2009 - 48,036
2010 - 51,312
2011 - 51,118
2012 - 34,463
 
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You tell me if 2012 looks odd?
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Why do not they have chosen once 145,000? They did not know that.The new program gave a stunning effect. This is not an anomaly, and the positive impact of the new program.
By the way, look at the anomaly in 2007. Remind you that at the time? and what has changed.
 
Thanks Britsimon. KCC received and processed my forms back in May, so I'm not planning to send them through at the last minute. I was just wondering if other people could. Maybe one of the reasons why Oceania is progressing so slowly is that they've already received a lot (or too many?) forms and expect visa demand to outstrip supply. I hope not, because I'm 22XX and I need them to at least get to me. Plus, of course there are others with even higher numbers than mine. Interestingly, though, I haven't seen anyone on this forum with a case number higher than the high 2000s. Obviously, not all Oceania selectees use this forum, but is it possible there are very few case numbers between, say, 2800 and 4215 and that there are a lot of number "holes", making it more likely that most or all of us will get interviews?
 
TonyJP said:
Thanks Britsimon. KCC received and processed my forms back in May, so I'm not planning to send them through at the last minute. I was just wondering if other people could. Maybe one of the reasons why Oceania is progressing so slowly is that they've already received a lot (or too many?) forms and expect visa demand to outstrip supply. I hope not, because I'm 22XX and I need them to at least get to me. Plus, of course there are others with even higher numbers than mine. Interestingly, though, I haven't seen anyone on this forum with a case number higher than the high 2000s. Obviously, not all Oceania selectees use this forum, but is it possible there are very few case numbers between, say, 2800 and 4215 and that there are a lot of number "holes", making it more likely that most or all of us will get interviews?
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There are 4215 selectees including derivatives (so roughly 2100 winners). Only the winners get a CN and the holes are cases that were disqualified before May 1st. So - we don't know how many holes there are, but it is possible that the highest CNs are in the 3000 - 3500 range. So - there aren't many high numbers around - but they are around....
 
Lepeka said:
Another Aussie winner here, my number seems to be the highest around 29XX.
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bkpmc said:
Another winner here, except from across the ditch in NZ.

My case no is 2014OC000028**
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rocky2014 said:
G'day all,

My CN is OC2800's.
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CIluvNY said:
Hello!
I am a DV 2014 Winner from sydney. My CN is high 30xx.
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I think these are the highest we have in this thread so far, I thought there was a high 3k one in the 3800 range.
 
britsimon said:
There are 4215 selectees including derivatives (so roughly 2100 winners). Only the winners get a CN and the holes are cases that were disqualified before May 1st. So - we don't know how many holes there are, but it is possible that the highest CNs are in the 3000 - 3500 range. So - there aren't many high numbers around - but they are around....
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Am I right in assuming "derivatives" means spouses and children? And if I'm reading you right, Britsimon, are you saying that there are only about 2100 primary winners/case numbers waiting for interview and that the remainder of the 4215 figure are the visas that it's estimated will be needed for the primary winners' families? Also, does that mean that if more than expected singles-with-no-children have won the lottery, the visa quota won't be reached as quickly?
 
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DV13 2200/1600=1,37 DV14 4300/3000=1,4. Nothing has changed.Changed the quota and the number of wins, respectively. First calculate the quota, then select the winners. That's the way the lottery.
 
Sloner said:
DV13 2200/1600=1,37 DV14 4300/3000=1,4. Nothing has changed.Changed the quota and the number of wins, respectively. First calculate the quota, then select the winners. That's the way the lottery.
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Sloner you say nothing has changed ? Your estimation shows nearly a double
Increase for OC visas ! From 1600 to 3000 so where do the 1400 visas difference
Come from? Do you think other regions will get less than?
 
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TonyJP said:
Am I right in assuming "derivatives" means spouses and children? And if I'm reading you right, Britsimon, are you saying that there are only about 2100 primary winners/case numbers waiting for interview and that the remainder of the 4215 figure are the visas that it's estimated will be needed for the primary winners' families? Also, does that mean that if more than expected singles-with-no-children have won the lottery, the visa quota won't be reached as quickly?
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Yes derivatives (those who derive benefit from the visa win) means spouses and children. My 2100 figure was a quick halving (i.e. assuming 1 derivative average per winner). That 1:1 number varies by country and region - 1:1 is a bit imprecise. Globally the number is more like 1.6 visas per winner (so each winner has 0.6 derivatives).

In the 2013 CEAC data for OC we see 494 winners accounted for 863 selectees so we could say that OC region is about 1.75 visas per winner (0.75 derivatives per winner) - so actually the 2100 number should be 2400.

SO yes, that means there are about 2400 actual case numbers in OC. In theory, if all the winners who were selected early on we singletons, then yes the visas wouldn't reach quota as quickly - but that would be a dodgy assumption to make. The singletons are probably randomly distributed.

By the way, those singletons could have married since their entry and even had a kid. In that case that singleton would take 2 extra visas from the quota...
 
Sloner said:
DV13 2200/1600=1,37 DV14 4300/3000=1,4. Nothing has changed.Changed the quota and the number of wins, respectively. First calculate the quota, then select the winners. That's the way the lottery.
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Sloner what do these numbers refer to?

The 2200 and 4300 numbers are the selectees for each year. Fine - but what are the 1600 and 3000 numbers. They are not the quotas for visas as you must know! In fact in your post below you predict 1000 to 1200 visas for OC. Please help. My AcmeSlonerTranslator just blew up.

http://forums.immigration.com/showt...inners/page4&p=2669912&highlight=#post2669912
 
Anyone who is above the 1000 mark for OC region should really check out BritSimons explanation of how the visas are allocated and possible allocation levels for our region in the above link. It really makes something that was previously difficult to understand much clearer. Now all we need is for the KCC to play along. ;)
 
lillshai said:
Brilliant, thanks Crawf33!!
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I agree, thanks Crawf! Have only just seen this website & I read through every blog post- it's very helpful- as you say, there really is little info out there about first-hand experiences!
 
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