Pretty simple.. Kayend means cutoff for Sep is 12700+(available visas*4). I hope he is right.
Asia DV14 Progress from Jun to Sept
- Thread starter Kayend
- Start date
Stalin23
Member
In Your Opinion....What would be the minimum slots they allocate for Sept?
Kayend
Active Member
My prediction was based on Aug visa slots, therefore I put it 16.7k. If DOS decided to increase it for the final month then it is possible to reach around 20k.
Kayend
Active Member
This is probability. For the first 8k, on average Rest of Asia is having the density of 25% so in term prediction it is safe to pick that number. During selections, it might be 75% chances they pick Iran and Nepal selectees and 25% Rest of Asia based on the entrants statistic, when Nepal and Iran hit the artificial limit of 6k those will become holes. So my point is that whether they is Iran or Nepal on certain range of CN, Rest of Asia still having the same probability of 25%.
Stalin23
Member
I Still below your cutoff....16.2K.......
Kayend
Active Member
I think they will go for 1k but whether NACARA plays a role here or not for the last month allocation I am not sure. I hope it will. If NACARA quota release for the very last month then it is possible to have 2k visa slots but it cannot go beyond that, that's why I said 99% it will not go current.
Stalin23
Member
I hope your are right!...
Kayend
Active Member
Let think how DOS decides the visa slots. Allocations are done in 2 months advance so they have to predict the success rate. How they predict the success rate? The best way is to look at last few months success rate, so if rest of Asia is having a success rate of 70%, it will needs 13k to 14k selectees to meet the quota of 10k. Of course Asia is not that simple, because we have Iran will the high AP rate and Nepal with the high success rate but since Iran and Nepal is out of the race for Sept, so it don't need a PhD to predict what will be the final cut off. The problem with all ours predictions is that we don't have the important data like regional quota, predicted success rate that DOS will use and how many quota that NACARA it will give to Asia. So my prediction of 16.7k is assuming regional quota of 9.4k and success rate of 70% therefore it needs around 12.5k to 13k selectees. And up to Aug we already have 11.3k selectees so with 1k to 1.5k + AOS will be good enough to meet 9.4k quota.
Make sense?
Make sense?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The 11k are those that responded. Many of the 23k won't respond, so remaining selectees (responded) from the last 14k case numbers is probably around 4k or so. There will also be around 1k aos cases not shown in CeAc
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
For goodness sake, do something! All I keep hearing from you is but, but, but! Sounds like you procrastinate a lot, that's the reason you never updated your information with KCC after getting married and it's looking like it will cost you this opportunity if your CN ever gets to be current!
I've lost count of how many times Simon has told you to send in the updated forms with the marriage certificate, yet all you keep saying is but, but, but!
No one sends document to the embassy without being current or getting their interview letter which specifies where they will be interviewed. But most people know in advance where they're likely to be interviewed based on what they put down on the DSP form they sent in to KCC.
biratnagar
Registered Users (C)
Letest CEAC data upto 9500 for Nepalese (07-03-2014)
AP = 166 ( but upto march interview 48 , april interview 13 , may interview 29 is not made issue or still pending )
Issue = 2530
Ready = 886
TOTAL = 3582
So,
Balance Visa = 3750 - 3582 + 48 (AP of march interview upto 4325 is not made issue ) + 100 appx.( Ready 886 & balance AP isn't made issue or refused ) = 316
Refused = 82
AP = 166 ( but upto march interview 48 , april interview 13 , may interview 29 is not made issue or still pending )
Issue = 2530
Ready = 886
TOTAL = 3582
So,
Balance Visa = 3750 - 3582 + 48 (AP of march interview upto 4325 is not made issue ) + 100 appx.( Ready 886 & balance AP isn't made issue or refused ) = 316
Refused = 82
will the AOS cases reduce the remaining available visas?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
AOS cases draw from the same 50/55k visas (just as CP cases). AOS accounts for about 5% of the cases globally, probably a bit less.
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
Crickey!
Why on earth you did this is rather baffling. Place of interview is usually based on the home address you're listing on the form. You're the first person I've heard of claiming the form says to provide alternative interview venue. There's no such instruction on DSP 122 that I'm aware of. Seems like you have a habit of not following given instructions. Anyway, my guess is KCC will assign the applicable embassy based on the home address provided.
Sm1smom
Super Moderator
Mom got mad.
Lol! I just got tired of reading 'but, but but' considering the fact that ILs for those current in Sept are more or less ready and are just waiting for the numbers to be confirmed and officially released before KCC starts sending out those letters.
thanks for your response.. so the probability Asia will hit 19k is as the same as the probability that Costa Rica will win the World Cup
dmonis
Member
dmonis
Member
Don't go mad please!
This is the place where we have to share our concerns and to know something. If you are tired of some posts, just neglect them or go out of here-Very simple!