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Winning chances dv lottery

I provided the right formula. Your formula is incorrect, because you still consider the junk that is there. That junk (86.45%) is not used in selection process.
 
I said you won... just explain me how for the past 3 Dv, angolan born have had winning chance going from 4.5 to 5.2%...
raevsky said:
I provided the right formula. Your formula is incorrect, because you still consider the junk that is there. That junk (86.45%) is not used in selection process.
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Would you just stop arguing & start doing some math?
past 3 DV means 2011, 2010 & 2009...
Now we have the proof that you were dead wrong because you can't even make a simple math (2011-3 = 2007...?)
You can't even make that simple math & you hope us to believe you with the more complex ones?
raevsky said:
No way to have those chanses since DV-2007 for an angolian.
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raevsky said:
No way to have those chanses since DV-2007 for an angolian.
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Would you just stop arguing & start doing some math?
past 3 DV means 2011, 2010 & 2009...
Now we have the proof that you were dead wrong because you can't even make a simple math (2011-3 = 2007...?)
You can't even make that simple math & you hope us to believe you with the more complex ones?
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Do you really think I gave a broader answer by saying since DV-2007 because I thought 2007 = 2011-3?
BTW, how would 2011-3 relate to 2011, 2010 & 2009?

Of course, I mentioned DV-2007 because no data is available before DV-2007.
 
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could u just do the calculation?
or you do know that it will kill your sole argument
raevsky said:
Do you really think I gave a broader answer by saying since DV-2007 because I thought 2007 = 2011-3?
BTW, how would 2011-3 relate to 2011, 2010 & 2009?

Of course, I mentioned DV-2007 because no data is available before DV-2007.
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THEN WHY THE HELL DON'T YOU JUST DO THE CALCULATION THEN???
Is that simple, do the calculation with Angola & Madagascar & tell me the percentage you find... you keep talking like you know better but so far you haven't proove anything & you also refuse to do some calculation based on OFFICIALS data so either you do the calculation right here in this thread, or you admit that you are just full of shit
raevsky said:
Are you serious? Really?
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Are you asking me how much I need to subtruct from 2011 to get 2007!!! That is 4. Is it difficult for your level? BTW, the answer is the same both in Angola and in Madagackar.
 
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Some basic stats for Asian countries over the last few years.

Iran DV2011 total entries including derivatives: 426,505
total winners including derivatives 2819 , so overall chances of winning 0.66% or 1 in 151

Nepal DV2011 total entries including derivatives: 322,758
total winners including derivatives 2189 , so overall chances of winning 0.68% or 1 in 147

This figure of course is not accounting for the difference between entrant and derivative, as derivatives cannot win by themselves. Over the long term the ratio will cancel out. Because the ratio of entrants/derivatives in the winners group should be the same as the ratio of entrants/derivatives in the entries group in the long run.

Long term data suggests a figure of between 0.5% and 0.77% or roughly 1 in 130 to 1 in 200 for most Asian countries.

This excludes over subscribed countries like Bangladesh which average closer to 0.07% or 1 in 1400 , 10 times harder to win DV lottery if you are claiming bangladesh!
 
Asia has the most entries but the less selectees among the 3 majors regions

Exept countries with more than 7 000 entrans, african countries get about 2 to 3% each time
 
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Folks, remember to keep the language clean and no insults. Repetitive abusers will be banned without further warning.
 
You can't guess probability based on past data because many variables change from year to year.

For example, people often calculate the probability based on the # of visas issued divided by the number of applicants. This is false because visas issued include derivatives.

The # of applicants vary year by year

Countries that are banned/allowed-again can change, adding/subtracting people from the region

Most importantly: The number of visas allocated per region, is predetermined by the Department of State, whose basis of calculation is unknown and the number is unknown until after the lottery is drawn

That last number is what nobody take into consideration when calculating their 'probabilities'

samuel5028 said:
Winning lottery is purely based on luck. Its hard to predict the winner.
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judasgaga said:
You can't guess probability based on past data because many variables change from year to year.

For example, people often calculate the probability based on the # of visas issued divided by the number of applicants. This is false because visas issued include derivatives.

The # of applicants vary year by year


Countries that are banned/allowed-again can change, adding/subtracting people from the region

Most importantly: The number of visas allocated per region, is predetermined by the Department of State, whose basis of calculation is unknown and the number is unknown until after the lottery is drawn

That last number is what nobody take into consideration when calculating their 'probabilities'
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Yes i will accept with you point.
 
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