Why are they selecting more entries on oct 1st?

[raevsky]

I think second draw (versus second batch) contradicts the law. It contradics equal chances of those selected in the first draw and in the second draw. I also think it is possible that they increased the number of people with open wins this time. They always do it next year after underfilling.

 

[unfaithful]

someone in athor forms says something like this:

let's say that KKC selected 100 000 ( actually it's over that number a littel bit) and they give them case numbers from 1 to 100 000, what happened is this :they pick up random winner from different case numbers like :

-9
-11
-15 458
-15 460
.........

and they post them as a first winners and they they get less forms filled than they expected they release this athor numbers:

-10
-15 459
..........

because if they only release winners let's say from 1 to 70 000 and later on post new result for people from 70 000 to 100 000 , it would not be random,because it distangushed them from equal chances( sure people with high rank are less to get interviewed and get visa),so the rank number as well is given in random process.



so what do you think of what this person is saying?

 

[raevsky]

I disagree.
1. Urelated to what you are trying to say. 100000 numbers is not he same as 100000 winners. Numbers have gaps. 100000 numbers is much more that 100000 people. Alot of numbers are unfilled.
2. Regulating processing by case number is a valid way of doing it. By getting cutoff. So if you select 100000 all chances equal, and then cut the first 70000 and give visas to them only, and none to the rest, that is the correct way.

 

[unfaithful]

I disagree.
1. Urelated to what you are trying to say. 100000 numbers is not he same as 100000 winners. Numbers have gaps. 100000 numbers is much more that 100000 people. Alot of numbers are unfilled.
2. Regulating processing by case number is a valid way of doing it. By getting cutoff. So if you select 100000 all chances equal, and then cut the first 70000 and give visas to them only, and none to the rest, that is the correct way.

sorry but i have not got your first point ,could u explain it more plz

 

[raevsky]

Let's say North America has 10 winners.
Their numbers could be:
1,3,4,7,9,10,11,12,15,16
The maximum number is 16, but there are totally 10 numbers. There are gaps between numbers 12 and 15, for instance. In other wods, numbers 13 and 14 are not filled by winners.

 

[unfaithful]

Let's say North America has 10 winners.
Their numbers could be:
1,3,4,7,9,10,11,12,15,16
The maximum number is 16, but there are totally 10 numbers. There are gaps between numbers 12 and 15, for instance. In other wods, numbers 13 and 14 are not filled by winners.

could that mean 13 and 14 are the ones that will be posted on october? i meant the new wnners!

 

[raevsky]

No. That means that 13 and 14 are assigned to real entries who did not comply with requirements and were disqualified.

 

[unfaithful]

you meant stuff like the picture requirements and so on???? ,i still not believe that KKC is going to give rank numbers over than 100 000 to new winners of october because if so then they will need more than one year to finish all their interviews,remember that they only have ontile 30 september 2013 !!!!!!!

 

[unfaithful]

based on what you mentioned that they disqualify some of the selected winners??? are not they first elemenat any incorrect application and then make the draw?

 

[raevsky]

you meant stuff like the picture requirements and so on????

Yes. Complete duplicates as well.

,i still not believe that KKC is going to give rank numbers over than 100 000 to new winners of october because if so then they will need more than one year to finish all their interviews,remember that they only have ontile 30 september 2013 !!!!!!!

Do you remember there are a lot of gaps? The total number of principal winners is about 100,000 every year, including DV-2013, all 6 regions combined.

based on what you mentioned that they disqualify some of the selected winners???

Selection contains several stages. Disqualification is one of them.

are not they first elemenat any incorrect application and then make the draw? .

No, it is much cheaper to make the draw first and eliminate after that. That way they need to check only among first 100,000-200,000 selected versus 20,000,000

 

[unfaithful]

only time will tell.

only 2 months and 25 days before October, and only then we can know!

 

[unfaithful]

i think by august or september we will know if there is really any new winners in October,i meant they would change the word ''May be'' to ''Will'' one month before october or few weeks, since releasing the new winners possibility will be discussed in KKC a while before october,and if there is not new winners there will probably just delete the remarque to keep the confirmation number until october!! that's just my thought

 

[raevsky]

There is only one way to distinguish second batch from second draw. Second draw should be followed by a visa bulletin describing per country amounts. Second batch will not have that. Aslo as I said, second draw violates the equal chance element of the existing law.

 

[unfaithful]

if the second draw violates the law then when that big mistake happened May/2011 they should just elemante the whole DV lottery that year,they had not made another redraw!!!!!!

before the KKC announce about the redraw who was thinking that they will make another draw at that time?? i guess no one of us ,since it have not happened before, so if second draw happened on October we should not be surprised!!!

KKC is not really clear about what going on,someone in Egypitian forum posted that he can't checked his status since every time he tries he get a winner notification of someone from Iran,so what's really going on?

 

[raevsky]

if the second draw violates the law then when that big mistake happened May/2011 they should just elemante the whole DV lottery that year,they had not made another redraw!!!!!!

It was not a redraw. It was completely new draw, from scratch.

before the KKC announce about the redraw who was thinking that they will make another draw at that time?? i guess no one of us ,since it have not happened before, so if second draw happened on October we should not be surprised!!!

In case something unexpected happens.

KKC is not really clear about what going on,someone in Egypitian forum posted that he can't checked his status since every time he tries he get a winner notification of someone from Iran,so what's really going on?

Every time different? I think it is a bug.

 

[unfaithful]

could you please post a link to where it says that a second draw violates the law? or anything related to that?

and no he gets the same notification page everytime he tries!!!!

also many people can't check their status since it says they got incorrect information when they are sure they not made any mistake since they copied and also printed the case number!!!!

i think KKC still suffer from some techinical problems

 

[raevsky]

could you please post a link to where it says that a second draw violates the law? or anything related to that?

Only related stuff. http://travel.state.gov/pdf/DV_2013_instructions.pdf

All entries received during the registration period will have an equal chance of being selected within each region.

and no he gets the same notification page everytime he tries!!!!

Did he contact that Iranian guy? It would be interesting to know what he gets. I think he needs to contact him, maybe that guy gets his page.
I have never heard a case like that, usually those things happen randomly, mostly showing your information, but sometimes for someone else

also many people can't check their status since it says they got incorrect information when they are sure they not made any mistake since they copied and also printed the case number!!!!

That means those people do something wrong. For instance enter their last name and first name instead of just last name.

i think KKC still suffer from some techinical problems

Or those people have problems not being able to figure out what exactly is wrong.

 

[unfaithful]

i can't see any clear statement in wich i can understand that second draw is against the law,equal chance to be selected means random way .............and if second draw happened it won't harm the first winners of 1 May,since they are already selected .........

and now he did not contact the Iranian guy!!!!!!!


USA Embessy in Jordany posted few days ago on Facebook:

Diversity Visa 2013 Entrants: Please keep your confirmation number until at least September 2013, even if you were not selected on May 1, 2012. The Department of
State may select more DV 2013 entries on October 1, 2012


could it mean that there is a high chance to posting new winners in October?? i meant are they saying in indirect way yes there is another draw in october even with using the the word'' may''!!!!??? why they have to wait from 1 may to now to post that,i meant it's like 2 months!!!!!!

 

[raevsky]

i can't see any clear statement in wich i can understand that second draw is against the law,equal chance to be selected means random way .............and if second draw happened it won't harm the first winners of 1 May,since they are already selected .........

My statement is that it means if there are two separate draws, chances to be selected in the first draw should equal exactly to chances to be selected in the second draw.
If you like and understand math, I can provide a mathematical proof why it is not possible. If you are not a math person, that would be a waist of time.

and now he did not contact the Iranian guy!!!!!!!

Why not?

USA Embessy in Jordany posted few days ago on Facebook:

Diversity Visa 2013 Entrants: Please keep your confirmation number until at least September 2013, even if you were not selected on May 1, 2012. The Department of
State may select more DV 2013 entries on October 1, 2012

Some other sources say "on or after October 1st".

could it mean that there is a high chance to posting new winners in October?? i meant are they saying in indirect way yes there is another draw in october even with using the the word'' may''!!!!??? why they have to wait from 1 may to now to post that,i meant it's like 2 months!!!!!!

My understaning is they open previousely hidden winners at some point if necessary to fill the quota.

 

[unfaithful]

yeh i m a math guy, go ahead !!!!!!!

so you agree that they are already considering adding more winners on October !!!!!