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Upcoming Visa Bulletin March 2014

actually I think that 10682 is incomplete i personally feel that last year noone except some iranian were left out from asia or didnot get interview.. from iran too just after sept 20 visa was full... with same pace and this year is difficult to predict but one thing is sure it wont go current this year
Nerandima said:
don't you think this time will be the same?????????
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Nerandima said:
But i don't think that is totally correct.... In DV2013 there were about 16k CN... but they have interviewed up to 11k......
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Last year all selectees submitted their forms get their interviews. Only some AP cases get cut off on 20th Sept due to Iran country limit reached. So, it should not have any CN higher than 11k. 16k is selectees for DV13 and 11k is CN # and there are different thing.
 
Nerandima said:
don't you think this time will be the same?????????
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No - not at all. - there are far too many selectees - so as Kayend pointed out - the definition of Current cannot be met this year - probably for none of the regions, in my opinion. Most likely the VB will just keep increasing with a cutoff number in Aug and September - which has happened previously.
 
Rayme said:
actually I think that 10682 is incomplete i personally feel that last year noone except some iranian were left out from asia or didnot get interview.. from iran too just after sept 20 visa was full... with same pace and this year is difficult to predict but one thing is sure it wont go current this year
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Correct on all points!
 
Rayme said:
so this is 7th cutoff for this year no signs are there for special cutoff for either of asian countries iran and Nepal....

now just 5 more cutoff lefts I donot see any sign of going current this year for any of the reason...
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If there is special cut off, what will be the increment you expect for Asia? 2000, 3000 or 4000? Let say 1000 increment is going to be the base for the coming 5 months, the shares of 1000 will be 200 Rest of Asia, 400 Nepal and 400 Iran. So, when Nepal hit its limit, we might see 3000 increment each month and if Iran would to put into special cut off as well, we might see 5000 increment each month. Knowing that is more selectees this year and hitting 27k max is really hard and let say it hit 20k max case, it need to have 15k increment in 5 months. So, when Nepal hit it country limit, it will increase it 3000 each month and that will be in the range of 20k.

I am not saying Nepal will have the special cut off next VB but I think KCC will need to put them into special cut off sooner or later knowing Nepal will get 3500 visas anyway (just matter of timing) and that will free up some slots for other countries so that it doesn't need to wait until the last 2 months to clear thing up. Anyway, this is the first time we see >1k increment from Asia (without special cut off) except the first month of course and normally the starting point is always high. I think the acceleration has started for Asia. Hopefully more acceleration in the coming months.
 
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Till march cuttoff this is distribution for
africa:
issued=4541,ready=6536 ,refused=756, AP= 895
ASIA:
issue:1699 refused:91 AP:1051 ready:1872
EU:
issued:4588 refused:309 AP:1065 REady:5536
OC:
issued:138 refused:39 AP:38 ready:270
SA:
issued:328 refused:82 AP:67 ready:406
 
ok hmmm... let me explain what i think it is....guys be sure Nepali cases are distributed till 15k... if it KCC was in any mind of keeping Nepal in special cutoff then it would have done earlier... if u see ceac data Nepal was clearly bottle neck for asia still KCC chosed other way increasing just 150 and 250 for two successive months.. why Nepal will not be in special cutoff because Nepal cases are now in range of 280(approx) per thousand(you may be thinking how)...I donot like being joked by anyone but its now confirmed that 4800 people are now processing for visa from Nepal out of which 1705 have been finished till march that means now 3100-3200 left which is distributed till 15000 in Nepal's case and after that it is dispersed lighly upto 27K..so I donot think KCC for any reason will put special cutoff but ya its sure that after range of 13k there will be quota full for Nepali cases and may also for iran too within 10k after that like in previous some year cutoff may rocket increase of 10k also who knows..
kayend said:
If there is special cut off, what will be the increment you expect for Asia? 2000, 3000 or 4000? Let say 1000 increment is going to be the base for the coming 5 months, the shares of 1000 will be 200 Rest of Asia, 400 Nepal and 400 Iran. So, when Nepal hit its limit, we might see 3000 increment each month and if Iran would to put into special cut off as well, we might see 5000 increment each month. Knowing that is more selectees this year and hitting 27k max is really hard and let say it hit 20k max case, it need to have 15k increment in 5 months. So, when Nepal hit it country limit, it will increase it 3000 each month and that will be in the range of 20k.

I am not saying Nepal will have the special cut off next VB but I think KCC will need to put them into special cut off sooner or later knowing Nepal will get 3500 visas anyway (just matter of timing) and that will free up some slots for other countries so that it doesn't need to wait until the last 2 months to clear thing up. Anyway, this is the first time we see >1k increment from Asia (without special cut off) except the first month of course and normally the starting point is always high. I think the acceleration has started for Asia. Hopefully more acceleration in the coming months.
Click to expand...
 
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I'm getting more and more skeptical on the thought that everyone will be current, now...
do you think Asia will hit at least 10k?

I'm AS9xxx, by the way
 
Rayme said:
Till march cuttoff this is distribution for
africa:
issued=4541,ready=6536 ,refused=756, AP= 895
ASIA:
issue:1699 refused:91 AP:1051 ready:1872
EU:
issued:4588 refused:309 AP:1065 REady:5536
OC:
issued:138 refused:39 AP:38 ready:270
SA:
issued:328 refused:82 AP:67 ready:406
Click to expand...

Thanks for summing up the data for us rayme.
But I would like to ask you if its possible to sum it untill feb 02. Because CN are all ready in feb and march ! So the best is to calculate the readys that had a chance for interview already, and compare it to the same amount of seectees incl family, so we will have a better view of how many people went through the interview process and how many got visa granted !
Thanks rayme
 
In any good situation till now I donot see any region going current this year and about ur case u are totally safe if u are from except iran(because I donot know iran case distribution due to this)
SpaceN said:
I'm getting more and more skeptical on the thought that everyone will be current, now...
do you think Asia will hit at least 10k?

I'm AS9xxx, by the way
Click to expand...
 
i have made this for all even pie charts are there for explanation follow this link ya its of feb 2 data https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bzdg...VvY2oyT3M/edit
vladek15425 said:
Thanks for summing up the data for us rayme.
But I would like to ask you if its possible to sum it untill feb 02. Because CN are all ready in feb and march ! So the best is to calculate the readys that had a chance for interview already, and compare it to the same amount of seectees incl family, so we will have a better view of how many people went through the interview process and how many got visa granted !
Thanks rayme
Click to expand...
 
Rayme said:
ok hmmm... let me explain what i think it is....guys be sure Nepali cases are distributed till 15k... if it KCC was in any mind of keeping Nepal in special cutoff then it would have done earlier... if u see ceac data Nepal was clearly bottle neck for asia still KCC chosed other way increasing just 150 and 250 for two successive months.. why Nepal will not be in special cutoff because Nepal cases are now in range of 280(approx) per thousand(you may be thinking how)...I donot like being joked by anyone but its now confirmed that 4800 people are now processing for visa from Nepal out of which 1705 have been finished till march that means now 3100-3200 left which is distributed till 15000 in Nepal's case and after that it is dispersed lighly upto 27K..so I donot think KCC for any reason will put special cutoff but ya its sure that after range of 13k there will be quota full for Nepali cases and may also for iran too within 10k after that like in previous some year cutoff may rocket increase of 10k also who knows..
Click to expand...

If no special cut off and KCC remain with 1000 increment each month, it only reached 10k CN by end of the fiscal year and based on the CEAC pattern, with 10K CN, it only can issue 6000 visas and that is not enough for meet the quota. I don't think Nepal will hit 13k range. I think it will hit 9k to 10k range when the country limit reached because of the high success rate.
 
Rayme said:
Till march cuttoff this is distribution for
africa:
issued=4541,ready=6536 ,refused=756, AP= 895
ASIA:
issue:1699 refused:91 AP:1051 ready:1872
EU:
issued:4588 refused:309 AP:1065 REady:5536
OC:
issued:138 refused:39 AP:38 ready:270
SA:
issued:328 refused:82 AP:67 ready:406
Click to expand...

What is difference between "ready" & "issued"?
 
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