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Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2013

Hi Simon and others, do you honestly think that africa 83xxx is safe and that i will get an interview? if yes when? I am a bit worried now guyz
 
bertilthier said:
Hi Simon and others, do you honestly think that africa 83xxx is safe and that i will get an interview? if yes when? I am a bit worried now guyz
Click to expand...

Good morning Bertilthier.

After my 2011 vs 2014 analysis I have been saying that cutoffs could hit around 85/90k.

However, we recently got a couple of pieces of information that are helpful to the understanding and positive for AF. Those bits of information were the 2013 figures and the other was what I believe is very strong evidence that there will be more than 50k visas available - possibly very close to the full 55k. This is because of the reducing impact of NACARA. So to explain those things in more detail...

First, we got DV2013 official data that demonstrated a small reduction in AF visas issued (from 52k selectees). We don't believe they hit a quota limit (because we didn't have reports about any late cutoff like there was in Iran). So, the success rate for 2013 was lower than 2011. In 2011 AF got 24k visas from 51k selectees - 1k more visas from 1k less selectees! That is very good news for AF, because if you apply the 2013 success rate to 2014 selectees you get a demand of 27,423 - a couple of thousand less than I had been predicting. It is still more than AF can get so some will miss out BUT it is not as bad as I thought up to a couple of days ago.

Secondly the NACARA impact is that we know the DV lottery has "up to 5000" visas taken for the NACARA program so we have assumed there has been a 50k limit. Some years have gone over 50k slightly and 2013 was like that - hitting 51080. However a few weeks ago I started to suspect that the impact of NACARA must be reducing and I speculated that it might be down to a trickle, and in that case that would allow the DV program to reclaim and use most of those 5000 visas allocated to NACARA. Yesterday we got hold of (thanks to Raevsky and House409) the NACARA data and another document that describes how the 5k were used to repay the NACARA impact over a period of years. In short, we have I believe confirmed that NACARA will only take a tiny amount of the 5000 visas in DV2014 - and that could allow us to see over 54k DV visas issued (which would increase the visas for AF by around 1.5k). That is a huge boost of around 3000 to 4000 selectees (and therefore 6000 to 8000 case numbers).

Quotas for the regions are also a hugely important factor. So - we know the quota last year was something greater than 23k. AF have been getting around 24k visas - and I think they could well get that again (especially due to the second piece of information). So - the shortage in demand (based on 2013 success rates) may only be about 3000. Roughly speaking - that equates to about 15k.

SO, because of the last couple of days I am slightly more confident about AF - and now think cases up to 90/95 should be safe. Things get a bit risky after that.

Bertilthier, that was long way to say "don't worry, you'll be fine" but I wanted to explain the detail behind the statement.
 
Thanks Britsimon,much appreciated.Lets hope for the best

britsimon said:
Good morning Bertilthier.

After my 2011 vs 2014 analysis I have been saying that cutoffs could hit around 85/90k.

However, we recently got a couple of pieces of information that are helpful to the understanding and positive for AF. Those bits of information were the 2013 figures and the other was what I believe is very strong evidence that there will be more than 50k visas available - possibly very close to the full 55k. This is because of the reducing impact of NACARA. So to explain those things in more detail...

First, we got DV2013 official data that demonstrated a small reduction in AF visas issued (from 52k selectees). We don't believe they hit a quota limit (because we didn't have reports about any late cutoff like there was in Iran). So, the success rate for 2013 was lower than 2011. In 2011 AF got 24k visas from 51k selectees - 1k more visas from 1k less selectees! That is very good news for AF, because if you apply the 2013 success rate to 2014 selectees you get a demand of 27,423 - a couple of thousand less than I had been predicting. It is still more than AF can get so some will miss out BUT it is not as bad as I thought up to a couple of days ago.

Secondly the NACARA impact is that we know the DV lottery has "up to 5000" visas taken for the NACARA program so we have assumed there has been a 50k limit. Some years have gone over 50k slightly and 2013 was like that - hitting 51080. However a few weeks ago I started to suspect that the impact of NACARA must be reducing and I speculated that it might be down to a trickle, and in that case that would allow the DV program to reclaim and use most of those 5000 visas allocated to NACARA. Yesterday we got hold of (thanks to Raevsky and House409) the NACARA data and another document that describes how the 5k were used to repay the NACARA impact over a period of years. In short, we have I believe confirmed that NACARA will only take a tiny amount of the 5000 visas in DV2014 - and that could allow us to see over 54k DV visas issued (which would increase the visas for AF by around 1.5k). That is a huge boost of around 3000 to 4000 selectees (and therefore 6000 to 8000 case numbers).

Quotas for the regions are also a hugely important factor. So - we know the quota last year was something greater than 23k. AF have been getting around 24k visas - and I think they could well get that again (especially due to the second piece of information). So - the shortage in demand (based on 2013 success rates) may only be about 3000. Roughly speaking - that equates to about 15k.

SO, because of the last couple of days I am slightly more confident about AF - and now think cases up to 90/95 should be safe. Things get a bit risky after that.

Bertilthier, that was long way to say "don't worry, you'll be fine" but I wanted to explain the detail behind the statement.
Click to expand...
 
c1984 said:
I think they set AS at 4,325 so that it is not a full month behind last year (even if only by 25).
Click to expand...

Hi C1984

Hop AS 4325 is for march ,Pls correct me if i am wrong. then we have behind 875 in asia with comparing to the last year.

CN - 2014AS000104**
 
NAV2014 said:
Hi C1984

Hop AS 4325 is for march ,Pls correct me if i am wrong. then we have behind 875 in asia with comparing to the last year.

CN - 2014AS000104**
Click to expand...

You are correct, March was at 5200 in 2013. February 2013 was 4300 so that is why I have said this year is (almost) a full month behind last year.
 
britsimon said:
Your number is absolutely fine.
Click to expand...

Dear Simon, you are a guardian angel! :D This is like 75748724678th time you assure me that my number is fine, but due to previous years and those bulletins that never gone above 33k (excluding the 2012 results) I am a bit worried, if this doesn't go well, I don't know if I will ever find a way to go to US.
 
tearshred said:
Dear Simon, you are a guardian angel! :D This is like 75748724678th time you assure me that my number is fine, but due to previous years and those bulletins that never gone above 33k (excluding the 2012 results) I am a bit worried, if this doesn't go well, I don't know if I will ever find a way to go to US.
Click to expand...

Your number is lower than even the most pessimistic estimates now. There is good evidence to suggest there will be more visas overall than we had been expecting previously. The VB has EU still ahead of 2013 (where the cutoff went to 33k by July) so we should see similar progress to last year (and then two extra months of cutoffs increasing rather than seeing current). So for the 75748724679th time please do not worry anymore. Time to start thinking about where to move, what to do once you are there and so on...
 
britsimon said:
Good morning Bertilthier.

After my 2011 vs 2014 analysis I have been saying that cutoffs could hit around 85/90k.

However, we recently got a couple of pieces of information that are helpful to the understanding and positive for AF. Those bits of information were the 2013 figures and the other was what I believe is very strong evidence that there will be more than 50k visas available - possibly very close to the full 55k. This is because of the reducing impact of NACARA. So to explain those things in more detail...

First, we got DV2013 official data that demonstrated a small reduction in AF visas issued (from 52k selectees). We don't believe they hit a quota limit (because we didn't have reports about any late cutoff like there was in Iran). So, the success rate for 2013 was lower than 2011. In 2011 AF got 24k visas from 51k selectees - 1k more visas from 1k less selectees! That is very good news for AF, because if you apply the 2013 success rate to 2014 selectees you get a demand of 27,423 - a couple of thousand less than I had been predicting. It is still more than AF can get so some will miss out BUT it is not as bad as I thought up to a couple of days ago.

Secondly the NACARA impact is that we know the DV lottery has "up to 5000" visas taken for the NACARA program so we have assumed there has been a 50k limit. Some years have gone over 50k slightly and 2013 was like that - hitting 51080. However a few weeks ago I started to suspect that the impact of NACARA must be reducing and I speculated that it might be down to a trickle, and in that case that would allow the DV program to reclaim and use most of those 5000 visas allocated to NACARA. Yesterday we got hold of (thanks to Raevsky and House409) the NACARA data and another document that describes how the 5k were used to repay the NACARA impact over a period of years. In short, we have I believe confirmed that NACARA will only take a tiny amount of the 5000 visas in DV2014 - and that could allow us to see over 54k DV visas issued (which would increase the visas for AF by around 1.5k). That is a huge boost of around 3000 to 4000 selectees (and therefore 6000 to 8000 case numbers).

Quotas for the regions are also a hugely important factor. So - we know the quota last year was something greater than 23k. AF have been getting around 24k visas - and I think they could well get that again (especially due to the second piece of information). So - the shortage in demand (based on 2013 success rates) may only be about 3000. Roughly speaking - that equates to about 15k.

SO, because of the last couple of days I am slightly more confident about AF - and now think cases up to 90/95 should be safe. Things get a bit risky after that.

Bertilthier, that was long way to say "don't worry, you'll be fine" but I wanted to explain the detail behind the statement.
Click to expand...

Hi Simon and thanks for the detail,

Don't you think that DV-2014 140k selectees is because of NACARA quota being added to the DV or you still think it was because of DV-2012 results ?
 
britsimon said:
Your number is lower than even the most pessimistic estimates now. There is good evidence to suggest there will be more visas overall than we had been expecting previously. The VB has EU still ahead of 2013 (where the cutoff went to 33k by July) so we should see similar progress to last year (and then two extra months of cutoffs increasing rather than seeing current). So for the 75748724679th time please do not worry anymore. Time to start thinking about where to move, what to do once you are there and so on...
Click to expand...

Sir yes sir! So I suppose we shall get a beer in Vegas when I move. LOL
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi Simon and thanks for the detail,

Don't you think that DV-2014 140k selectees is because of NACARA quota being added to the DV or you still think it was because of DV-2012 results ?
Click to expand...

2012 results - I would say with about 90% certainty (probably higher than that really).

The NACARA thing is not a surprise to KCC - it is only an exciting thing to us because we have just come to understand it. However, they would have been well aware of the gradual tapering over the last few years so that would not explain a sudden enormous jump like going from 105 (plus the second draw) to 140 in one year.

However the 2012 underfilling was an extraordinary (unprecedented) event and if you take 2012 success rates and calculate back how many visas you need you get almost exactly 140k. You then apply the quotas split to what you think is the required pool and hey presto you get the DV2014 scenario.
 
britsimon said:
2012 results - I would say with about 90% certainty (probably higher than that really).

The NACARA thing is not a surprise to KCC - it is only an exciting thing to us because we have just come to understand it. However, they would have been well aware of the gradual tapering over the last few years so that would not explain a sudden enormous jump like going from 105 (plus the second draw) to 140 in one year.

However the 2012 underfilling was an extraordinary (unprecedented) event and if you take 2012 success rates and calculate back how many visas you need you get almost exactly 140k. You then apply the quotas split to what you think is the required pool and hey presto you get the DV2014 scenario.
Click to expand...

Thanks

I think hope is all what I got. Expectations will not work for me.
 
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