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Upcoming month's visa bulletin: February 2013

Ayoub said:
Hi Friends
My case number is AS78** from Iran. I'm becoming worried about getting GC with this progress. Since I have to do AOS and I think I needs much time than embassy, what is your opinions about it?
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Ayoub,

There's a memo in place which lets DV applicants who want to do AOS to send their documents as soon as they see their case number is less than cutoff number announced in advance notice section. It means that, for example, if in April visa bulletin (which is published around March 10th), you see that May cutoff number is more than your case number, you can send your package on March 10th, which is 50 days before your number becomes current. This means that AOS is still slower that CP, but not too much.
Check this spreadsheet below to learn more:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AozhLxh12qzYdDU3WkxHaFFtdVI4Y01oTFc3ZnZlb1E#gid=0

By the way, I am also from Iran and also doing AOS. My number is AS59**
 
sardis said:
Ayoub,

There's a memo in place which lets DV applicants who want to do AOS to send their documents as soon as they see their case number is less than cutoff number announced in advance notice section. It means that, for example, if in April visa bulletin (which is published around March 10th), you see that May cutoff number is more than your case number, you can send your package on March 10th, which is 50 days before your number becomes current. This means that AOS is still slower that CP, but not too much.
Check this spreadsheet below to learn more:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AozhLxh12qzYdDU3WkxHaFFtdVI4Y01oTFc3ZnZlb1E#gid=0

By the way, I am also from Iran and also doing AOS. My number is AS59**
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sardis,

You are correct in reading the wording of the new PM. However in practice they are only accepting the package 1 month earlier than the actual 'current' month. Many people, including me, had their packages returned when filed too early and only accepted when less than 1 month remained until their actual 'current' date.

mokhless.
 
britsimon said:
Thanks for posting that Blue. Glad to see our team were accurate with what they could get, despite the "KCC ladies" team attempts to foil us.
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you are welcome Simon. You are shining as sun in forums and "KCC ladies" needs use the sunglass :cool:
 
Now whit this 20050 for Europe I think that I need to make the plan B because I dont think that I will have a interview .congratulation for who is current .
 
ceskhermina said:
Now whit this 20050 for Europe I think that I need to make the plan B because I dont think that I will have a interview .congratulation for who is current .
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Plan B would be a good idea - but be ready to jump on the DV wagon again if it comes through!
 
ceskhermina said:
Yes off course
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Don't give up the natural maturation of selectees will be more and more pronounced as time goes by. Ie. the status of things now cannot fully be used to predict how it is going to end. The maturation variable is of course unknown and people don't consider it in their calculations, but it is real and will cause the numbers to surge beyond what can be prognosticated using a linear approach on current data. But plan b and c is always good.
 
I would like to address the well known elephant in the (fo)rum - the super high number of people selected this year (without getting too much in to detail). From what I understand we have 3 theories (more?):

- KCC had some unknown data and decided for whatever the hell the reason to increase the number of selected (more holes, more fraud, more AP, terrorist threat, they don't like brunettes, whatever)
- KCC used 2012 as baseline data to predict number required to fill the quota and knowing that 2012 data is fu#$¥#^ed they got it wrong
-KCC selected more cause there will be more NACARA visas available


And there is also so called Full Sloner meaning that because of the software it will be like Oprah's show where everyone gets a car and a green card :)


Did I miss anything?
 
franko said:
I would like to address the well known elephant in the (fo)rum - the super high number of people selected this year (without getting too much in to detail). From what I understand we have 3 theories (more?):

- KCC had some unknown data and decided for whatever the hell the reason to increase the number of selected (more holes, more fraud, more AP, terrorist threat, they don't like brunettes, whatever)
- KCC used 2012 as baseline data to predict number required to fill the quota and knowing that 2012 data is fu#$¥#^ed they got it wrong
-KCC selected more cause there will be more NACARA visas available


And there is also so called Full Sloner meaning that because of the software it will be like Oprah's show where everyone gets a car and a green card :)


Did I miss anything?
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Brilliant. No you didn't miss anything although I doubt the NACARA thing because they will have been aware that the tapering has been happening for a while. Basically you have three choices if you include the Oprah scenario.
 
Blue 1 said:
Feb numbers Officially issued by visa bulletin as bellow now:

Region

All DV Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed Separately



AFRICA
25,000

Except: Egypt 18,300
Ethiopia 24,700
Nigeria 9,400

ASIA
4,325

EUROPE
20,050
Except: Uzbekistan 13,900
NORTH AMERICA (BAHAMAS)
8

OCEANIA
800

SOUTH AMERICA, and the CARIBBEAN
985
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pitbull said:
Excellent prediction.
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You got one almost right.... I would have preferred your figures, but as usual you are wrong.
 
ceskhermina said:
Now whit this 20050 for Europe I think that I need to make the plan B because I dont think that I will have a interview .congratulation for who is current .
Click to expand...

Common dont get upset. It is too early to lose your hope.
Just Wait another 6 month , there is no need for pessimistic guesses.
 
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