Thank you Rigateika for taking the time to explain Sloners theory. I tease Sloner and get frustrated with his stubbornness but I don't think he is a fool. However, what you are explaining is all very nice and sounds reasonable but everything there relates to the selection process and the case numbers. That has NOTHING to do with the processing of visas, the global quotas (which are not published) and so on. If we look at the historical allocations between 2003 and 2012 for AF and EU we see this pattern.
AF - 19,227 17,146 19,118 19,548 18,046 22,960 24,648 24,745 24,015 13,582
EU - 22,321 21,721 19,330 15,626 12,633 14,788 14,241 16,083 16,378 13,093
So in 2003 EU received more visas than AF - in fact if you go back to the early days of the lottery you will see this was a much more dramatic split. However that trend has been slowly reversing and since 2006 AF has been getting more visas than EU - around 50% more from 2007 onwards (or a ration of about 3:2). The last column above is 2012 - where the numbers dropped dramatically and AF and EU got about the same number of visas (1:1 ratio). That was the chaos year and it is perfectly logical and reasonable to imagine that AF region (with lower technology access) was much more affected by the cancellation/redraw since more people would not have known about the redraw.
I can't imagine anyone basing a statistical analysis on 2012 results, but Sloner did just that. He looked at the number of selectees for each region, the number of visas and came up with a select/visa approved ratio that he then applied to 2014 selectees. However, that ratio is horribly flawed because of the ratio, so when you apply his ratio to 2013 numbers, it doesn't work - the numbers don't fit. Then if you consider the results he is predicting he is saying the AF/EU split will be 16/19 - when for years now (and in 2013 also) the split has been 3:2. I can imagine a slight change happening each year, but not such a dramatic change. Again, that is ONLY possible if you start with a bad set of data - which is exactly what he has done.
Furthermore, there is no logical reason to think the selection software has any bearing on the process that gets from selectee to visa approval (because the software is only influencing the process UP TO the point of getting the selectee list), but he ignored that also. So, whilst the points you describe above are probably accurate, you need to make a giant leap of confusion to get to the numbers he has achieved.
Based on that, Sloner believes that ALL the 140k selectees will get visas - and that is leading him to spread the news of happiness and light to all around - which I think is not a fair thing to do.
