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Upcoming month's visa bulletin: December 2013 (Coming Soon)

Ameer said:
I think if we know the number of selectees submitted to kcc ,we can predictive if the all region will be current or not,i mean all calculation depending in the documents submitted to kcc.
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We won't know that for a long time - USCIS haven't published any figures at all for DV2013 so the best 2013 data we have is the scraped data from CEAC. We won't have that until after 2014 has ended.
 
britsimon said:
No AOS globally is around 5% of cases.

The reason I deducted 15% was because the demand for visas according to Rafokbo76 is around 58,000 (for CP only) whilst the supply is 50,000 (of which AOS is probably around 2500). So - His numbers show an overdemand of about 20%. I've chosen to go a bit under that (to 15%) to show the highest possible numbers of visas that could be allocated - and in the end probably a good split once AOS is added back in.
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Ah

Now I got it, thanks
 
britsimon said:
No AOS globally is around 5% of cases.

The reason I deducted 15% was because the demand for visas according to Rafokbo76 is around 58,000 (for CP only) whilst the supply is 50,000 (of which AOS is probably around 2500). So - His numbers show an overdemand of about 20%. I've chosen to go a bit under that (to 15%) to show the highest possible numbers of visas that could be allocated - and in the end probably a good split once AOS is added back in.
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100% simon ;-)
 
One thing that you might want to consider in making any predictions for AS is that this year the return rate for Iran might be significantly higher than the previous years. Over the last year Iran was hit by crippling sanctions, its currency lost 70% of its value, and the political pressure mounted in the first part of the year. I will not be surprised if more and more Iranians clutch this opportunity to leave the country; more than prior years.

Now, if in the prior years Iran would already reach their country-specific cap, this might not be a significant driver. Otherwise, it may very well be.
 
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c1984 said:
One thing that you might want to consider in making any predictions for AS is that this year the return rate for Iran might be significantly higher than the previous years. Over the last year Iran was hit by crippling sanctions, its currency lost 70% of its value, and the political pressure mounted in the first part of the year. I will not be surprised if more and more Iranians clutch this opportunity to leave the country; more than prior years.

Now, if in the prior years Iran would already reach their country-specific cap, this might not be a significant driver. Otherwise, it may very well be.
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Iran reached its DV2013 cap on 20 September. I don't know about prior years.

http://turkey.usembassy.gov/mobile//wn_92013.html
 
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c1984 said:
One thing that you might want to consider in making any predictions for AS is that this year the return rate for Iran might be significantly higher than the previous years. Over the last year Iran was hit by crippling sanctions, its currency lost 70% of its value, and the political pressure mounted in the first part of the year. I will not be surprised if more and more Iranians clutch this opportunity to leave the country; more than prior years.

Now, if in the prior years Iran would already reach their country-specific cap, this might not be a significant driver. Otherwise, it may very well be.
Click to expand...

SusieQQQ said:
Iran reached its DV2013 cap on 20 September. I don't know about prior years.

http://turkey.usembassy.gov/mobile//wn_92013.html
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Right, so in theory they would hit their country limit and that would then free up some case numbers for use within the AS region. Is that right?
 
Simon
I got no clue how OAS is proceeded, and why do they go through a slow process
Can u elaborate on this thanks
 
Sloner, before you say a thing - those three things (response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate) have NOTHING to do with the software used to select the winners.
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Software is responsible for duplicates, errors, fraudulent applications and intermediaries.
 
vladek15425 said:
Simon
I got no clue how OAS is proceeded, and why do they go through a slow process
Can u elaborate on this thanks
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AOS - Adjustment of Status is for people that are in the US already on some type of temporary visa - like for example a student visa. Because of the DV win, those people can change (adjust) their status to that of a LPR - Green Card. The process for doing that is different to the DV process and has a whole different set of forms and procedures. The AOS process is not specific to the DV process so it generally is not geared to a process that has finite dates (like the Sept 30th deadline). So the process is different, more complex and has to go through field offices in the USA rather than the embassies we use. It is slower, generally speaking.
 
britsimon said:
AOS - Adjustment of Status is for people that are in the US already on some type of temporary visa - like for example a student visa. Because of the DV win, those people can change (adjust) their status to that of a LPR - Green Card. The process for doing that is different to the DV process and has a whole different set of forms and procedures. The AOS process is not specific to the DV process so it generally is not geared to a process that has finite dates (like the Sept 30th deadline). So the process is different, more complex and has to go through field offices in the USA rather than the embassies we use. It is slower, generally speaking.
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Many thanks
If u in the usa illegaly can u play dv and do aos ?or u got to be legal ?
 
britsimon said:
We won't know that for a long time - USCIS haven't published any figures at all for DV2013 so the best 2013 data we have is the scraped data from CEAC. We won't have that until after 2014 has ended.
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I mean to get 100% prediction ,we have to know the document submitted to back for DV 2014, otherwise it is difficult and just suggestions,with my appreciation for all of you.
 
SusieQQQ said:
Iran reached its DV2013 cap on 20 September. I don't know about prior years.

http://turkey.usembassy.gov/mobile//wn_92013.html
Click to expand...

britsimon said:
Right, so in theory they would hit their country limit and that would then free up some case numbers for use within the AS region. Is that right?
Click to expand...

If Iran would not reach the cap in the past and assuming they will certainly reach the cap this year, it would mean that Iran will use more visas than before and less visas available for the others.


However, knowing that Iran reached the cap last year, this should not have an impact on the number of visas available to others. It is just the same as it was last year.

In regards to the progression, Iran will reach the cap at lower CNs than before. So towards the beginning of the FY, the progression will be slower than before (higher return rate among the lower CNs) but will pick up soon after Iran reaches the cap or a country-specific cut-off is introduced for Iran. The highest non-Iranian CN that will get a visa should remain the same as before, assuming everything else equal.
 
britsimon said:
Thanks very much for that. It now shows about 58,000 visas would be needed to satisfy the likely demand (based on the response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate being the same as 2013).

Sloner, before you say a thing - those three things (response rate, interview rate and issued/abandoned/denial/admin rate) have NOTHING to do with the software used to select the winners.

Given that the CP numbers need to fit within the 50k LESS the AOS cases it looks like there will be about 10k too few visas. So - if we wanted to predict the visas issued then we would expect about 20% less than your issued number for each region. Correct?

I would reduce that by a bit because of the CEAC data concern I have explained above - so lets knock everything down by 15%

AF - 20625
EU - 16867
AS - 9739
OC - 939
SA - 1255

Those numbers sound about right to me. They come in just under 50k BUT don't leave a lot of room for AOS, so I suspect these would be about the highest we could possibly see - likely a tad less in some regions.

However, when I do the same exercise on the max case number interviewed column (which does not influence the projections above), it doesn't look right - and I think that goes back to this odd thing about the CEAC data cutting off too soon.
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Due to the conversation about NACARA, I'm thinking there should be some more available visas. So - there is a good chance that these numbers could increase slightly - which would be awesome news...
 
HI Guys..
I am DV 2014 from Asia...I have now send all the documents to KCC..However, i forget to write the CN at the top of every paper that i send to KCC which is their instruction.. So, now i am really worried, does it disqualify or delay my case just because of it, i want to know you guys opinion...
 
Hi Everyone,
I received 2 email from Visa Bulletin.The first one is regular explain the numbers and second one is look like they made wrong with number and They tried to correct it.This Is the second e-mail from KCC

From: CA-TSG
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 4:56 PM
To: Horner, Yoko J
Cc: CA-TSG
Subject: RE: Please publish to TSG ASAP
Attachments: Visa Bulletin For January 2014.html

Hi Yoko,

Here is the visa bulletin html file.

Thanks

Vincent

From: Horner, Yoko J
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 3:33 PM
To: CA-TSG
Subject: RE: Please publish to TSG ASAP

Thanks George – Looks great! Will be waiting for the new HTML file.

Best, Yoko

From: CA-TSG
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 3:31 PM
To: Horner, Yoko J; CA-TSG
Subject: RE: Please publish to TSG ASAP

The page was published successfully and the associate pdf was uploaded. Vincent is working on the HTML file for you and will send it to you when he has completed it.


Content ID
Status
Date
Location
Revision ID
6228
success
12/12/2013 3:24:36 PM
/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6228.html
17


Thanks,

George Young
Business Analyst
Creative Information Technology, Inc.
U.S. Department of State | Bureau of Consular Affairs
(T) (703) 483-5044 | (E) YoungGT@state.gov

CA/CST/ESD
Enterprise Systems Development


This email is UNCLASSIFIED.


From: Horner, Yoko J
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 2:09 PM
To: CA-TSG
Subject: Please publish to TSG ASAP
Importance: High

Hello,

There was a mistake on the Visa Bulletin – can you please publish file content 6228 and the attached PDF to TSG asap? The PDF goes in the /pdf folder and will replace an existing file.

Also, can you please make an HTML file of file content 6228 and send it to me?

Thanks!

Best,

Yoko J. Horner
Visa Specialist
Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division (CA/VO/F/I)
Ph: (202) 485-7615
Email: HornerYJ@state.gov

This email is Sensitive but Unclassified based on the definitions provided in 12 FAM 540.

Any information in this transmission pertaining to the issuance or refusal of visas or permits to enter the United States shall be considered confidential under Section 222(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) [8 U.S.C. Section 1202]. Access to and use of such information must be solely for the formulation, amendment, administration, or enforcement of the immigration, nationality, and other laws of the United States under INA 222(f) and as specified in FAM guidance. If you have received such information in error, do not review, retransmit, disclose, disseminate, use, or take any action in reliance upon this information, and contact the sender as soon as possible.

This email is UNCLASSIFIED.
 
kahta02 said:
Hi Everyone,
I received 2 email from Visa Bulletin.The first one is regular explain the numbers and second one is look like they made wrong with number and They tried to correct it.This Is the second e-mail from KCC

From: CA-TSG
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 4:56 PM
To: Horner, Yoko J
Cc: CA-TSG
Subject: RE: Please publish to TSG ASAP
Attachments: Visa Bulletin For January 2014.html

Hi Yoko,

Here is the visa bulletin html file.

Thanks

Vincent

From: Horner, Yoko J
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 3:33 PM
To: CA-TSG
Subject: RE: Please publish to TSG ASAP

Thanks George – Looks great! Will be waiting for the new HTML file.

Best, Yoko

From: CA-TSG
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 3:31 PM
To: Horner, Yoko J; CA-TSG
Subject: RE: Please publish to TSG ASAP

The page was published successfully and the associate pdf was uploaded. Vincent is working on the HTML file for you and will send it to you when he has completed it.


Content ID
Status
Date
Location
Revision ID
6228
success
12/12/2013 3:24:36 PM
/visa/bulletin/bulletin_6228.html
17


Thanks,

George Young
Business Analyst
Creative Information Technology, Inc.
U.S. Department of State | Bureau of Consular Affairs
(T) (703) 483-5044 | (E) YoungGT@state.gov

CA/CST/ESD
Enterprise Systems Development


This email is UNCLASSIFIED.


From: Horner, Yoko J
Sent: Thursday, December 12, 2013 2:09 PM
To: CA-TSG
Subject: Please publish to TSG ASAP
Importance: High

Hello,

There was a mistake on the Visa Bulletin – can you please publish file content 6228 and the attached PDF to TSG asap? The PDF goes in the /pdf folder and will replace an existing file.

Also, can you please make an HTML file of file content 6228 and send it to me?

Thanks!

Best,

Yoko J. Horner
Visa Specialist
Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division (CA/VO/F/I)
Ph: (202) 485-7615
Email: HornerYJ@state.gov

This email is Sensitive but Unclassified based on the definitions provided in 12 FAM 540.

Any information in this transmission pertaining to the issuance or refusal of visas or permits to enter the United States shall be considered confidential under Section 222(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) [8 U.S.C. Section 1202]. Access to and use of such information must be solely for the formulation, amendment, administration, or enforcement of the immigration, nationality, and other laws of the United States under INA 222(f) and as specified in FAM guidance. If you have received such information in error, do not review, retransmit, disclose, disseminate, use, or take any action in reliance upon this information, and contact the sender as soon as possible.

This email is UNCLASSIFIED.
Click to expand...


Interesting! There was indeed a mistake (missing country cutoff). They sent this to you by mistake???
 
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