Upcoming month's visa bulletin: December 2013 (Coming Soon)

[SusieQQQ]

Helo
Do they publish schedules in all the us ambassies ?
Thanks

No idea. Just did a search for Ankara after sloner's post.

 

[vladek15425]

No idea. Just did a search for Ankara after sloner's post.

Ok thanks, just thought may be they do publish for all the dv selectees that's current at the ambassies. Beside the fact that those mentioned in ur link are requiered to send they docs via post...

 

[Tazmania]

The only information that I can get out of the schedule is that 2014EU9763 is the highest number they are processing so far with EU numbers current up to 12500. Could mean the have no higher numbers to process in Ankara or that the have a huge backlog.

 

[Mijoro]

Hello everyone. We Raevskш and Britisimon holiday today.He laughs best who laughs last. They're smart guys, but they lack logic and common sense. None of them looked schedule in Ankara in December. Say thank all the Republicans that dragged so long budget.

Children let this be a lesson to you, say NO to drugs.

 

[Britsimon]

children let this be a lesson to you, say no to drugs.

roflmao

 

[SusieQQQ]

The only information that I can get out of the schedule is that 2014EU9763 is the highest number they are processing so far with EU numbers current up to 12500. Could mean the have no higher numbers to process in Ankara or that the have a huge backlog.

From my quick scan, there weren't an awful lot of numbers there. I wouldn't expect it to be a necessarily representative distribution ...especially as more of the numbers are Asian as they process Iran there too...

Children let this be a lesson to you, say NO to drugs.

 

[franko]

From my quick scan, there weren't an awful lot of numbers there. I wouldn't expect it to be a necessarily representative distribution ...especially as more of the numbers are Asian as they process Iran there too...

2014EU9799 is the highest number scheduled in Warsaw on 13th November with cut-off being 9800 for NOV, considering that they mostly process EU numbers with an African number appearing from time to time that leaves the other half of the month to process higher numbers...or they might wait till December and play it by the book and start processing numbers up to 12500. So far except for higher number of selectees the DV process seems to be very similar to recent years (excluding 2012).

 

[rigateika]

The only information that I can get out of the schedule is that 2014EU9763 is the highest number they are processing so far with EU numbers current up to 12500. Could mean the have no higher numbers to process in Ankara or that the have a huge backlog.

I think you got the point Sloner is trying to deliver.
He is saying that Republicans caused the government shutdown resulted in the backlog.
How backlog happened? Most of KCC employees are contractors. Even though KCC federal employees were at work - contractors were furloughed for 2 weeks. So when they were back - there was 2 weeks workload to process. He is saying - look at Ankara December schedule. There is only one case in December so far - Dec 19 case 2014EU8556. In his opinion that means that KCC is really behind the pace they would normally be.
For that reason January cutoff is only 700 up instead of 2,500-3,000 as he predicted.
I think he predicted 15,000-15,500 for January.

Sloner - did I explain your point correct?

 

[Sloner]

Sloner - did I explain your point correct?

Yes. You are absolutely right. Who form processing, 2 weeks if government employees did not work.

Trust me Sloner, it gives me no pleasure at all that your theory is not correct, but the thing is your ideas are a fairy tale based on your assumption that the ONLY YEAR that had a redraw is a statistical model for any other year. Your method doesn't work against 2013 history and won't work against DV2014. The only way your model CAN work is if we have another year where the first selections are all cancelled and there is a redraw of the whole thing - and personally I wouldn't hold my breath for that one.

I think this theory is true.I'm not clairvoyant to see the upcoming battles in Congress.

 

[Britsimon]

I think you got the point Sloner is trying to deliver.
He is saying that Republicans caused the government shutdown resulted in the backlog.
How backlog happened? Most of KCC employees are contractors. Even though KCC federal employees were at work - contractors were furloughed for 2 weeks. So when they were back - there was 2 weeks workload to process. He is saying - look at Ankara December schedule. There is only one case in December so far - Dec 19 case 2014EU8556. In his opinion that means that KCC is really behind the pace they would normally be.
For that reason January cutoff is only 700 up instead of 2,500-3,000 as he predicted.
I think he predicted 15,000-15,500 for January.

Sloner - did I explain your point correct?

Thanks for translating. Very few people speak Slonerish.

Where did you get the information that most KCC employees are contractors?

I'm completely ready to buy the "Shutdown = less appointments" theory (we have talked about it before) and I DO expect a big jump in the next bulletin. However the problem with Sloners theory is that he is basing his analysis on 2012, so as I have explained before I believe his estimates will be accurate early on and then fall apart like a Russian made car.

 

[rigateika]

Thanks for translating. Very few people speak Slonerish.

Where did you get the information that most KCC employees are contractors?

I'm completely ready to buy the "Shutdown = less appointments" theory (we have talked about it before) and I DO expect a big jump in the next bulletin. However the problem with Sloners theory is that he is basing his analysis on 2012, so as I have explained before I believe his estimates will be accurate early on and then fall apart like a Russian made car.

Glad I could help.

"The majority of KCC staff are provided through a contractor, and the contract provides for the ability to
adjust to changes in demand for services."

GAO report of Sep 2012 on Border Security, page 29.

http://www.gao.gov/assets/650/647871.pdf

 

[Eucn]

I read the schedule so Ankara is processing about 21 eu cn for the coming month. Actually not much. I think that as long as the big countries like Ukraine Uzbekistan Russia and Turkey do not have their own cut off numbers published Europe is still fine. After all these countries have about 25% of the winners I should think.

This is probably more interesting - albeit bad news for some:
Also from Ankara embassy website:
--
PLEASE NOTE: Due to high demand, we are currently experiencing delays in administrative processing. Most cases require 3-6 months to complete their administrative processing. However, please understand that this process has no time constraints and may even take longer.

We will not respond to any inquires for cases pending for less than 6 months.
--

 

[Britsimon]

Glad I could help.

"The majority of KCC staff are provided through a contractor, and the contract provides for the ability to
adjust to changes in demand for services."

GAO report of Sep 2012 on Border Security, page 29.

http://www.gao.gov/assets/650/647871.pdf

Excellent - thanks for that. I think it is a reasonable assumption that contractors at KCC might have been furloughed during the shutdown.

It took a while, and I knew there was something useful in what he has been trying to say, but I do believe we have seen a plausible theory from Sloner!!!

Pity he is clinging to the 2012 thing...

 

[SusieQQQ]

Of course, without the schedule as published at 1 Nov last year we have no idea how the Ankara schedule looks compared to a "normal" December. We also don't know if the KCC employees that were furloughed were the ones critical for this process or, for example, the cleaners. Departments that were paid for by user fees were not supposed to be affected and visa processing was specifically mentioned as one that would continue as normal.

 

[Britsimon]

Of course, without the schedule as published at 1 Nov last year we have no idea how the Ankara schedule looks compared to a "normal" December. We also don't know if the KCC employees that were furloughed were the ones critical for this process or, for example, the cleaners. Departments that were paid for by user fees were not supposed to be affected and visa processing was specifically mentioned as one that would continue as normal.

I think the fees were paid at the embassies and covered the embassy side of the work - and I agree that this work should have continued. I also agree with your points about a normal schedule and not knowing how much impact the shutdown had... but it would be a nice explanation for the limited progress across the regions.

For regions that already had high return rates the increased return rate explanation shouldn't have been that impactful so that might be a good explanation in some regions but not all.

Another possible explanation for the disappointing progress is that they had preloaded the system with a huge number of selectees in the first three months that caused a backlog - and you could easily make that case in EU for example since it was so far ahead already. However, the same could NOT be said for OC, so that doesn't make sense either.

The furlough impact theory is neat because it is a single point of impact that would uniformly impact all regions (which is what we are seeing).

Perhaps I'm just keen to believe in something that could put us back on track with all the other theories we had been developing. The furlough theory represents a temporary glitch that can be overcome in the next month or two. That would mean we would see even higher increases than we expected and that will get a lot of people overexcited (and convince Sloner that 2012 is going to repeat), but even faced with that downside, I would rather have that explanation than the other explanations because they are too depressing.

 

[Sloner]

Of course, without the schedule as published at 1 Nov last year we have no idea how the Ankara schedule looks compared to a "normal" December. We also don't know if the KCC employees that were furloughed were the ones critical for this process or, for example, the cleaners. Departments that were paid for by user fees were not supposed to be affected and visa processing was specifically mentioned as one that would continue as normal.

I'm waiting for the schedule for December in Warsaw. I think it will explain a lot.

Excellent - thanks for that. I think it is a reasonable assumption that contractors at KCC might have been furloughed during the shutdown.
It took a while, and I knew there was something useful in what he has been trying to say, but I do believe we have seen a plausible theory from Sloner!!!
Pity he is clinging to the 2012 thing...

This theory is still alive today and has the right to exist. As soon as she dies, then say what you want.

 

[SusieQQQ]

KCC also deals with work visas and non-immigrant visas from what I understand. So a good way, if anyone had the data, to see if it's a KCC furlough effect would be to see if there are reports of all these other types of visas slowing down too.

 

[TylerMsk]

When i was in office DHL, i had meet a man who had won this year again, earlier he won in 2012 or 2013 i don't remember, he gave his e-mail to control the process and to exchange information about this dV. On the 3rd of November he sent me a letter, he asked me for my interview but i said that i haven't got and i asked him how his case is moving. He told me that he had called to KCC in November and they said that because of the lack of budget they had made the process slowly. That means why the case is too low, i don't want to believe that we will see that result and wanna to see a real picture. That guys a pity, 7 hundred cases is a real fail. We will see what happen next month, cross fingers and believe... Sloner can not know how will change cases because of this problem, he gave us numbers what can be if it will be without that ecomomic deficit and problem with budget.

 

[Britsimon]

This theory is still alive today and has the right to exist. As soon as she dies, then say what you want.

OK - what would convince you that your theory is incorrect - what thing do you believe cannot or will not happen according to your theory. For a start, you believe everyone gets a visa, and the global cutoff won't be hit - is that correct? I think you also believe AF region will end up with less visas than EU region - again is that correct?

 

[Sloner]

When i was in office DHL, i had meet a man who had won this year again, earlier he won in 2012 or 2013 i don't remember, he gave his e-mail to control the process and to exchange information about this dV. On the 3rd of November he sent me a letter, he asked me for my interview but i said that i haven't got and i asked him how his case is moving. He told me that he had called to KCC in November and they said that because of the lack of budget they had made the process slowly. That means why the case is too low, i don't want to believe that we will see that result and wanna to see a real picture. That guys a pity, 7 hundred cases is a real fail. We will see what happen next month, cross fingers and believe... Sloner can not know how will change cases because of this problem, he gave us numbers what can be if it will be without that ecomomic deficit and problem with budget.

it is yet another confirmation. Thank you for the information.

OK - what would convince you that your theory is incorrect - what thing do you believe cannot or will not happen according to your theory. For a start, you believe everyone gets a visa, and the global cutoff won't be hit - is that correct? I think you also believe AF region will end up with less visas than EU region - again is that correct?

Why Africa has received 14,000 visas DV12 at 50,000 winners? Do not tell me only that they forgot, do not know. This is complete nonsense, invented Raevskii.