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Special cutoff for Congo Democratic Republic for the next VBs ??!! not sure ....

MalcomX

MalcomX

Active Member
With 6025 selected, 'theoretically' Congo should be limited sooner or later, and this will simulate the African CNs, but

if we take a look on the DV2013, we have 4 countries with more then 4900 selected (Ngr, Gha, Egy, Eth) and the last of them was limited to 33k,

This year 4 countries have more then 5700 selected (Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia and Condo DR) which is very big and that's explain why the African CN progression is low comparing to last year, the 5th country is Cameron with only 4200 selected, so the computer had to limit all of them on the last 1st May and during the attribution of the CNs but referring to the CEAC data, we can see that the Congo CNs are spread evenly unlike the other,

Why from the beginning they attributed small CNs to: Egypt, Nigeria & Ethiopia but not for Congo? if it's a mistake:
Firstly: they will not be able to correct it,
Secondly: this will affect all Africa because the global African CNs will not be able to move faster cause of the limitation of places for appointment in Kinshasha American Embassy :( .....
 
If Congo numbers are spread out evenly to the last number (116000 or so), there is no need to limit numbers for Congo, because the last 20% of AF numbers probably will not be invited to the interview.
 
I forgot Ghana, we can see a huge concentration of Ghanian's CNs also and I don't understand why, they have only 3900 selected!!! last year Ghana's CNc were limited to 31k but no special CN for Ghana !!! so all Ghanian's were current starting from April which is not coherent ...

Ps. I don't have any problem with Ghana or Congo, I am just trying to understand this process to be able to evaluate my odds...
 
raevsky said:
If Congo numbers are spread out evenly to the last number (116000 or so), there is no need to limit numbers for Congo, because the last 20% of AF numbers probably will not be invited to the interview.
Click to expand...

spread out evenly --> I don't think that this will happen because they will have more people at the end due to the backward, otherwise all the countries will be left without CN limitation as they did for Congo,

I think that we need to make difference between two things: when they attribute the CNs on the first of May and when they make a special cutoff on the VBs, what we can see, is that the CN attribution is not coherent from the beginning (on the 1st May), Ghana with 3900 selected is limited perhaps like last year and Congo with 6000 selected is spread evenly from 1 to 116k (or even more), the question is why??!!! the second question: why all Ghanian's are current starting from April?
 
Malcom, Ghana is limited for sure this year - and I can explain.

The limit is applied during the selection process. The rules of the lottery say that everyone within a region should have the same chance of winning. For AF region, let's say that is (for arguments sake) a 1.8% chance of winning for the principal applicant.

We don't have the number of entrants for DV2014 yet so I have to use DV2013 entrant numbers and assume things are similar in DV2014, but let's list the entrants from a few countries, non limited and limited. So I am showing 2013 entrant numbers against 2014 selectee numbers - but you will get the idea.

CountryPrincipalsFamilyTotal1.8% (without Family)Actual selectees (with Family) for 2014Limited?
Morocco983142112911944317692428No
Nigeria13563966191751975571244156043Yes
Ghana9089101471221056032163603945Yes
Congo DR11709211255822965021076025No


OK so looking at that table you can see that some countries have enormous amount of entries. If you compare Morocco to Nigeria you can see the difference in entries. Nigeria has 2 million entrants including family - that is 1/6 of every entry in the world! At the standard rate on winning Nigeria should have got 24k winners (plus about 12k family members for 36k). However they only got 6k - so that shows they were limited.

Ghana has a VERY unusually low number of derivatives. So they should have got 16k winners and family would have added 2k to that.

Congo DR would only have received 2.1k winners and another 2k family members based on last years entries - but it is likely that DV2014 had more entries and we can't be sure what the winning percentage was this year. However, I think it shows that Congo DR got 6k selectees without being limited at all.

I actually think Ghana shows us that the limit is applied to the principal entry and probably at or around the 7% country limit. Once you add derivatives to those winners you see each country gets around 6k BUT Ghana has such a low derivative ratio that they only get 4k with family.

So a country that is limited gets their entries concentrated in the first 20/30k CNs whereas a non limited country should have winners spread evenly throughout the 116k case numbers.

I hope that explains things...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
britsimon said:
Malcom, Ghana is limited for sure this year - and I can explain.

The limit is applied during the selection process. The rules of the lottery say that everyone within a region should have the same chance of winning. For AF region, let's say that is (for arguments sake) a 1.8% chance of winning for the principal applicant.

We don't have the number of entrants for DV2014 yet so I have to use DV2013 entrant numbers and assume things are similar in DV2014, but let's list the entrants from a few countries, non limited and limited. So I am showing 2013 entrant numbers against 2014 selectee numbers - but you will get the idea.

CountryPrincipalsFamilyTotal1.8% (without Family)Actual selectees (with Family) for 2014Limited?
Morocco983142112911944317692428No
Nigeria13563966191751975571244156043Yes
Ghana9089101471221056032163603945Yes
Congo DR11709211255822965021076025No


OK so looking at that table you can see that some countries have enormous amount of entries. If you compare Morocco to Nigeria you can see the difference in entries. Nigeria has 2 million entrants including family - that is 1/6 of every entry in the world! At the standard rate on winning Nigeria should have got 24k winners (plus about 12k family members for 36k). However they only got 6k - so that shows they were limited.

Ghana has a VERY unusually low number of derivatives. So they should have got 16k winners and family would have added 2k to that.

Congo DR would only have received 2.1k winners and another 2k family members based on last years entries - but it is likely that DV2014 had more entries and we can't be sure what the winning percentage was this year. However, I think it shows that Congo DR got 6k selectees without being limited at all.

I actually think Ghana shows us that the limit is applied to the principal entry and probably at or around the 7% country limit. Once you add derivatives to those winners you see each country gets around 6k BUT Ghana has such a low derivative ratio that they only get 4k with family.

So a country that is limited gets their entries concentrated in the first 20/30k CNs whereas a non limited country should have winners spread evenly throughout the 116k case numbers.

I hope that explains things...
Click to expand...

Hi friends,

Simon did you validate this theory with DV-2013 data only, I mean Entrants and selected entrants of 2013?
I do believe this is a strong theory of what is hapening during selection

Another thing to mention is I do believe that more special countries in one region lead to a slow VB in the few first months. we can see that with Africa (RD congo) or Asia (Nepal more selectees than last year).
 
now I understand why we have a pseudos like 'loveyoubritsimon' ....:) ....., seriously , thanks too much for the explication, it really opened my eyes, so we can understand that they decide to which country they should apply a filter (reduction of the number of the selectees) before to perform the draw and based on the entrants numbers...., then only the CNs of those countries will be limited to 20k, 30k or 35k, I believe this is unfair because as they are selected and from same region, they should have the same opportunities...

do you think that a country like Congo will delay African CN progression? and even the number of interviews?


britsimon said:
Malcom, Ghana is limited for sure this year - and I can explain.

The limit is applied during the selection process. The rules of the lottery say that everyone within a region should have the same chance of winning. For AF region, let's say that is (for arguments sake) a 1.8% chance of winning for the principal applicant.

We don't have the number of entrants for DV2014 yet so I have to use DV2013 entrant numbers and assume things are similar in DV2014, but let's list the entrants from a few countries, non limited and limited. So I am showing 2013 entrant numbers against 2014 selectee numbers - but you will get the idea.

CountryPrincipalsFamilyTotal1.8% (without Family)Actual selectees (with Family) for 2014Limited?
Morocco983142112911944317692428No
Nigeria13563966191751975571244156043Yes
Ghana9089101471221056032163603945Yes
Congo DR11709211255822965021076025No


OK so looking at that table you can see that some countries have enormous amount of entries. If you compare Morocco to Nigeria you can see the difference in entries. Nigeria has 2 million entrants including family - that is 1/6 of every entry in the world! At the standard rate on winning Nigeria should have got 24k winners (plus about 12k family members for 36k). However they only got 6k - so that shows they were limited.

Ghana has a VERY unusually low number of derivatives. So they should have got 16k winners and family would have added 2k to that.

Congo DR would only have received 2.1k winners and another 2k family members based on last years entries - but it is likely that DV2014 had more entries and we can't be sure what the winning percentage was this year. However, I think it shows that Congo DR got 6k selectees without being limited at all.

I actually think Ghana shows us that the limit is applied to the principal entry and probably at or around the 7% country limit. Once you add derivatives to those winners you see each country gets around 6k BUT Ghana has such a low derivative ratio that they only get 4k with family.

So a country that is limited gets their entries concentrated in the first 20/30k CNs whereas a non limited country should have winners spread evenly throughout the 116k case numbers.

I hope that explains things...
Click to expand...
 
MalcomX said:
now I understand why we have a pseudos like 'loveyoubritsimon' ....:) ....., seriously , thanks too much for the explication, it really opened my eyes, so we can understand that they decide to which country they should apply a filter (reduction of the number of the selectees) before to perform the draw and based on the entrants numbers...., then only the CNs of those countries will be limited to 20k, 30k or 35k, I believe this is unfair because as they are selected and from same region, they should have the same opportunities...

do you think that a country like Congo will delay African CN progression? and even the number of interviews?
Click to expand...


My posts illustrate the point that Raevsky has pointed out before - you call the practice unfair - and Raevsky points out he can't see how it is covered by law. It is not widely published of course - but the numbers are un-arguable.

Congo won't delay progression. Nepal has been holding back AS (because Iran and Nepal have 80% of the early cases between them - however Iran was being processed in 3 embassies whereas Nepal was primarily in one. having 40% of the AS region being processed through one embassy is undoubtedly going to slow things up at first (until Nepal is hit). If we look at AF region, there are more limited countries so progress has been held back up to 30K but will probably start to move faster as the limited countries work through their applicants. Now you understand the process - that should make sense to you..
 
rafikbo76 said:
Hi friends,

Simon did you validate this theory with DV-2013 data only, I mean Entrants and selected entrants of 2013?
I do believe this is a strong theory of what is hapening during selection

Another thing to mention is I do believe that more special countries in one region lead to a slow VB in the few first months. we can see that with Africa (RD congo) or Asia (Nepal more selectees than last year).
Click to expand...


Hi Rafikbo, yes I did the same with 2013 (the analysis is very certain), as has Raevsky and he has explained this in a different way in the wiki. Really, this isn't a theory - it is clear, demonstrated very clearly by the numbers.
 
britsimon said:
Hi Rafikbo, yes I did the same with 2013 (the analysis is very certain), as has Raevsky and he has explained this in a different way in the wiki. Really, this isn't a theory - it is clear, demonstrated very clearly by the numbers.
Click to expand...

OK,

I should read the DV Wiki carefully,
 
interview details

iam from sri lanka......my cn is 2014AS111**
i want to know that when my interview will be sheduled exactly.....?
when will get interview notifications....?
i need britsimon's help....plz help me....
 
safrus said:
iam from sri lanka......my cn is 2014AS111**
i want to know that when my interview will be sheduled exactly.....?
when will get interview notifications....?
i need britsimon's help....plz help me....
Click to expand...


We can't predict AS too well at the moment - we need to see what happens with the net VB or two. At the moment I would guess July for the interview - but best to wait and see.
 
 
Refusals and little sent forms. And guess not. New software eliminates fraudulent applications better.
 
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