sloner axiom :)
- Thread starter vladek15425
- Start date
IheartNY
Active Member
Hey Sloaner, why are we seeing highest CN for OC at 3100 but there are circa 4300 selectees? Odd right? Ive seen lots of CNs under 2000, a reasonable number of CNs in the 2000's but virtually none over 3000. Or am I missing something??
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
that 4300 is selectee and it includes family also so generally the case number are smaller than selectee
IheartNY
Active Member
OK so the CNs arent evenly distributed from 1 through to 4300 (e.g. primary applicant CN OC1 (+ 3 holes for OC1's 3 family members) then CN 5 (+ 2 holes for OC5's 2 family members) etc etc up to e.g. CN 4300) - Instead the primary applicant's CNs are distributed 1 through 3200 (with some holes for other reasons e.g. fraud) and the family members attached to those primary applicants represent "selectees" numbered 3200-4300- so we won't see anyone on these forums with a CN that sits in the family member range? Is there any way to tell how many primary applicants are in that 4300 selectee pool? Or have I just got things arse backwards??
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Rayme
Registered Users (C)
generally what i have seen here is principal to derivative ratio is 1.6 and the derivatives are asigned same case number as of the principal applicant
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
No the family members has no impact on the holes! They are attached to the principal applicant CN.
Ex: you can get oc01 with 10family member, and oc02 iouth holes in between.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Simon you say holes are related to CNs only. ! That's the fisrt holes regarding the cns.
The second-holes are between the selectees since the non send forms won't show on the caec still.
That's why we get the number of selectees on the ceac up to april showing 40k inclunding. Means times its suppose to show mopre selectees !!! And that's because of the second holes.
So the number 40k is not real at all its at least double or nearly by double...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yeah understood - that is what my fourth point there describes - nonrespones cases, and I understand why you want to call them second holes - but the obvious difference is that the selectee might still respond...
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
After 10 months 1st notification, I don't think a lot will come back at this stage! May be 1%.
So simon from october to april they only scheduled 40k is it promissing or not ? For high CNs?
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
http://egypt.usembassy.gov/mobile//consular/iv8.html
For those that wonders how family members gets included into the principal CN, there is duplicates of the same CN that's scheduled
For an interview.......
For those that wonders how family members gets included into the principal CN, there is duplicates of the same CN that's scheduled
For an interview.......
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Simon
These are some of the reasons that might caused a huge drop out (second-holes). BTW some of the same reasons can also be applied for the sent-forms (Readys).
- Main ''Reason'' people forget to check if they ever won.
- People don't understand that they have to keep the Confirmation number at the end, they probably think they will be notified by email. (It happened to me twice).Can you believe it!!!.
- People lose that confirmation number and they don't know how to retrieve it.
- Most of people get subscribed by someone because they don't know how to apply.
- People after winning they realize the cost price of the DV and they just can't effort it ! So they give it up...
- Some realized that their application are incomplete ( forgot to include family members....) So its useless to follow.
- People they don't read english after winning they just think the embassy will contact them on the right time !
- Some realized they overstayed in USA already so they know their application will be rejected!
- Some think they only have to send the forms when being current (remember the f1 student simon).
- Some get their Cns number hold from someone that subscribed them and because they are being black-mailed they give it up !
- People die.
- People change mind after winning !
- People get sick heavy sick.
- Some don't know where to log-in any more to check the result ! They get always those crappy other lottery websites so they don't know any more...!
- Some don't have internet access any more (africa, asia,south-america...)
- Some send forms to the wrong adresse may be to the home country embassy !
- Some forms get lost by the courier company, postal service unworthy ...
There are so many reason that can be added to this, and I agree that is also debatable since its all human reaction and behaviour.
Once again I did extrapolate this huge fallout from the 2 recent DATA giving to us by rafikbo76. And I have explained why did I come with is conclusion.
Now if data is missing huge numbers or corrupted by what ever reason,that obviously will lead my theory to collapse.
Just one more mathematical argument, More selectees more holes! if you ever ask why more than last year
BTW unlike sloner, I do not relate it to any software effect since its all about human effects.
Ps: forum mates feel free to add reasons to explain the second-holes.
These are some of the reasons that might caused a huge drop out (second-holes). BTW some of the same reasons can also be applied for the sent-forms (Readys).
- Main ''Reason'' people forget to check if they ever won.
- People don't understand that they have to keep the Confirmation number at the end, they probably think they will be notified by email. (It happened to me twice).Can you believe it!!!.
- People lose that confirmation number and they don't know how to retrieve it.
- Most of people get subscribed by someone because they don't know how to apply.
- People after winning they realize the cost price of the DV and they just can't effort it ! So they give it up...
- Some realized that their application are incomplete ( forgot to include family members....) So its useless to follow.
- People they don't read english after winning they just think the embassy will contact them on the right time !
- Some realized they overstayed in USA already so they know their application will be rejected!
- Some think they only have to send the forms when being current (remember the f1 student simon).
- Some get their Cns number hold from someone that subscribed them and because they are being black-mailed they give it up !
- People die.
- People change mind after winning !
- People get sick heavy sick.
- Some don't know where to log-in any more to check the result ! They get always those crappy other lottery websites so they don't know any more...!
- Some don't have internet access any more (africa, asia,south-america...)
- Some send forms to the wrong adresse may be to the home country embassy !
- Some forms get lost by the courier company, postal service unworthy ...
There are so many reason that can be added to this, and I agree that is also debatable since its all human reaction and behaviour.
Once again I did extrapolate this huge fallout from the 2 recent DATA giving to us by rafikbo76. And I have explained why did I come with is conclusion.
Now if data is missing huge numbers or corrupted by what ever reason,that obviously will lead my theory to collapse.
Just one more mathematical argument, More selectees more holes! if you ever ask why more than last year
BTW unlike sloner, I do not relate it to any software effect since its all about human effects.
Ps: forum mates feel free to add reasons to explain the second-holes.
Rayme
Registered Users (C)
the reason one i knew personally is, one fren won this year lottery his form was filled by a consultancy he paid fee and went back to his home town... when he contact me i told him once you call or mail KCC about your document he called but KCC said it has not been recieved even after 4 months when he send it... he went back to consultancy to see his form was there with them ...reason of not sending incomplete form even they didnot bother to call him once even he paid courior charge and consultancy charge of like 80$
Simon
These are some of the reasons that might caused a huge drop out (second-holes). BTW some of the same reasons can also be applied for the sent-forms (Readys).
- Main ''Reason'' people forget to check if they ever won.
- People don't understand that they have to keep the Confirmation number at the end, they probably think they will be notified by email. (It happened to me twice).Can you believe it!!!.
- People lose that confirmation number and they don't know how to retrieve it.
- Most of people get subscribed by someone because they don't know how to apply.
- People after winning they realize the cost price of the DV and they just can't effort it ! So they give it up...
- Some realized that their application are incomplete ( forgot to include family members....) So its useless to follow.
- People they don't read english after winning they just think the embassy will contact them on the right time !
- Some realized they overstayed in USA already so they know their application will be rejected!
- Some think they only have to send the forms when being current (remember the f1 student simon).
- Some get their Cns number hold from someone that subscribed them and because they are being black-mailed they give it up !
- People die.
- People change mind after winning !
- People get sick heavy sick.
- Some don't know where to log-in any more to check the result ! They get always those crappy other lottery websites so they don't know any more...!
- Some don't have internet access any more (africa, asia,south-america...)
- Some send forms to the wrong adresse may be to the home country embassy !
- Some forms get lost by the courier company, postal service unworthy ...
There are so many reason that can be added to this, and I agree that is also debatable since its all human reaction and behaviour.
Once again I did extrapolate this huge fallout from the 2 recent DATA giving to us by rafikbo76. And I have explained why did I come with is conclusion.
Now if data is missing huge numbers or corrupted by what ever reason,that obviously will lead my theory to collapse.
Just one more mathematical argument, More selectees more holes! if you ever ask why more than last year
BTW unlike sloner, I do not relate it to any software effect since its all about human effects.
Ps: forum mates feel free to add reasons to explain the second-holes.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Thanks rayme.
Yeah so true some people dont have a clue about how to fillup the forms! So they rely on others to do it for them...and than sometimes it doesnt happen like your friend case.
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Simon
These are some of the reasons that might caused a huge drop out (second-holes). BTW some of the same reasons can also be applied for the sent-forms (Readys).
- Main ''Reason'' people forget to check if they ever won.
- People don't understand that they have to keep the Confirmation number at the end, they probably think they will be notified by email. (It happened to me twice).Can you believe it!!!.
- People lose that confirmation number and they don't know how to retrieve it.
- Most of people get subscribed by someone because they don't know how to apply.
- People after winning they realize the cost price of the DV and they just can't effort it ! So they give it up...
- Some realized that their application are incomplete ( forgot to include family members....) So its useless to follow.
- People they don't read english after winning they just think the embassy will contact them on the right time !
- Some realized they overstayed in USA already so they know their application will be rejected!
- Some think they only have to send the forms when being current (remember the f1 student simon).
- Some get their Cns number hold from someone that subscribed them and because they are being black-mailed they give it up !
- People die.
- People change mind after winning !
- People get sick heavy sick.
- Some don't know where to log-in any more to check the result ! They get always those crappy other lottery websites so they don't know any more...!
- Some don't have internet access any more (africa, asia,south-america...)
- Some send forms to the wrong adresse may be to the home country embassy !
- Some forms get lost by the courier company, postal service unworthy ...
There are so many reason that can be added to this, and I agree that is also debatable since its all human reaction and behaviour.
Once again I did extrapolate this huge fallout from the 2 recent DATA giving to us by rafikbo76. And I have explained why did I come with is conclusion.
Now if data is missing huge numbers or corrupted by what ever reason,that obviously will lead my theory to collapse.
Just one more mathematical argument, More selectees more holes! if you ever ask why more than last year
BTW unlike sloner, I do not relate it to any software effect since its all about human effects.
Ps: forum mates feel free to add reasons to explain the second-holes.
Vadek, I don't disagree with any of those but not a single reason you have given is an explanation of why a higher percentage of people would not respond this year compared to other years. So, I have always agreed and understood that people will not respond - no argument there, but your theory relies on the percentage being higher this year - and I don't think it will. So back to my earlier calculation, in 2013 only around 75k of the 110k selected responded. This year I believe that number will be around 90/95k. Do you disagree?
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Well I will have to disagree a bit on your estimation...
According to the Data I calculated also about 75k people who responded for this year, and if I add some probable missing data and AOS if it doesn't appear on the ceac, than I get about 82k...
So if the readys keeps on expending we might get very closer to current if not current
In the next data capture we will have perhaps a better idea to confirm or infirm this new theory,
Because I believe 6 months process will certainly give us a nearly accurate estimate, I will just have to combined the latest and the newest data...
Hopefully I will right and thanks a lot simon for your time and your helpful inputs.
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Hey peeps !
Guess who's back ?!
Me the real vladek lol
Guess who's back ?!
Me the real vladek lol